Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series.

Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:

 

Trade candidates

 

Luis Robert Jr.

• Field value: 13
• Salary owed: 11.7
• Surplus: 1.3 (⬆️)
  

Robert has perked up a tiny bit (maybe it’s all those stolen bases). But as of this writing, his numbers on the year are still quite poor (66 WRC+, 0 fWAR). He’ll bring back a low-level prospect, but that’s it.

 

Sandy Alcantara

• Field value: 66.2
• Salary owed: 49
• Surplus: 17.2 (⬇️)

Alcantara had yet another bad outing, giving up 6 earned runs in 4 innings against the Padres. His value has decreased, but only a little. His strong track record of previous success is still bolstering his projections, as most systems envision positive regression. Still, he won’t bring a haul – just a decent (50-ish) prospect and maybe one more.

 

Miguel Andujar

• Field value: 6.6
• Salary owed: 1.9
• Surplus: 4.6 (⬆️)

The A’s rosy start has given way to reality, and now they’re back to being assumed sellers at the deadline. Andujar is an obvious trade chip for them, as his bat has been very productive, while the 30-year-old does not fit their future plans. You know who could use a right-handed third baseman? His old pals the Yankees. (Or not.) In any case, at a value of 4.6, he should bring back a mid-to-lower level prospect.

 

Nathanael Lowe

• Field value: 6.7
• Salary owed: 6.7
• Surplus: 0.1 (⬇️)

Several teams (like the Red Sox) are in the market for a first baseman, and Lowe is reportedly available. He won’t cost much in prospect capital (a minor prospect at most), as he’s neither all that productive (90 WRC+, -0.1 fWAR) nor all that cheap in salary terms.

 

Other notables:

Rockies pitchers:

The Rockies don’t usually trade away pitchers, but this year might be different, as Kyle Freeland is on a team going nowhere for a while. Interestingly, his away splits (4.25 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.44 xFIP) are much better than his home splits (7.71 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 3.85 xFIP). And his player option for 2027 is unlikely to vest as it’s under team control, so we assume he has 1.6 years of control remaining. He’s only slightly negative relative to his contract now, with a surplus value of -1.9, but it wouldn’t surprise us if he actually returned a minor prospect due to those splits. A trade to get him out of Coors would benefit everyone. 

German Marquez, meanwhile, is a true rental. He’s been equally mid both home and away, with a ghastly 7.13 ERA mitigated somewhat by a less scary 4.14 FIP. Still, his Savant page is mostly blue (which is bad), he sports a well-below-average xwOBA (.348), and one of the lowest K rates in the league. Meanwhile, he’s still owed $6.5M for the remainder of his walk year. All of that is why his value is at a low 3.1, which means he’ll likely just return a minor prospect.

Their best reliever is Jake Bird, who’s having his best season yet, with a sub-2 ERA and a sub-3 xwOBA, but since he’s still under control for 3.6 more years, he’s probably not going anywhere. If he was a lights-out closer, maybe, but he’s not. The Rockies typically keep his type around. If they did dangle him, his value of 8.6 is high enough to bring back at least a 45-level prospect, and given the volatility of relievers, it’s something they should consider.

 

Are the Reds sellers yet?

The Reds are not out of it yet, but their playoff odds are down to single digits, and it feels like they just can’t get on track to make a run. Time is running out before they have to pick a lane, and increasingly, it seems they’re more likely to be sellers than buyers. They've just unloaded reliever Alexis Diaz to the Dodgers for a depth minor-leaguer. So what else do they have to sell?

Nick Martinez is having a fine year, so much so that he’s outperforming his QO contract (by a hair). And given the demand for pitching (as well as his versatility), he figures to be one of the top trade targets on the market. He’s a rental, performing well on a subpar team. His value is now up to 1.0, which could increase based on supply/demand factors, and also if the Reds kick in some money to get a better prospect return than a token one in a salary dump… Another rental, Austin Hays is hitting well, and multiple teams are looking for RH bats. With a surplus value of 2.9, he’ll bring back a minor prospect… Several Reds bullpen arms figure to be moved, most notably Emilio Pagan, who has closing experience, as well as excellent peripherals and Statcast numbers, but is a bit overpaid. But in a light market for relievers, he’ll likely command a bit more in trade beyond the -2.6 number we have. That’s also possible for Taylor Rogers (-2.1), a lefty specialist, and possibly Brent Suter (-1.5).

 

Non-trade candidates

Juan Soto is off to a cold start, and – not that he’d ever be traded – his surplus value has declined a little, to 51.3… Jo Adell (0.4) is probably a bust, as the Angels’ signing of veteran Chris Taylor signals the end of the road for this former top prospect, who continues to not hit (.196 average, -0.3 fWAR). He’s out of options, so a DFA may be coming… Willy Adames (-62.1) continues to struggle, and his surplus value continues to decline as the season-long slump wears on. This contract could turn out badly… And speaking of overpaid infielders, Marcus Semien (-68.3) looks cooked. He’s hitting .173 with a 42 WRC+ and -0.3 fWAR, and is still owed $88.9M over the next 3.6 years. The Rangers have a predicament on their hands.