Now that the deadline has passed, we can see more clearly that some teams didn't fill all their needs. In particular, the Cubs and Red Sox both needed a top-of-the-rotation starter, and didn't get one. Both are being criticized now for being too value-conscious, and/or too difficult to negotiate with. So let's play some woulda coulda shoulda, and see what might have been.   The Cubs It’s tough to envision the Cubs going deep into the playoffs with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin...

How did our model do at the 2025 deadline?   Starting with the Josh Naylor trade, here’s the scorecard:   Number of trades: 64 Number accepted by the model: 57 Acceptance rate: 88% Average value variance per deal: 3.5   We’re pretty happy with that. The trade market is inherently inefficient, and there are multiple variables involved, so to go 57-7 feels good. Also, it’s a bit of an improvement on last year, where our acceptance rate was 83% and the average...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Prominent trade candidates Jarren Duran Field value: 94.1 Salary owed: 40 Surplus: 54.1 (⬇️) The Rafael Devers trade may have cooled off...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Prominent trade candidates Jarren Duran Field value: 102.7 Salary owed: 40.3 Surplus: 62.5 (⬇️) Duran has been in the rumor mill of late,...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates   Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 13 Salary owed: 11.7 Surplus: 1.3 (⬆️) Robert has perked up a tiny bit (maybe...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates   Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 12.6 Salary owed: 12.3 Surplus: 0.3 (⬇️) Robert continues to trend down, because as...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This will be an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 14.4 Salary owed: 12.8 Surplus: 1.6 (⬇️) Despite some improvement, Robert is still...

Yes, it’s only May, but we’re getting to the point of the season where trade deadline considerations will start to emerge from each team – on both the selling and buying side. To be clear, it’s too early for most teams to pick a lane. But there are a few obvious sellers, and a few trade candidates worth keeping an eye on. But what’s unique about this year so far is that the oft-rumored-about players are not doing well. They’re performing below expectations...

Now that we’re well into the 2025 season, it’s time to do our semi-annual check of our model’s correlation to the market this past offseason. Along the way, we’ll throw in a few observations in trade market trends. Let’s get to the results. By our count, for the 2024/25 offseason: Number of trades: 81 Number of trades accepted by our model: 77 Acceptance rate: 95.1% Average variance (in absolute value terms): 2.5 So there were 81 trades, of which 77 fell into...

Want to work for BTV? We have an opening for a part-time data analyst. This is a paid position. We're looking for someone who can help update our model behind the scenes, run updates, and contribute ideas to make the site -- and our data -- even better. If interested, please email us at: baseballtradevalues@gmail.com In your email, let us know about your relevant experience (include a resume if possible), and why you're interested.