Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: “They shouldn’t trade him now. He’ll be worth more at the deadline.”

But is that really true? Or just a popular misconception?

Let’s dig into some numbers to find out. We’ll look at a few scenarios – rentals (those players with only one year of control left), those with multiple years of control, all using current run-rate projections. We’ll also separate position players and pitchers.

Rentals

First up, a rental hitter.

Ian Happ, Cubs

Ian Happ is one of the only viable center fielders in a market that is starved for them. Should the Cubs entertain trade offers for him? They may or may not be contending for a wild card this year. The most likely scenario is that they hold onto him, see how their season goes, then reassess at the deadline. But from a value perspective, does it make more sense to trade him now? Here’s what the numbers say:

Timeframe	Years of Control	AFV	Salary	Surplus
Offseason	1.0	26.1	10.8	15.3
Deadline	0.33	12.1	3.6	8.5

Conclusion: Trade now

If the Cubs wait until the deadline, Happ would return about half as much. That’s because the erosion of time affects the bigger field value number more than the smaller salary number, with the overall effect of reducing the surplus.

Keep in mind the calculations here include:

• *An extra month of field value, considering Happ would likely be traded to a playoff contender, who could use him in October; note that this extra month is not baked into his salary, since players are not paid by their teams in October (they’re paid out of a bonus pool from the league), so it’s essentially a free potential month of high-value production for a team.
• *An extra $2M of field value to represent the likelihood of draft pick compensation that the Cubs would be giving up if Happ were to be extended a Qualifying Offer and decline it (and given current projections, he would seem to be a candidate). Note that this is only appended to his value now; once the season starts, this bonus goes away, as a player can only be extended a QO if he’s on the same team all season; a trade would eliminate it.

 

So the Cubs’ front office has to weigh the benefit of keeping Happ’s services to see if they can contend against the added value he’d bring in trade right now. It’s a harder decision, because they’re a team on the bubble. But solely from a valuation perspective, it would make more sense to trade him now.

Now let’s compare that to a player who doesn’t have as much surplus value – a reliever with one year of control left, like, say:

Dylan Floro, Marlins

Timeframe	Years of Control	AFV	Salary	Surplus
Offseason	1.0	6.3	3.9	2.4
Deadline	0.33	3.5	1.3	2.2

Conclusion: Hold, trade at the deadline

This one actually held pretty flat. That’s because, in theory, any team trading for a veteran rental reliever at the deadline would be in contention, and would plan to use Floro in the postseason, thereby triggering that potential extra free month of service, as with Happ above. There’s also the market liquidity benefit – multiple teams will need reliever upgrades, which raises the possibility of an overpay.

So if you’re the Marlins, holding him is a win/win. Keep him around to see if he can help you in the first half of the season, so you benefit from his field contributions; if you’re out of it, sell for the same price or possibly better.

Non-rentals

What about non-rentals? Let’s check, say:

Bryan Reynolds, Pirates

Timeframe	Years of Control	AFV	Salary	Surplus
Offseason	3.0	98	33.8	64.2
Deadline	2.33	81.7	29.2	52.5

Conclusion: Lean slightly towards trading now

Yes, Reynolds’ value goes down in this scenario, but not by all that much. There’s still a lot of surplus left in the remaining years. This is perhaps why the Pirates don’t feel an urgency to trade him now – heck, they could keep him on the off chance they get sneaky good this year and try for a wild-card spot. 

Then again, it’s a difference of $11.7M in projected surplus value, which, to a team like the Pirates, is significant, and they’re unlikely to contend this year, so they should sell now. From a market perspective, since Reynolds can play a passable center field, it’s also a good time to capitalize on the high demand/low supply dynamic for those types.

Now let’s try a starting pitcher with more than one year of control.

J.T. Brubaker, Pirates

Timeframe	Years of Control	AFV	Salary	Surplus
Offseason	3.0	26.4	13.7	12.8
Deadline	2.33	21.8	12.1	9.7

Conclusion: Toss-up; lean slightly towards trading now

We’re assuming here that Brubaker is just good enough to qualify for the October bonus – he might not make the top three on a contending rotation in the playoffs, but he could at least eat some innings in that scenario.

So given that, similar to Reynolds above, the Pirates would get a little more by trading him now, although it’s not a slam-dunk.

What about a veteran reliever with more than one year of control?

Scott Barlow, Royals

Timeframe	Years of Control	AFV	Salary	Surplus
Offseason	2.0	26	13.3	12.7
Deadline	1.33	19	9.7	9.3

Conclusion: Trade now

Even though relievers are always in the demand at the deadline, the Royals would be a bit better off trading Barlow now, because he’s still relatively cheap for the production he brings, such that a big chunk of the surplus value is in 2023. 

If they waited, they’d burn through that. Granted, maybe the Royals want to try to compete this year, in which case, sure, go for it – they’re not losing that much value. On the other hand, this is a case where it might make more sense to sell high, use the proceeds to improve the team in other ways, and backfill.

Summary

It looks like, in most cases, that it’s better to trade a good player in the offseason rather than wait until the deadline – despite the favorable dynamics in July. Unless the team plans on competing seriously, and thus consuming the value in the first ⅔ of the year, they’re generally better off trading the entire year’s worth of value (in addition to any remaining years’ worth, and any potential bonus value from October and/or QO draft picks). The one possible exception seems to be with rental relievers.