Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Smith | 20 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | ||
| Brody Hopkins | 22 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 6.2 |
Total Value:
7.7
Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 2.4 | 22.7 | 15.4 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 8.7 |
Total Value:
7.3
Comments
14
Welp...as much as I believed this site's valuation of Arozarena was wrong...they were spot on and I was way off. Good job John. For mp and I dammit I hate this return. They are soooo desperate, and have such great pitching and OF to choose from, and we got none of the good ones. I will never question this site's valuations again. I could not have been more wrong, and sadly, you guys nailed this.
I'd expect an overpay for Arozarena as a deadline acquisition.
Aiden Smith being worth 2.5 is a joke by the way... He's way better than that... Look at his numbers this season and you will see why...
Prospect evaluators are looking at much more than just stats. He's not high on any lists we check.
He's with Chourio/Genao on the Cleveland's group list... Just don't be surprised if he really jumps up in the offseason... Ps. Then again Guardians are notorious for keeping national media away from their prospects and practices so we always had to make our own list...
There is a rumor that the PTBNL is one of Cole Phillips (0.4) or Teddy McGraw (0.2).... https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/randy-arozarena-deal-done-could-mariners-make-another-move-before-deadline/
I also heard Farmelo. We will see...
Who ended up being the PTBNL ?
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Ohhh. PTBNL too. About .1% of me is holding out hope it's Matt Brash and the Rays are wanting their docs to get a look at him. Otherwise, last year's 4th and 6th rounders for a perennial 3 win OF seems incredibly light. Aroz has a 160 wRC+ June and July. This just doesn't make much sense for the Rays to put Deluca and Palios into a platoon for such a lite return. MP has been on Aidan Smith for a while. Good catch. My hope is Chandler Simpson gets the call from AA to replace Aroz. Not much more he can prove by hitting .350 off future big leaguers.
Shaq - You could be right on Simpson, but I think Palacios has been cementing his status as an every day player for the Rays for the past month and he will just take over LF going forward. He may top out around 110 wRC+ (as compared to Randy's 125 wRC+), but his defense and effort are far superior to Randy's. I expect at least 2 fWAR out of him going forward, in comparison to Randy's 2.5 to 3.0 fWAR. Still, there is an open 40 man spot now, and it will probably be filled by Simpson, Misner or Mangum. On A.Smith, I think you'll like him in time. He's hitting .872 OPS (136 wRC+) in A ball, with just a 24.3% K rate, and because he was only 17 when drafted, he won't be Rule 5 eligible until 2027. MLB gives him a 55 hit tool and 50 power tool, while also saying they see the potential for 60 grade power in him. If he reaches that potential (55 hit; 60 power; 60 arm; 60 speed; 55 field), he's a top 3 prospect for the Rays in a year or two. I'm a big fan... Still, I'd like this trade to include Brash.
The last PTBNL was Baz so there still is hope and if it's someone like that then it does throw the evaluation off quite a bit, I think it has to likely be someone injured or possibly be from this past draft the reason they can't be announced yet so there is hope but I think it's linked to the smartest kid in the room syndrome that the RFO has, I can't think of any of the 156 trades with Seattle where much worked out other than Zunino but these 2 guys have promise but time will tell, hard to be excited about this trade, hopefully it means the start of waving the white flag on 2024 and moving some players.
LOL... I will remain a pain in the arse, questioning the values of all players I like (and dislike). But in fairness, I did try to couch all my Aroz objections as "if Randy only has $7MM in trade value, the Rays won't be trading him at the Deadline" as opposed to "BTV is wrong, wrong I tell you!!!" As for the trade itself, I love the A.Smith part of the trade. He has future stud written all over him, with plus to plus plus potential with the bat and in the field. Hopkins is a fine prospect, but I don't see a TOR or anything there (and I think he's overvalued while A.Smith is undervalued). Then there is the PTBNL, and while I understand it cannot be a 2024 draftee or someone on the 40 man, can it be someone on the 60 day IL? Because, like Shaq, I'm hoping for Brash here. That would make the trade make sense. Otherwise, I'm pretty surprised the Rays traded Aroz for this return while being just on the outside of playoff contention. One thing is clear though. If the Rays were willing to move Aroz, they are 100% open for business now. None of this "Rays will be buyers and sellers BS I keep reading." They just shot their playoff hopes in the foot and should definitely be looking to trade Rosario, Eflin, one or both of Adam and Fairbanks, and either Diaz or Paredes. I do not expect B.Lowe to be traded.
I guess my biggest problem with the trade is what you got to at the end...it's now the end. 5 games out, and we're trading 3 win OF for A ball guys with no OF to plug in. They didn't have to trade him, but if they did, I would understand it if they got blown away by a desperate team and truly couldn't say no. The Mariners are extremely desperate, and this is not a "truly couldn't say no deal, we had to make the deal and give up on the season" return. It better include Brash. If it does, I'm okay with watching a good team go away, but if not, this is the return I expected for Adam and Littell, not 3 postseasons of one of the more exciting players in the sport. Aidan Smith might be something, but a 130 wRC+ in A ball out of a 6th rounder shouldn't headline this deal in my opinion.
I saw you on some of my trades with Arozorena, I think what you were missing was that the Rays don't care about extracting every last bit of value out of their outgoing trade assets. The primary transaction they look for is trade the higher-priced player for minor-league prospects. Rays have a formula and they stick to it. In a year Arozorena will be making more money, so they would've been banking on him raking right out of the gate. That could happen, but there's a risk that he's just ok, or slow to begin 2025, in which case they get even less than they got in this trade. There was significant risk in bringing him back in 2025 for the sole purpose of maximizing their return for him.