The Blue Jays finally appear to be at the point where they’ve thrown in the towel on the season – reportedly, they’re now open to trading veteran players on expiring contracts.

But not Vlad or Bo. Why is that? Let’s explore what might be going on there, both from the Blue Jays’ point of view and that of the market.

 

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

Projected trade deadline values:

• AFV: $41.3M
• Salary: $36.4M
• Surplus: $4.9M
  

 

It’s complicated – more so than it looks.

From the point of view of a potential acquiring team, they’d be getting an impact bat, for sure. But Vlad is not a complete player – he’s a negative both defensively and on the basepaths. That’s why, despite a 131 WRC+, he has only 1.5 fWAR so far this season. 

Granted, some team might be willing to overlook those flaws because they need the bat – fair enough. We know, here at BTV, that teams tend to prioritize offense over defense and baserunning, so we’ve baked that into our model already. We’ve also baked in the potential free value Guerrero would provide to a potential playoff team in a postseason scenario (it’s free because players are paid out of a league pool in the playoffs, not by their teams, which effectively increases their surplus value).

 

Follow the money

But the real issue is money. Guerrero is making $19.9M this year. If he were to be traded at the deadline, he’d be owed $6.6M for the remainder of this year. Granted, that’s not going to break the bank for some contenders, but it might limit the pool of others who are trying to stay under the luxury tax limit. 

By our modeling, two months of production in August and September of this year (plus a potential postseason bonus month) will be worth $11M. (For a sense check, that translates to a $33M AAV in free-agent value terms. Seems about right.) So at the deadline, his 2024 surplus value is only $4.4M ($11M-$6.6M).

But now let’s talk about 2025. Guerrero figures to make close to $30M in his final year of arbitration (arb salaries build on each other year over year; the average raise from the second arb year to the third one is 50%, and is especially true if the player puts up strong offensive numbers, as Guerrero is doing this year). 

Is he worth that? Yes, but it’s a close call – so much so, that, based on our modeling, there’s very little surplus value at that point. We calculate that he’ll be worth $30.3M against a salary of $29.8M, or $0.5M in surplus value. In other words, most of the surplus value an acquiring team is receiving is built into the remainder of this year.

Totalling up those two scenarios gives us $4.9M in surplus value.

Now remember, surplus value is not the same as field value. 1 ⅓ years of Guerrero’s production is worth $41.3M in field value. The problem is that he’s set to earn $36.4M in salary over that timeframe, which eats up most of it. 

So any team that acquires him would only do so if they can afford to accommodate his close-to-$30M salary hit in next year’s budget. That’s basically like signing a big free agent contract now. Since a lot of the big contending teams who could afford Vlad in theory also have other big contracts on the books, this one would either put them over the luxury tax, or trigger other moves to get those other salaries off the books. And that is usually easier said than done.

Meanwhile, from the Jays’ point of view, a surplus value of only $4.9M at the deadline isn’t going to yield much of a return. That’s essentially one 45-rated pitcher.

 

What if they kicked in some cash?

Okay, but let’s imagine the Blue Jays would be willing to cover some of Guerrero’s salary in order to increase the trade return. Let’s say they kick in $20M. That would effectively net them a prospect package worth around $24.9M, right?

Nope. The problem is, the Jays cannot kick in that much cash, because you can only do that with players on fixed contracts, where the money is guaranteed. Arbitration deals are not guaranteed in advance – theoretically, Guerrero could break his leg this year and be non-tendered for 2025.

So the most cash the Jays could possibly include is the remainder of this year’s salary above the pro-rated league minimum, which is about $6M. That would, in theory, net them a prospect package worth $10.9M in surplus value. That’s better, but it’s still not franchise-altering. That might get them one prospect at the back of a Top 100 list, or two at the back of an average team’s Top 10 list.

Given all that, it’s not surprising that the Toronto front office has little interest in trading Vladdy – there’s just not a favorable scenario that would justify it. They might as well hold on to him, try to compete with him again next year, and keep him as a fan favorite to sell tickets.

 

Bo Bichette

Projected trade deadline values:

• AFV: $37.6M
• Salary: $20.1M
• Surplus: $17.5M

 

So if it makes more sense to hold onto Vladdy for one more year, why trade Bo? 

One reason: There’s more surplus value there. Despite Bichette’s no-good, awful, terrible year (which has certainly diminished his trade value), he’s still worth $19.3M in surplus as of this writing. That’s because of his track record, shortstop positional benefit, and lower salary than Vlad. 

From the deadline through 2025, Bichette’s estimated field value is $37.6M, against a salary of $20.1M, netting a deadline surplus value of $17.5M. That’ll get you a mid-Top 100 prospect, or a package of a back-end Top 100 prospect and a 45–rated pitcher. 

Unlike Vlad, Bo’s contract is fixed, because he signed an extension in early 2023 that bought out his remaining arbitration years. So in this case, the Jays could kick in as much cash as they want, covering all but the league minimum for both the remainder of 2024 and all of 2025. That amounts to almost $19M. So that would create a surplus value of $36.5M, which would net them a very strong prospect package.

And from the acquiring team’s point of view, they’d be buying low in the hopes that Bichette returns to previous form through age 27, which is often a peak year.

 

Okay, but...

There are two problems, however. One is that, in most cases, buyers at the deadline are looking for impact and certainty. Bichette’s 69 WRC+ and 0.1 fWAR hardly suggests impact. And if you’re going to cough up an expensive project package for a guy who isn’t hitting, and whose defense is suspect to boot, what are you doing?

The second reason is that if the Jays are holding onto Vlad, hoping for one last shot with this core in 2025, trading Bo contradicts that strategy. Granted, that all hinges on the assumption that Bo climbs out of his slump, at least a bit, and returns to his normal self.

Still, it’s unlikely that an acquiring team would overpay for a guy slumping this badly, so the decision will likely make itself.

Toronto fans, it looks like you’re keeping this band together one more year.