Isaac Paredes has been one of the most-rumored trade candidates this offseason, largely because the Astros have an infield glut, and they’re not sure where to play him. They’ve been in serious discussions with multiple teams, yet Spring Training has begun, and Paredes is still an Astro. 

 

What gives?

 

Surplus value

First off, the Astros are probably seeking more value in trade than our estimated surplus value of $12.9M. But let’s break that down: He has only two years of team control remaining, and he’s getting expensive. Our model gets his surplus number by estimating $36.2M in field value (roughly equivalent to his theoretical free agent value on a 2-year deal), minus $23.3M in salary (he’s earning $9.35M this year, and figures to get about a 50% raise on that next year to $14M, in his final arbitration year). Any team trading for him would have to pay that, which is why they’d be rightly reluctant to give up much more than $12.9M in player capital in a trade.

 

Defense

Of further concern: He also has no ideal defensive home. He’s spent most of his career at 3B, and despite rumors of the Astros considering him at 2B, the fact is, he hasn’t played there since 2022. He might be able to handle 1B, but he’s only played there about 10% as much as he has at 3B. So any team trading for him figures to be one who could use him at 3B, primarily.

 

Offense

Offensively, meanwhile, he’s a strange case. Paredes is an extreme pull hitter, with little else to offer. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, but when he does, it often flies over the left-field fence – that is, if that fence is short.

In order to capitalize on his unique profile, he has to play in a park that fits him just right – one with a short left-field porch. In other words, in Houston.

At Daikin Park last year, Paredes pulled 11 HRs into the Crawford boxes. Interestingly, though, he was expected to hit 22 HRs at Daikin last year. So he was only about half as effective as he should have been, with his one main trick. 

And no other park comes close in expected HR terms. According to Statcast, the nearest one – Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia – would have had him hit 17 over the fence. 

So if he were traded, it would need to be to a team where the park fits his profile, AND to a contending team, with budget room to pay his salary. At this point in the offseason, where most teams have 3B covered and their budgets are spent, his options are limited. Let’s look at two possibilities:

 

Phillies

Expected HRs: 17, or 23% less xHRs than in Houston

In a scenario where he’s traded to Philly to replace Alec Bohm (who could then be traded elsewhere), his pull power would be 23% less effective than in Houston. That means those other fly balls would either bounce off the left field wall (and be fielded well by opposing LFs, who’d be in position for that) or turn into routine outs.

 

Red Sox

Expected HRs: 16, or 27% less xHRs than in Houston

Here, his pull power would be 27% less effective. One could argue that some of those fly balls would bounce off the Green Monster a bit more in Fenway, but even those would probably end up as merely long singles, given Paredes’ lack of speed. So why would the Red Sox pay retail price (in trade value) for a glorified singles hitter?

 

Other options?

Our current estimate of Paredes’ trade value is market-neutral, but the point here is that if he were traded to any other team, they might justifiably offer less than our estimate, because his power production would be hampered by the park he plays in half of the year.

That all could very well explain why Paredes, despite the rumors, is still on the Astros.