Which MLB organizations are better at winning more with less? Who gets the most bang for the buck? 

One feature of our site that is available to GM subscribers is our Team Rankings page, which lists all 30 teams in various categories, including field value, salary, and surplus value. Surplus value, in turn, can be filtered by levels – majors, minors, and total. 

Majors Surplus Value measures the degree to which teams are maximizing their budget to win at that level. After all, every team owner sets the budget, and it’s up to the front office to maximize that on the field, so that’s an important measure. Minors Surplus Value is essentially a measure of the strength of the farm system, since each prospect in our model is listed by their surplus value. 

Total Surplus Value combines both of those inputs into one overarching metric, to show which teams are the most efficiently managed overall. 

So let’s take a look at which teams are the best at doing that – and which teams are not.

 

Top 5 teams by Total Surplus Value (in $ millions):

 

• 1. Mariners: 808.5
• 2. Orioles: 804.7
• 3. Royals: 786.9
• 4. Rays: 758.1
• 5. Reds: 743.1

 

Note that these aren’t necessarily the best teams by record – after all, only two of these look like good bets to make the playoffs this season – but they all are reasonably competitive on a budget, and tend to have younger, cheaper talent on the field and/or in the pipeline.

The Mariners top this list for a few reasons. First, their rotation is one of the best in the league, and four out of five of their starters are young and cheap – George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller. Second, Julio Rodriguez’s team-friendly contract carries a fair amount of weight, as do, to a lesser extent, good young players with high surplus values, like Cal Raleigh and Andres Munoz. Finally, they have one of the strongest farm systems in baseball, with six players in Baseball America’s Top 100.

So despite their disappointing season, they look like a well-run organization, which suggests that Jerry Dipoto may have more job security than most fans think.

The Orioles are a close second, to no surprise. GM Mike Elias has built a juggernaut of a team organically, with a boatload of young talent, and more coming still.

The Royals are benefiting largely from Bobby Witt, Jr., whose combination of high productivity, youth and relatively low salary (due to a very team-friendly contract) makes him the most valuable player in baseball from a front-office perspective. Other young players on the team, such as Cole Ragans, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia, add more to the total value, although the farm is still a work in progress.

Rounding out the top five, the presence of the Rays on this list should surprise no one, as they are an efficiency machine; and the Reds have a bounty of young talent both on the field and on the farm.

Notably, none of these teams has a true albatross contract on their hands. The Mariners have two Mitches – Haniger and Garver – whose contracts are underwater, but not egregiously so. Salvador Perez is the only significant underwater contract on the Royals. Jeimer Candelario is the only questionable contract on the Reds. The Orioles and Rays’ respective books are essentially clean – something all teams would like to claim.

So who are the least cost-efficient teams?

 

The Bottom 5 Teams by Total Surplus Value (in $ millions):

 

• 26. Yankees: 240.5
• 27. Blue Jays: 155.2
• 28. Rockies: 124.1
• 29. Angels: 54.9
• 30. Padres: -17.0

 

Let’s look at these from worst to least worst.

In 30th place, the Padres have the unusual distinction of being the only team in our model with total negative surplus value, at -17. In other words, they have more money committed to their players than the expected production of those players. Granted, if they win the World Series this year, it probably won’t matter, but in the long run, this could really hurt.

They have several big contracts on the books that are severely underwater. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and even Fernando Tatis, Jr. all project to be overpaid relative to their production over time. And as they age, this will get worse, not better. 

The good news is, these are all good players right now, which is why the Padres are 4th in Majors Field Value in our model, at $1,245.8; but those huge financial commitments total $1,390.2, and the value in their relatively weak farm (now ranked 26th in our model, due to trades) isn’t enough to close the gap. So that makes them the least-efficiently run team in baseball. If they don’t make a run in the playoffs this year, A.J. Preller may be on the hot seat. Go big or go home.

In 29th place are the Angels, with only $54.9M in total surplus value. Two huge underwater contracts in Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are weighing them down, and beyond that, there’s just not a lot of talent here. They’re 25th in Majors Field Value, as you might expect with a weak MLB team, and their farm is ranked 29th in our model. So, yeah, not much coming. The good news is that they’re promoting their prospects quickly in the hopes that they infuse some energy at the MLB level. But most are not quite established yet, and disappointing performances from former top picks like Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak are not helping.

In 28th place are the Rockies, whose profile is similar to the Angels – bad contracts, bad MLB team, meh farm. They’re being dragged down by their disastrous Kris Bryant contract, and to a lesser extent, underwater contracts on Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela. They’re 29th in Majors Field Value – no surprise – and their farm is middling, in 16th place.

The Blue Jays are in 27th place (4th worst) due primarily to the underwater contracts of Jose Berrios and George Springer, and to a lesser extent, decent but overpaid players like Chris Bassitt, Chad Green, and Kevin Gausman. They’re 28th in Majors Field Value, reflecting the fact that the team essentially fell apart this year; and the farm is 27th, offering little hope of immediate help.

Finally, in 26th place (5th worst) in the efficiency category are the Yankees. Always big spenders, they’re never going to be anyone’s idea of an efficiently run organization, even if Hal Steinbrenner would like them to move more in that direction. They’re 15th in Majors Field Value, but 6th in total salary, which means they’re paying too much for what they’re getting on the field in the majors. 

Overpaid former stars like Giancarlo Stanton, D.J. LeMahieu, Carlos Rodon and, yes, Gerrit Cole are dragging down their cost efficiency. Their farm is 18th in surplus value, so it’s not like they’re going to be drawing too much from it anytime soon. Still, their fans expect constant winning, so of course they’re going to pay the price for that.

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From a fan perspective, you may or may not care about cost efficiency. If you follow the Yankees, you probably don’t. It’s not your money they’re spending lavishly. If you’re a fan of the Rays, however, it comes with the territory, because you know that’s how they produce consistent winners. 

For most teams in between, meanwhile, it matters. Not just because the owner probably likes it, but because the more surplus value teams have in their organizations, the more ammunition they have to work with.

 

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