Can The Orioles Make The Best Of A Sinking Ship?

The 2025 season has gotten off to practically the worst start imaginable for the Baltimore Orioles, as the team, as of this writing, sits at 16-32, 13.5 games out of first place in their division and 10.0 games out of a wildcard spot. We’re only about a third of the way through the season, but Baseball Reference gives the O’s odds of less than one percent to reach the playoffs, while Fangraphs has them at 2.1%.

The Orioles’ predicament this year is somewhat reminiscent of the Yankees back in 2016, when a franchise in the midst of a clear window of contention faltered in the season’s first few months. Instead of pushing his chips into the center of the table and recklessly hoping for a playoff run, Yankees General Manager Brain Cashman opted to sell off players on expiring deals, reeling in pieces for 2017 and beyond. Trading Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs netted Gleyber Torres, while flipping Andrew Miller to the Indians reeled in top prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield, among other deals. With improved health and better luck, the reloaded Yankees came storming back in 2017, coming just one win short of an American League pennant.

The Orioles could in theory dig their way out of a massive hole, but as each loss mounts, General Manager Mike Elias will need to consider a quick reload at the trade deadline. The O’s have plenty of players on expiring contracts who could fetch varying amounts of interest from contending teams. With a multitude of promising young hitting prospects, the focus for Elias will likely be on bringing in young pitching talent to supplement a staff that has been among the worst in baseball this year. With that in mind, let’s break down some trades that could help the Orioles restock for next season and beyond.

 

Phillies get: Value Orioles get: Value
Cedric Mullins 14.7 Mick Abel 10.2
    Michael Mercado 1.6
    Mavis Graves 1.3
    John McMillon 1.1
Total 14.7 Total 14.2

 

The Phillies need a center fielder as badly as any team in baseball right now, seeing as they’re currently running a platoon of glove-only Johan Rojas and hot-and-cold Brandon Marsh. Cedric Mullins, who is in his last year of team control, would fit in perfectly as an excellent defender with a capable bat. Through 190 plate appearances on the year, the former All-Star has slashed .236/.332/.473 with 19 extra base hits for a fantastic 131 OPS+.

As arguably the top center field option on the trade market, Mullins won’t come cheap, so the Phillies would have to pony up a package centered around resurgent 2020 first-round pick Mick Abel. Abel, a 23-year-old starter, struggled in Triple-A in 2024, but seems to have returned to form with a sub-3.00 ERA this season and had a fantastic big league debut in which he outdueled Paul Skenes. To round out the haul, the Phillies could chip in a trio of hard-throwing project arms in Michael Mercado, Mavis Graves and John McMillon. This is the kind of trade that could end up being a steal for Baltimore if Abel turns into the front of the rotation arm he was once destined to be.

 

Dodgers get: Value Orioles get: Value
Tomoyuki Sugano 1.7 Eriq Swan 3.3
Cash 5.0 Christian Zazueta 1.6
    Justin Jarvis 1.6
Total 6.7 Total 6.5

 

The Orioles’ starting rotation has been a complete dumpster fire to start this season, but one bright spot has been Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano. Signed to a one-year, $13 million pact, the crafty veteran has an excellent 3.07 ERA across 58.2 innings thus far, but a fortunate .225 BABIP and a middling 13.8% strikeout rate suggest some regression could be in order. Still, by retaining just $5 million of salary the O’s could land a trio of tantalizing hurlers in Eriq Swan, Christian Zazueta and Justin Jarvis from a pitching-needy team like the Dodgers, who would add Sugano to a roster already brimming with Japanese stars.

 

Red Sox get: Value Orioles get: Value
Ryan O’Hearn 7.1 Jedixson Paez 6.5
    Noah Dean 0.6
Total 7.1 Total 7.1

 

The Red Sox’ first base saga has been well documented in recent weeks, as a season-ending injury to Tristan Casas led to discontent between the front office and positionless star slugger Rafael Devers, while the team is left with uninspiring options like Romy Gonzalez, Abraham Toro and Nick Sogard to fill the breach. 

Fortunately for the Sox, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn has been one of the Orioles’ few productive hitters in 2025, as the 31-year-old has slashed .306/.396/.507 over 154 trips to the plate in his final season of a two-year, $11.5 million contract. O’Hearn’s production coupled with Boston’s dire need for a first baseman could land the Orioles a high-upside youngster like funky 21-year-old right-hander Jedixson Paez.

 

Phillies get: Value Orioles get: Value
Andrew Kittredge -4.9 Alex McFarlane 2.5
Cash 7.2    
Total 2.3 Total 2.5

 

Heading into this season, the Orioles signed former All-Star reliever Andrew Kittredge to a one-year deal worth $10 million to bolster a relief corps that struggled mightily in 2024. So far, they’ve gotten next to nothing out of Kittredge as the 35-year-old has spent almost the entirety of the season on the shelf with a left knee injury. However, he made his triumphant return this week, firing a scoreless inning against the Brewers. If he can remain healthy and productive, Kittredge and his $9 million team option for 2026 should hold some appeal to contending teams in need of bullpen help.

The O’s could go back to the well in Philadelphia, as the Phillies find themselves in dire bullpen straits in the wake of Jose Alvarado’s suspension. If Baltimore retains the $4.9 million still owed to Kittredge in 2025, they could net themselves fireballing starting pitching prospect Alex McFarlane.

 

Yankees get: Value Orioles get: Value
Zach Eflin 2.2 Thatcher Hurd 2.3
       
Total 2.2 Total 2.3

 

Acquired from the Rays at last year’s deadline, Zach Eflin is a luxury the Orioles have no need for in a cursed 2025 campaign, as the right-hander is set to reach free agency at season’s end. Eflin hasn’t looked great after returning from injury in 2025, working to a rough 5.08 ERA in 28.1 innings. However, the 31-year-old had posted a rock solid 3.54 ERA in 343.0 frames over the two prior seasons, and will likely revert back closer to the mean as the season progresses.

Trading for Eflin would be a good risk to take for the division-leading Yankees, who have leaned on the likes of Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and Ryan Yarbrough to make starts in recent weeks with ace Gerrit Cole out for the season. In exchange for a half season of Eflin, the Orioles could land an intriguing, but injured arm in last year’s third-round pick Thatcher Hurd.

 

Mets get: Value Orioles get: Value
Gregory Soto 0.7 Dominic Hamel 1.6
Cash 1    
Total 1.7 Total 1.6

 

Two-time All-Star Gregory Soto has always issued too many free passes to be a true shutdown closer, but the southpaw still punches out plenty of batters, and carves up same-handed batters to the tune of a .148 batting average against this season. With free agency looming, Soto serves no purpose on a sinking ship in Baltimore, but would be a godsend for a Mets team that lost both A.J. Minter and Danny Young, their top two lefty relievers, to season-ending surgeries. A deal for Soto could get the Mets to cough up a high-upside project like 26-year-old Triple-A starter Dominic Hamel.

 

Mariners get: Value Orioles get: Value
Ramon Laureano 3.3 Ashton Izzi 2.3
    Hagen Danner 0.9
Total 3.3 Total 3.2

 

Outfielder Ramón Laureano has seen his star fade in recent years after a terrific first few seasons with the Athletics. He’s bounced around the league, settling into a role as a fourth outfielder with a decent bat. He’s been as advertised in 36 games with the Orioles so far, working to an .852 OPS while suiting up at all three outfield positions.

Mariners outfielders have taken a beating this year, as both Luke Raley and Victor Robles are on the shelf, leading to a hodge-podge of Miles Mastrobuoni, Leody Taveras and Dylan Moore filling in on the grass. Laureano isn’t a star, but he’d give Seattle a cromulent bat to handle everyday duties until their regulars return. The acquisition cost shouldn’t be much higher than lottery ticket starter Ashton Izzi and high minors depth reliever Hagen Danner.

 

Rangers get: Value Orioles get: Value
Seranthony Domínguez -4.9 Brock Porter 0.8
Cash 5.5    
Total 0.6 Total 0.8

 

Seranthony Domínguez has seen his stock dip significantly since his time as a borderline elite closer with the Phillies, and is now just another arm in a shaky Baltimore bullpen. However, a team in need of relief help could take a chance on a return to form for the impending free agent. Enter the Texas Rangers, who currently only have one reliable right-handed option in the ageless Chris Martin. If Baltimore is willing to eat the remaining $5.5 million owed to Domínguez, they could reel in a youngster with a decent amount of upside like relief prospect Brock Porter.

 

None of the trades by themselves are likely to radically alter the trajectory of the Orioles as a franchise, although the acquisition of Mick Abel could pay huge dividends if his breakout is legit. The goal of Mike Elias should not be to tear things down to the studs, but simply to cash in whatever assets he has that don’t fit into the team’s window of contention. Hopefully, Baltimore’s exciting young position player core of Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman and others will get back to mashing in 2026, and some newly-infused pitching talent will help the team reverse its fortunes on the other side of the ball. By learning from the 2016 Yankees, the Orioles may come to see their terrible start to the season as a blessing in disguise in years to come if they can successfully stock up on young arms that help future playoff runs.

 

About the Author

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Ms. Dajuba

I think it’s time for Baltimore to consider moving rentals & short timers in trades and start a mini rebuild focused on ‘28 because I don’t believe they will be contending in ‘25 or ‘26 and ‘27 is looking like a lock out. This wave of young talent just hasn’t produced the way they’ve hoped for (Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, Jackson Holliday…) but they’re still young and have time to improve, so it’s time to get something in return for; Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin, Ramon Urias & Keegan Akin. And maybe even a few others; Gregory Soto, Trevor Rogers, Ryan Mountcastle. RP Felix Bautista with 2+ years of control would bring back a nice prospect package if the Orioles chose to go that route.

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