Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series.

Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:

 

Prominent trade candidates:

Luis Severino

• Field value: 41.5
• Salary owed: 49.5
• Surplus: -8.0 (⬇️)

Severino’s tenure with the Athletics has not gone according to plan. The team seemingly overpaid for the right-hander in free agency, paying above market rate to secure a respected veteran arm to lead the rotation through the next few seasons in Sacramento. But Severino has been unable to get comfortable in the minor league facilities, and has voiced his displeasure, leading to reports that the A’s may now be looking to trade him. Given his track record, he’ll have suitors, but the $49.5M he’s owed through 2027 won’t be easy to move (and his dud of an outing in New York, following our latest value update, doesn’t help matters).

 

Jarren Duran

• Field value: 81.6
• Salary owed: 39.9
• Surplus: 41.7 (⬇️)

The buzz around a Duran trade has quieted a bit, as has his offensive production. He’s running just a 93 wRC+ at the time of writing, and his corner outfield defense isn’t enough to compensate. As his overall middling performance continues, his value continues to drop, and his stellar 2024 season is starting to look like more of an outlier. He’s still a well-regarded player and there’s reason to hope for a return to form, but at this point a Duran trade may be selling lower than the Red Sox would like.

 

Luis Robert Jr.

• Field value: 6.6
• Salary owed: 9.5
• Surplus: -2.9 (⬇️)

Every time you think Luis Robert Jr. has hit his lowest point, he finds a new way to sink even further, most recently shown by his placement on the 10-day IL due to a hamstring strain. He likely won’t have much time between his return and the deadline to win over any potential suitors, so he’ll reach the deadline right around replacement-level production for the season. It’s hard to see anyone taking much more than a flyer here as a bench or platoon outfielder, and it’s almost impossible to imagine his $20M club option for 2026 is exercised.

 

Sandy Alcantara

• Field value: 67.4
• Salary owed: 46.5
• Surplus: 20.9 (⬆️)

Alcantara looked to finally be turning a corner, stringing together four solid starts in a row. But then he let an inning get away from him in Arizona and left the start having allowed seven earned runs over six innings. This start occurred after our latest update, so in reality his value is likely a bit lower than what our site currently shows. He remains a volatile player, and he’s running out of time to show he's figured it out and can be an effective front-line starter down the stretch. Maybe he can turn it on and a team will get desperate enough to send Miami a haul, but if not, it may be best for the Marlins to hold onto Alcantara for now and see if he can rebuild value in the second half.

 

Eugenio Suárez

• Field value: 13.9
• Salary owed: 7.5
• Surplus: 6.4 (⬆️)

The Diamondbacks remain on the periphery of the playoff race, and while they reportedly don’t plan to sell, FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds give them only a 20.7% chance of making the postseason. If the next few weeks aren’t kind to the Diamondbacks, Suárez could become one of the best rental hitters available. At age 33, he’s still doing what he always does - hitting home runs and playing a capable third base - but he’s doing it better than ever, running a 140 wRC+ that would be a career high. One complicating factor: Jordan Lawlar, the presumed replacement for Suárez at the hot corner in Arizona, will miss significant time after suffering a hamstring strain in Triple-A.

 

Other notables:

Alex Bregman

• Field value: 16.9
• Salary owed: 13.4
• Surplus: 3.5

Bregman ranked atop ESPN’s list of trade deadline candidates, albeit with only a 10% chance of being dealt. That makes sense - Bregman has been fantastic for the Red Sox, and his opt-outs after each year of his deal make him a risky player to trade for. If he continues at this level, we’d expect him to opt out, essentially becoming a rental; but if he struggles or gets hurt, then his new team would be responsible for the remainder of his contract. Plus, after the Rafael Devers trade, the Red Sox may look to instead extend Bregman longer-term. Overall, a trade seems unlikely, and Boston would need to eat some of Bregman’s contract to get anything substantial in return.

 

Cedric Mullins

• Field value: 10.5
• Salary owed: 4.4
• Surplus: 6.1

Mullins has cooled off since his hot start, but remains a solid trade candidate for an Orioles team that is clearly out of contention this year. He’s a rental with a league-average bat and a decent glove in center field. That’s nothing to write home about, but he’s a much safer bet than Robert Jr. at this point.

 

Adolis García

• Field value: 5.2
• Salary owed: 4.6
• Surplus: 0.5

The Rangers aren’t quite out of it yet, but they’ve hovered around .500 this year, and may need to consider making some changes. One of those may be moving on from García, who is following up his sub-replacement 2024 with a similarly disappointing 2025. His defense hasn’t been quite as bad, but his bat has gotten worse; he just isn’t hitting for enough power to compensate for his lack of on-base ability. He’s looking like a non-tender candidate as he enters his final year of arbitration, but perhaps there’s a team willing to take a chance on him as a change-of-scenery candidate.

 

Patrick Corbin

• Field value: 2.8
• Salary owed: 0.6
• Surplus: 2.3

Yes, that Patrick Corbin! He’s been perfectly fine for the Rangers after signing a big-league deal late in spring training. He’s nothing special, but most contenders could use an innings-eater, so don’t be surprised if the Rangers are able to flip him for a lottery ticket prospect.

 

Pirates’ booty?

The Pirates are reportedly open for business, with all but Paul Skenes and Andrew McCutchen available in trade. Mitch Keller ($32.2M surplus) would be the prize, as an established mid-rotation arm locked into an affordable contract through 2028. Veterans like Andrew Heaney ($2.1M), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (-$0.5M), Adam Frazier (-$0.5M) and Tommy Pham (-$2.0M) could also be on the move. Also of note are relievers Dennis Santana ($6.5M), David Bednar ($5.4M) and Caleb Ferguson ($2.1M).

But Pittsburgh will likely have a much harder time moving two bigger names, Ke’Bryan Hayes (-$11.5M) and Bryan Reynolds (-$33.5M). They’re locked into guaranteed contracts through 2029 and 2030 respectively, and both are playing well below expectations. Hayes’ glove speaks for itself, but his bat has been nonexistent; few teams can afford to regularly run out a player with a 68 wRC+. After a huge 2021, Reynolds settled in as closer to a two-win player, and this year he’s actually been below replacement level. In either case, the Pirates would need to kick in cash to get a deal done, and that isn’t something they’ve historically been excited to do.

 

What’s going on in the Centrals?

The Pirates aren’t the only potential seller in the NL Central. The Reds’ odds are falling fast, with Brady Singer ($9.7M) appearing to be their most attractive trade candidate, though Nick Martinez (-$2.7M) is a possibility as well. Then there are the Cardinals, who are hovering around 50% playoff odds in what was expected to be a retooling year. Nolan Arenado (-$25.4M) has continued to decline and his full no-trade clause makes a deal unlikely, especially if St. Louis seems competitive. Ryan Helsley ($3.3M) was expected to be the top closer available at the deadline, but his middling performance and the team’s contention make that less likely. Nolan Gorman ($14.0M) is a possible change-of-scenery candidate. The Brewers are fighting the Cubs for the division title, but that isn’t stopping buzz of a potential Freddy Peralta ($31.5M) trade. Milwaukee has ample rotation depth, and has been known to deal from the big league roster in the past, but Jose Quintana (-$1.1M) looks like a more likely candidate to be moved.

The AL Central is just as messy. The Tigers are running away with it and the White Sox are at the bottom as expected, but in between, the Guardians, Twins and Royals have exhibited varying levels of mediocrity. They each make for compelling bubble teams as a result. Cleveland could command the relief market by making an arm like Cade Smith ($32.5M) or Emmanuel Clase ($22.1M) available. The Twins could receive similar hauls for relievers Griffin Jax ($26.3M) or Jhoan Duran ($19.3M), or could even float a rotation arm like Bailey Ober ($27.2M). But the Royals may take the cake, as breakout lefty Kris Bubic ($39.3M) would easily become the most valuable starting pitcher available at the deadline. Keep a close eye on these three teams over the coming weeks.