History

Track Record

In addition to providing forward-looking valuation estimates, we also track how our model is doing against real-life trades. Here’s our scorecard since August 2019:

716

Real-life Trades

676

Trades Accepted by Our Model

94.4%

Acceptance Rate

1.9

Average Margin of Error

Recent Trades We Got Right

Rays GET

Aidan Smith

2.5

Brody Hopkins

5.2

Total Value

7.7

Mariners GET

Randy Arozarena

7.3

Total Value

7.3

ShaquilleOatmeal

Padres GET

Dylan Cease

42.4

Total Value

42.4

White Sox GET

Steven Wilson

4.4

Samuel Zavala

11

Jairo Iriarte

10.6

Drew Thorpe

18.5

Total Value

44.5

johnbitzer

Orioles GET

Corbin Burnes

33.8

Total Value

33.8

Brewers GET

DL Hall

18.9

Joey Ortiz

13.6

Round A Comp Balance Pick

4

Total Value

36.5

derrik_maguire

Astros GET

Justin Verlander

-11

Cash

35

Total Value

24

Mets GET

Ryan Clifford

7.8

Drew Gilbert

13.1

Total Value

20.9

johnbitzer

Mets GET

Luisangel Acuna

20.1

Total Value

20.1

Rangers GET

Max Scherzer

-16.4

Cash

36.6

Total Value

20.2

johnbitzer

Cardinals GET

John King

0.1

Tekoah Roby

4.7

Thomas Saggese

2.4

Total Value

7.2

Rangers GET

Jordan Montgomery

7.4

Chris Stratton

1

Total Value

8.4

johnbitzer

Cardinals GET

Cesar Prieto

2.4

Drew Rom

2.2

Total Value

4.6

Orioles GET

Jack Flaherty

3.6

Total Value

3.6

johnbitzer

Athletics GET

Ryan Cusick

5.4

Joey Estes

2.6

Shea Langeliers

27.8

Cristian Pache

7.5

Total Value

43.3

Braves GET

Matt Olson

45.3

Total Value

45.3

johnbitzer

Guardians GET

Kyle Manzardo

21.2

Total Value

21.2

Rays GET

Aaron Civale

26.4

Total Value

26.4

johnbitzer

Brewers GET

Abraham Toro

0

Jesse Winker

1.8

Total Value

1.8

Mariners GET

Kolten Wong

0.1

Cash

1.75

Total Value

1.85

johnbitzer

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