Edwin Diaz. Jose Altuve. Rhys Hoskins. Gavin Lux. Brendan Rodgers. All are injured and out for significant portions of the 2023 season (in the cases of Diaz, Hoskins and Lux, it looks like the entire season), so their respective teams would be wise to test the trade market for replacement help. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ rotation has been decimated, at least temporarily. Luis Severino, Carlos Rodon, and Frankie Montas are all on the IL. Clarke Schmidt has gone from likely bullpen arm to...

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) discuss some puzzling Rockies transactions. Then, they explore the offseason outlooks for the recently eliminated Cardinals and Yankees, as well as an upcoming roster crunch in Cleveland. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or download link below:   Download link:...

Editor's note: We're re-promoting this story from September, 2020 in light of the news that Nolan Arenado has been traded to St. Louis. Although we were wrong about whether the Rockies would trade him, the analysis of his valuation should be just as relevant now. Will Nolan Arenado be traded this offseason? The rumor mill has already started. With another season of failure in the books for the Rockies, the obvious conclusion would be to suggest there will be personnel changes. And Arenado...

In this episode, we dig into the numbers behind recent extensions for Yelich and Moncada, discuss the impact of injuries on trade value, and highlight the featured trade of the week, which sees a star and two other pieces traded for a prospect. If you have any questions or suggestions, email us at BaseballTradeValues@gmail.com or find us on Twitter, @BaseballValues! Listen in the player, click the link below to download or find us through your favorite podcast...

Now that [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="7589"]has openly voiced his frustrations about his situation in Colorado, his relationship with the Rockies seems to have passed the point of no return. A trade now seems inevitable. Relatedly, the Rockies’ near-term future looks challenging at best. They finished in last place in 2019, completely collapsing after their playoff run in 2018. They did nothing to improve the major-league team this offseason (which is one reason why...

It’s mid-January; time to take stock. How is our model doing vs. real life?   As of January 18: Total trades: 36 Total trades accepted by our model: 30 Acceptance rate: 83.3% Variance: +/- 4.2 Basically, the model has been right five out of every six trades, and overall the numbers have held up reasonably. As a reminder, we keep a running tally of all trades, log each one individually on our site, and keep score via these tracker updates, so you can see how the model is faring...

Recently, on an episode of MLB Tonight, John Smoltz was asked to compare the difference between signing Josh Donaldson or trading for [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="7589"]. His response was, to paraphrase: Donaldson doesn’t cost anything in prospects, but if Arenado was available? You’d have to “back up the truck.” In other words, he thinks trading for Arenado would cost a huge prospect haul. With all due respect to Smoltz, he is not a GM. He assumes...

Recent reports suggest the Rockies are seriously entertaining the idea of trading Nolan Arenado [27.7], who is of course their franchise player and one of the best in baseball. Setting aside the issue of why, let’s break down how we’ve arrived at our median estimate. But admittedly, it's tricky. Salary and control Arenado is guaranteed $234M over the next seven years -- $35M per year over the next five (lined up with his peak period), then cascading down to $32M in 2025 and $27M...

If you’re a GM, this is the list you don’t want to have your players on. According to our calculations, the following 50 players have the least amount of trade value right now – or, put another way, the most amount of negative value. These are not necessarily bad players; they’re players whose contracts are bigger than their projected field value. Not surprisingly, the common thread here is that most of them are older and past their prime. Only eight of these 50...