Welcome to the 2025 Trade Deadline Roundup. All trades will be added to this article as they are reported.

 

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July 31

Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Shelby Miller ($0.4M), LHP Jordan Montgomery (-$7.5M) and cash (reportedly $5.5M) from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for a PTBNL or cash

Miller was an excellent story, returning to a Diamondbacks team for whom he'd disappointed mightily as a starter from 2016-18, only to turn into a dominant reliever and provide one of the only sources of stability in Arizona's disaster of a bullpen. Unfortunately, he was hit with the contagious injury bug circulating around the Diamondbacks' roster, as he hasn't pitched since July 5 due to a forearm strain. If he can return in the next few weeks, he should be a solid bullpen weapon for the Brewers down the stretch.

Had Miller stayed healthy, Arizona might have been able to get a decent prospect for him. Instead, it settles for salary relief. Montgomery is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John Surgery and will be a free agent after the season. He's included solely to dump $2M of his salary onto Milwaukee as their cost to acquire Miller.

Detroit Tigers acquire RHP Charlie Morton (-$3.2M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for LHP Micah Ashman (not in system)

After a dreadful start to the year that saw Morton get bumped to the bullpen (and almost off the roster entirely), he has righted the ship to the point that the Orioles could move his remaining $5.0M salary without having to eat any of it. Ashman is a tall lefty reliever who dominated High-A and just earned a promotion to Double-A.

Morton will probably be fine for the Tigers; since May 1, he has a reasonably 3.98 ERA and 4.24 FIP. But this trade caps off an underwhelming deadline overall for Detroit. They sit comfortably atop the AL Central with plenty of prospects to trade, but apparently were not motivated enough to make any substantial upgrades to the roster.

San Diego Padres acquire LHP Nestor Cortes ($2.3M) and SS Jorge Quintana ($3.4M) from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for OF Brandon Lockridge ($0.4M)

If you were wondering how AJ Preller might restock his depleted farm, moves like this are how it starts. Not only is Cortes a rotation upgrade who will be ready to return from his shoulder injury very soon, but Quintana is a projectable 18-year-old shortstop prospect who received the top bonus in Milwaukee's 2024 international class (one which also included current top prospects Jesus Made and Luis Peña). I'm not sure how Preller got the Brewers to agree to this deal - especially in exchange for a back-up outfielder who looks a lot more like a Quad-A player than a future starter. Moves like this one are part of what make Preller so special. No one should be surprised if Quintana's value doubles or triples over the next year and he becomes the Padres' next trade chip.

This deal was accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by San Diego.

Kansas City Royals acquire OF Mike Yastrzemski ($0.4M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for RHP Yunior Marte ($1.2M)

Right after the buzzer, it was reported that Kansas City had a deal for Yastrzemski. The 34-year-old once made headlines and was heralded as one of Farhan Zaidi's best moves, but once everyone got tired of the references to Mike's Hall of Fame grandfather, what was left was a platoon corner outfielder. He's a fine player, but nothing particularly special, and he'll be a free agent at the end of the year.

This is a different Yunior Marte from the one who threw 48 innings out of San Francisco's bullpen in 2022. This one is about to turn 22 and hasn't made his big league debut yet (he's still down in Single-A). He's seen as a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but one with plenty of risk, and he's likely at least a couple years away from the majors.

Houston Astros acquire SS Carlos Correa (-$35.1M) and cash ($33M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for LHP Matt Mikulski (not in system)

In perhaps the biggest shocker of the deadline, Houston is reunited with its former superstar in Correa. The 30-year-old is in the midst of arguably the worst season of his career, but perhaps a homecoming (and a change of scenery defensively, as Correa will be shifting to third base) will provide the spark his bat needs.

Correa's stint in Minnesota was an inconsistent one, alternating excellent seasons in 2022 and 2024 with disappointing ones in 2023 and 2025. According to reports, the Twins front office was honest with Correa about its plans to sell at the deadline, and both parties agreed to attempt to work out a deal with Houston if there was a fair one to be made.

Our model projected Correa to be about $35M underwater, and with Minnesota kicking in $33M (and receiving a non-prospect in return), this deal certainly looks fair from our perspective. Correa's contract is interestingly front-loaded and may prove to be a value for Houston in the coming years; for more, check out John Bitzer's breakdown of the deal in his deadline analysis piece.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire RHP Matt Manning ($0.1M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for OF Josueth Quinonez (not in system)

Detroit cut Manning, a former top prospect, to make room for its other pitching additions. He hasn't pitched in the big leagues this year (and has gotten smacked around in Triple-A) so this is just Philadelphia taking a flier on a rebound. Quinonez is an undersized center fielder who's been an excellent contact hitter in a small DSL sample.

Boston Red Sox acquire RHP Dustin May ($2.3M) from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for OFs James Tibbs ($9.1M) and Zach Ehrhard ($2.5M)

Craig Breslow was reportedly aggressive throughout the deadline, pushing especially hard for Joe Ryan of the Twins, but couldn't get a major deal across the finish line. This trade feels like a desperation move, a pivot to whatever arm he could get to make sure he didn't leave the frenzy empty-handed.

May is fine, but injuries have prevented him from ever delivering on his prospect hype; his 18 starts and 104 innings pitched this season are his MLB career-highs, by far. He no longer sits in the upper 90s and he's pitched more like a fourth or fifth starter this season. He'll be a free agent at the end of the year.

The Red Sox acquired Tibbs in the Rafael Devers trade just over a month ago, and now he's on the move again. The 2024 first-round pick didn't hit all that well in Double-A for Boston, but he still looks like he'll develop into a solid corner outfielder with some power and speed. That being said, it's at least a bit of a yellow flag that two organizations have decided to move on from Tibbs in such a short span of time.

Ehrhard was also taken in last year's draft, but in the fourth round. He's a smaller hitter who doesn't necessarily have a standout tool and likely won't be able to play center field in the big leagues, making him a bench player at best.

This deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Boston.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire RHP Adrian Houser ($4.5M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for 1B Curtis Mead ($3.3M) and RHPs Ben Peoples ($1.6M) and Duncan Davitt (not in system)

Seemingly out of nowhere, Houser became one of the more popular starting pitching options on the market. He didn't sign with the White Sox until late May, but dominated from day one. His 2.10 ERA certainly isn't sustainable, but he should adequately fill the rotation vacancy left by Zack Littell.

Mead was once one of the most exciting propsects in Tampa Bay's system. But he's failed to launch in the big leagues, and he's already in his final option year. Chicago should be able to give him enough playing time to figure out who he is down the stretch. Peoples is a Triple-A reliever having a fine year; he'll be Rule 5 eligible this offseason. Davitt was the Rays' 18th-round pick in 2022, and he's been consistently solid throughout the minors, though lackluster stuff leaves him looking more like a swingman than an impact arm.

New York Yankees acquire RHP Camilo Doval ($3.5M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for C Jesus Rodriguez ($1.8M), RHP Trystan Vrieling ($1.4M), LHP Carlos De La Rosa ($0.2M) and IF Parks Harber (not in system)

In their final move of the deadline, the Yankees added one last late-inning arm in Doval. Formerly one of the best closers in the National League, Doval lost his job during a dreadful 2024 season, and this year has been somewhere in between. He may not be the lockdown arm he once was, but he still throws very hard and will be fine as the fourth or fifth best arm in New York's bullpen. He has two years of arbitration remaining.

This return looks significantly lighter than what San Francisco received for Tyler Rogers. Rodriguez is a catcher who might not defend well enough to stick at the position full-time. The contact hitter may find his way onto a future big league roster as a utility man who can play the corner infield and outfield positions and fill in behind the plate as needed. Vrieling is a back-end starter with underwhelming stuff, while De La Rosa is a DSL lefty who may be an okay reliever some day. Harber has pop, but his long swing will be tested as he rises through the minors.

There's nothing too exciting in this return, and Doval could easily make this trade look silly for the Giants. But he's also starting to get expensive in arbitration, and if he can't regain his 2022-23 form, he may become a non-tender candidate before his remaining team control expires.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire RHP Griffin Jax ($25.7M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for RHP Taj Bradley ($30.2M)

Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Louis Varland ($13.4M) and 1B Ty France ($1.3M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for OF Alan Roden ($10.3M) and LHP Kendry Rojas ($5.2M)

After trading closer Jhoan Duran, many expected the Twins to hang onto their other controllable late-inning arms as replacements. Instead, they dealt both Jax and Varland, opting to shift the team's value from the bullpen into the rotation and starting lineup.

Bradley was once a top starting pitching prospect, and while he hasn't been bad in the big leagues, he also hasn't been particularly good. He's still only 24 and has four years of team control remaining after 2025. Minnesota has done well with pitching development as of late, and if it can help Bradley improve, there's a chance at a mid-rotation starter or better here. Bradley also has one option remaining after this season, in case the Twins need to send him down to the minors to continue their work on him.

Roden had a big spring and cracked the Blue Jays' Opening Day roster, but he struggled out of the gate and found himself back down in Triple-A. Throughout the minors, he's walked about as frequently as he's struck out, compensating for lackluster power numbers for a corner outfielder. This is a Steven Kwan-esque profile that has a chance to be productive in the big leagues right away. Rojas sits in the mid-90s and looks like a viable back-end starter, and having just made his Triple-A debut, he could find himself in Minnesota before the end of the year.

It's a smart move for the retooling Twins to convert their value from the bullpen to other parts of the roster. But it's equally smart for the Rays and Jays to invest in these two arms. Jax has some of the best underlying metrics in baseball, and should perform considerably better than his 4.50 ERA down the stretch (and into future seasons). Varland, a converted starter, looks much more comfortable out of the bullpen where he can air it out and throw it past hitters. Jax has two additional years of control remaining, while Varland has four.

These moves may look poor in the next year or two if Minnesota's rebuilt bullpen can't support its rotation and lineup, especially while Jax and Varland succeed elsewhere. But relievers are notoriously volatile; no matter how well the two right-handers project, there's no guarantee they'll maintain their success into the future. The Twins are taking a gamble that they can find quality relievers to replace these two, but in a way, keeping the pair may have been just as high of a risk.

Texas Rangers acquire RHP Phil Maton ($2.0M) from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for RHP Skylar Hales ($1.6M), LHP Mason Molina (not in system) and international bonus pool money ($0.25M)

After deciding to pass the luxury tax threshold, Texas now had the flexibility to add one more late-inning reliever. Enter Maton, a rental having an excellent season for St. Louis. The veteran has always been more of a middle reliever, but perhaps the Rangers can ride this hot streak through October.

Hales is a sinker/slider relief prospect who just reached Triple-A. He'll need to find an out pitch against left-handed hitters to succeed in the upper minors, let alone the big leagues. Molina has had success in the lower minors, but as a college draftee, the real test will come as he continues to climb through the orgainzation. He doesn't throw particularly hard or have a dominant pitch, so the odds are stacked against him.

Cincinnati Reds acquire OF/3B Miguel Andujar ($0.3M) from the Athletics in exchange for RHP Kenya Huggins ($0.7M)

The Reds were very vocal about the importance of defense after acquiring Ke'Bryan Hayes, then turned around and traded for one of the worst defenders in baseball in Andujar. He's a fine bench bat, especially against lefties, but he really doesn't look comfortable at third base or in left field. He'll be a free agent at the end of the year. Huggins is a bit behind developmentally due to a 2023 Tommy John Surgery, but he has a sturdy build and looks like a possible back-end starter.

Chicago Cubs acquire LHP Taylor Rogers (-$0.3M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for OF Ivan Brethowr ($1.1M)

Rogers was originally seen as a salary dump in the Ke'Bryan Hayes trade, but the Pirates did nicely to flip him for a prospect. His ERA has been significantly lower than his peripherals the last two years, but he should be at least a serviceable middle relief arm, especially against lefties. Brethowr is an outfielder who hasn't been able to tap into the power that got him drafted in the seventh round. He's a lottery ticket, but that's better than keeping Rogers on a team going nowhere this season.

Texas Rangers acquire RHP Merrill Kelly ($4.8M) from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for LHPs Kohl Drake ($7.8M) and Mitch Bratt ($2.9M) and RHP Dave Hagaman ($2.8M)

The Rangers were quiet for much of the deadline, trying to find a path forward to upgrade their roster without pushing past the luxury tax threshold. They ultimately abandoned that self-imposed limitation and paid a high prospect price for Kelly, arguably the top rental starter on the market. The 36-year-old has quietly gone about his business as a legitimate mid-rotation arm for the better part of the last four years, and he'll bring stability to a Texas rotation that has struggled to fill its last two spots at times this season.

Arizona has to be thrilled with the return here. Drake is the headliner, a former 11th-round pick who has performed well above those expectations. His fastball has great life and deception and compensates for an arsenal that isn't particularly dominant otherwise. He just reached Triple-A and could debut later this season. Bratt has incredible command, the type that should allow the 22-year-old to succeed as a back-end starter in the majors despite lackluster stuff. Hagaman was drafted in 2024, but didn't make his debut until this season due to undergoing elbow surgery prior to draft day. He has big stuff and command issues - a recipe for reliever risk - but a real chance at sticking in the rotation if he can find the zone more consistently.

This return is essentially two high-probability big league starters and a third lottery ticket (who has a decent shot of being at least a serviceable reliever). That's an excellent return for two months of a good-not-great starting pitcher. Texas, meanwhile, is going for it, and has a deep enough farm that this price didn't hurt too bad.

This deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Texas.

New York Yankees acquire UT Jose Caballero ($6.8M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for OF Everson Pereira ($0.0M) and a PTBNL

Caballero seems to make fans everywhere he goes. The 28-year-old doesn't hit the ball with a lot of authority, but he gets on base and plays hard on both sides of the ball. He plays average to above average defense at almost every position on the diamond and currently leads all of baseball in stolen bases. He even has all three options remaining and four additional years of team control, making him a perfect fit for any contender's bench.

The Rays have plenty of young infielders ready to step into Caballero's spot, but it's still curious that they seemingly sold low here. Pereira looks like a failed prospect, having struggled in his only big league opportunity in 2023 and toiled away in Triple-A for the Yankees since. He's hit well at that level, but still strikes out too much, and it's telling that New York never gave him another chance. Perhaps the Rays see something, or perhaps the PTBNL is a more notable player.

This deal was accepted by our model as a major underpay by New York.

Kansas City Royals acquire LHP Bailey Falter ($3.6M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for LHP Evan Sisk ($0.6M) and 1B Callan Moss (not in system)

Recent injuries to Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have depleted Kansas City's rotation, so even after adding a pair of big league arms in the Freddy Fermin trade, it was looking for more reliable depth. Enter Falter, a cromulent back-end starter who compensates for middling strikeout and walk rates with a funky delivery and above average extension. He's under control for three more seasons, but was reportedly seen as a non-tender candidate by Pittsburgh's front office.

The return for the Pirates is a bit light. Sisk is a fine left-handed reliever, but he doesn't throw hard and will likely always struggle against right-handed hitters. Moss was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2024, and he's hitting well in High-A, but he'll need to develop more power to become a playable big league first baseman.

This deal was accepted by our model as a minor underpay by Kansas City.

Chicago Cubs acquire UT Willi Castro ($3.1M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for RHPs Sam Armstrong ($1.0M) and Ryan Gallagher ($1.0M)

After a bit of an awkward situation at Target Field the day before the deadline, when manager Rocco Baldelli pulled Castro before his last plate appearance to give him a moment to himself (but ultimately, sent everyone into a panic that he had been traded) he was ultimately dealt to the Cubs on deadline day. The switch-hitting super utility man is a clean fit for any contender; he can play any position and has been about 10% better than league average offensively each of the last three seasons. He's a rental owed about $2.1M the rest of the year.

In exchange, the Twins add two decent young arms, not a bad return for a player the team originally acquired via a minor league deal after the Tigers non-tendered Castro in 2022. Gallagher and Armstrong both look like possible depth starters. Both are currently pitching in Double-A, so they may see a big league opportunity as early as 2026.

Los Angeles Angels in exchange for IF Oswald Peraza ($0.0M) from the New York Yankees in exchange for OF Wilberson De Pena (not in system) and international bonus pool money

Peraza is a prime change of scenery candidate. The former top prospect could never get his bat going in New York, and now has a chance to do so in a lower pressure environment. He's out of options. De Pena has big power, but also big swing-and-miss, and will be a project.

San Diego Padres acquire OF Ramón Laureano ($6.6M) and 1B Ryan O'Hearn ($4.1M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for LHP Boston Bateman ($2.3M), RHPs Tyson Neighbors ($2.3M) and Tanner Smith (not in system) and IFs Cobb Hightower ($2.2M), Victor Figueroa ($0.3M) and Brandon Butterworth (not in system)

In this deal, the Orioles raided San Diego's farm system of all of it's wackiest names. This couldn't have possibly been a coincidence, I refuse to believe it.

Bateman is the highlight, San Diego's second-round pick from 2024. He's pitched well in Single-A at just 19 and has a starter's build, albeit with a lower ceiling due to unimpressive stuff overall. Neighbors is a Double-A reliever with a high strikeout rate thanks to a solid fastball/curveball combo. Hightower is a solid defensive shortstop, but the 20-year-old lacks much in the way of power projection. Figueroa has torched the lower minors this year, but is 1B-only and doesn't make much contact. Butterworth is a plus defender and runner who isn't likely to hit enough to be more than a utility man, while Smith has posted solid minor league numbers in relief but has been old for his level and doesn't have great stuff.

After trading Leo De Vries (and others) to the Athletics, San Diego's farm system was essentially gutted; it dropped precipitously from Ethan Salas ($31.1M) to Kash Mayfield ($5.8M), then two prospects in the $3M range, and then a handful in the $2Ms. That meant a quantity trade like this would be the only way for AJ Preller to fill the team's remaining holes, and in this deal, he did so spectacularly.

Laureano has struggled since his 2021 PED suspension, being cut loose by the A's in 2023 and then again by the Guardians in 2024. He did enough down the stretch with Atlanta last year to earn a one-year deal with the Orioles, and he's rewarded the team with the best offensive season of his career. He's hitting for power, getting on base and playing solid defense; with an affordable $6.5M club option for 2026, what's not to like?

O'Hearn is a similar success story for Baltimore. The former top prospect spent four consecutive seasons below replacement level for the Royals before joining the Orioles in 2023 and immediately performing as an above average hitter against right-handed pitching. He's improved his plate discipline significantly, but still hits for power. The 32-year-old will be a free agent at the end of the season.

This deal provides the Padres with two massive upgrades over their poor production at left field and first base. There isn't a ton of upside for the Orioles, but there's a chance this return gives them a big league starter, reliever and utility man. That's not bad at all considering how O'Hearn and Laureano looked when they first joined the team.

This deal was accepted by our model as a minor underpay by San Diego.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire OF Alex Call ($3.4M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for RHPs Sean Paul Liñan ($2.3M) and Eriq Sqan ($1.7M)

Call is a sign of good process for Washington: it claimed the outfielder off waivers from Cleveland in 2022, gave him the opportunity to develop into a quality big league player, and traded him to a contender when it became clear he wouldn't be a part of the next great Nationals team.

The 30-year-old is a perfect fit for the Dodgers. He's a quality defender who hits left-handed pitching well, matching him up nicely with Michael Conforto. He also has two options remaining, a plus for a Dodgers team constantly seeking roster flexibility. Call has an additional four years of team control after 2025.

Liñan has been successful in the lower minors this season thanks to a plus changeup (and in spite of below average fastball velocity). The 20-year-old looks like a back-end starter, but could be more if he could add a couple ticks of velo. Swan throws much harder, touching triple-digits with a wipeout slider. But the 23-year-old also carries a ton of relief risk. Overall, this is a solid return for a former waiver claim.

Texas Rangers acquire LHP Danny Coulombe ($0.9M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for LHP Garrett Horn ($1.0M)

Coulombe has quietly been one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball this season, posting a 1.16 ERA over 31 innings. He's a 35-year-old rental who averages 90 mph on his fastball and has never seen anywhere near this level of success, so it's understandable that teams aren't quite buying into it.

Horn was the Rangers' sixth-round pick in 2024. He's been dominant in the lower levels of the minors, but that's somewhat expected; he's a college draftee whose pro debut was delayed by a pre-draft Tommy John Surgery. There's a lot to like about his profile and he could shoot up prospect list if he can continue this success into the upper minors (though that's a big "if").

San Diego Padres acquire UT Will Wagner ($5.7M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for C Brandon Valenzuela ($1.2M)

Wagner is interesting. The son of Hall of Famer Billy Wagner was sent to Toronto in last year's Yusei Kikuchi deal and had a successful big league debut, posting a 124 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances. The 2025 season wasn't as kind to him (85 wRC+) and he found himself back in Triple-A. The 27-year-old has been something of a late bloomer, and he's always torched upper minors pitching. He may find playing time in San Diego if Jose Iglesias continues to struggle.

Valenzuela is a solid defensive catcher with some pop, but his hit tool leaves a lot to be desired. He looks like a possible back-up catcher, but that's all Toronto will need him to be, considering Alejandro Kirk's recent extension.

Toronto had a glut of infielders on their 40-man roster, helping explain their decision to seemingly sell low on Wagner.

This deal was accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by San Diego.

Houston Astros acquire OF Jesús Sánchez ($12.6M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for RHP Ryan Gusto ($6.3M), SS Chase Jaworsky ($1.4M) and OF Esmil Valencia ($0.9M)

After trading superstar Kyle Tucker last offseason, the Astros have struggled to replace his left-handed power in the lineup. A plethora of injuries haven't helped, and now they add Sánchez in an attempt to fill the gap. The 27-year-old has settled into his role as a platoon corner outfielder with pop. That's all the Astros need him to be, and they'll have him for two additional years of arbitration (though he's out of options, and as a Super Two player, that final year may be a bit pricey).

Gusto is the headliner for Miami, a 26-year-old who worked himself into Houston's rotation and had some success. He's a bit of a kitchen sink guy whose strikeout and walk rates suggest a far better pitcher than his ERA would. He's been susceptible to the long ball, and a switch in home park from hitter-friendly Houston to pitcher-friendly Miami should help. He's a very solid addition for the Marlins.

Jaworsky looks like a utility man, a plus defender with speed and not a lot of pop. He'll need to make more consistent contact to reach the big leagues. Valencia is more of a lottery ticket. The 19-year-old has been running wild in Single-A this year, but he'll need to improve his swing decisions and tap into more power to become an impact player.

Given Sánchez's own defensive and platoon limitations, his market may have been limited. Miami is likely glad to add Gusto in return, as well as open up a spot for top prospect Jakob Marsee, part of last year's Luis Arraez return who has been hitting well in Triple-A.

The deal is accepted by our model as a major underpay by Houston.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Brock Stewart ($6.0M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for OF James Outman ($1.3M)

It looks like the Dodgers got a discount here in their reunion with Stewart, a failed starting pitching prospect who's found success throwing in the upper 90s out of the bullpen for Minnesota. He has an additional two years of team control remaining, but he's 33 and out of options; if he struggles again like he did in 2024, then he may find himself off the roster.

Outman has fallen far, from a 3.9 fWAR rookie season to back-to-back years below replacement level. The 28-year-old is in his final option year and has more than shown he's too good for Triple-A. The Twins will give him plenty of runway to prove himself down the stretch. If all goes well, they have him under team control for four more seasons.

This deal was accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by Los Angeles.

New York Yankees acquire RHP Jake Bird ($6.5M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for 2B Roc Riggio ($1.7M) and LHP Ben Shields ($0.4M)

Credit the Rockies for finally selling, and for (at least in our opinion) doing quite well in the Ryan McMahon deal. But this one doesn't look as good for Colorado. Riggio hits the ball hard, but he's defensively limited to second base only, and has a bit more swing-and-miss than you'd like to see from a hitter at his age (23) and level (High-A/Double-A). He's a fine player having a good year, but most evaluators see him as a bench bat at best. Shields is an older prospect, a 26-year-old lefty in Double-A who has a chance at remaining a starter, but is more likely to end up in the bullpen.

Those are two fine role players for the Rockies to add, but one would expect a larger return for Bird, a breakout reliever with three and a half years of cheap team control remaining. His 4.73 ERA isn't pretty, but he's been pitching in Coors, and his peripherals are considerably better. He's struck out well over a batter per inning this year and looks like he could be one tweak away from becoming a dominant leverage arm.

This deal was accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by New York.

New York Mets acquire OF Cedric Mullins ($3.3M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHPs Anthony Nunez ($2.8M), Raimon Gomez ($1.6M) and Chandler Marsh (not in system)

Jose Siri was expected to play a major role in New York's outfield this season, but he's barely played after suffering a fractured tibia in April. This left center field thin for the Mets and made Mullins an obvious target. The 30-year-old isn't the same defender he was in his prime, and is in his third consecutive season of hitting right around the league average, but the Mets don't need him to be a star for him to improve their team. He'll be a free agent after the season.

Nunez is a fun story - he was drafted as a high school shortstop in 2019, then released in 2021, and transitioned to the mound for Division II University of Tampa. The Mets signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2024 and his plus slider has carried him all the way to Double-A in the last 12 months. He doesn't throw hard, but he looks like a surefire big league reliever. Gomez, on the other hand, is the hardest-throwing pitcher in the minor leagues, touching 105 with his fastball. Unfortunately, he has no idea where it's going. If Baltimore can reign him in, even just a little bit, they may have a monster on their hands. Marsh doesn't have much prospect recognition, but he's pitched well in relief in High-A this season.

The Orioles certainly didn't enter this season expecting to trade Mullins at the deadline for a trio of minor league relievers. But he's no longer the impact player he once was, and both Nunez and Gomez could theoretically help the team as early as 2026.

New York Yankees acquire RHP David Bednar ($7.4M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Cs Rafael Flores ($7.3M), Edgleen Perez ($4.3M) and OF Brian Sanchez ($1.1M)

From 2021-23, Bednar was one of the top relievers in baseball. His success and multiple years of team control made him a valuable trade piece, and many questioned the Pirates' decision to hang onto the talented closer given their struggles as a team and likely distance from contention.

In 2024, those questions were justified, as Bednar posted an ERA near six and looked completely lost. The 2025 season started the same way, and the 30-year-old was even optioned to Triple-A for a reset. Upon his return, he regained his dominance and allowed only seven earned runs over his next 37 innings. That was enough to make him one of the most attractive relievers on the market, and with only one more year remaining until free agency, the Pirates finally pulled the trigger, sending him to New York.

Flores, 24, headlined their return, a power-hitting backstop who had just made his Triple-A debut. He's not the strongest defender, but looks like he will really hit; he feels a bit like an older, slightly less talented Agustín Ramírez. Perez is a better defender and contact hitter, but has yet to tap into his power, and at 19, may take some time to do so. He'll be more of a project for a Pirates organization that has struggled to develop hitters. Sanchez doesn't have much prospect hype, but he's hit well in the lower levels of the minors, and may be worth keeping an eye on.

If not for Bednar's dreadful 2024, this return would look completely reasonable (or maybe even a bit light) for a year and a half of the talented reliever. But that poor season can't be totally dismissed, especially since it bled into the start of 2025. In this case, the Yankees are certainly trading from a position of strength; they've done a good job of developing catchers in recent years, and they're currently set at the big league level between Austin Wells, Ben Rice and J.C. Escarra. Still, this return is just a bit more expensive than our model likes.

This deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by the Yankees.

San Diego Padres acquire C Freddy Fermin ($5.4M) from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for RHPs Stephen Kolek ($4.7M) and Ryan Bergert ($3.3M)

Kolek and Bergert are two development wins for San Diego. The Padres selected Kolek from the Mariners in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft and used him as a low-leverage reliever. A thin rotation forced the Padres to stretch him out in 2025, and he's responded by performing as a capable back-end starter. Bergert was the Padres' sixth-round pick in 2021. Since then, he's slowly worked his way through the minors, and San Diego has made adjustments to his delivery, arm slot and pitch mix throughout the way to turn him into a legitimate back-end starter with potential for more. He was pitching well out of the Padres' rotation at the time of the trade.

In exchange, the Padres upgrade one of the weakest positions in baseball, as they've received below replacement level production behind the plate. Fermin, even with numbers that would have him as most teams' back-up, represents a considerable upgrade. He's a contact hitter with an above average glove and four years of team control remaining. For the Padres, he turns the catching position from a black hole into one they don't need to worry about for a couple years; for the Royals, a back-up catcher blocked by Sal Perez (and actively blocking the paths of top prospects Carter Jensen and Blake Mitchell) turns into two big league pitchers who can slot directly into the rotation. A win-win.

This deal was accepted by our model as a minor overpay by San Diego. 

Detroit Tigers acquire RHP Codi Heuer ($0.0M) from the Texas Rangers in exchange for cash considerations

At one point, Heuer looked like a potential back-end arm, and the Cubs certainly thought so when they acquired him in the infamous 2021 Craig Kimbrel trade. But he battled injury and underperformance and didn't pitch again in the big leagues after that season - at least, not until the Rangers gave him an inning and a third this year. He's nothing more than depth for Detroit.

Detroit Tigers acquire RHP Kyle Finnegan ($0.6M) and cash ($2.0M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for RHPs Josh Randall ($2.1M) and R.J. Sales (not in system)

Finnegan has been Washington's primary closer for the last three years, but that's not out of an abundance of skill; he was a replacement level player by fWAR last year, and only slightly above that in 2023. This year, his velo has dropped a bit and he's missing fewer bats, but in exchange he's keeping the ball in the yard at the best rate of his career. It remains to be seen whether that's sustainable - he's running a 7.3% HR/FB rate - but at the very least, Finnegan is a capable middle reliever who raises Detroit's floor.

Randall was the Tigers' third-round pick in 2024. He pitched well enough in Single-A this season to earn a promotion to High-A just before the trade. The 22-year-old looks like a possible back-end starter. Sales was last year's 10th-round pick, and he's been pitching even better than Randall in Single-A this season, but he doesn't have much prospect attention. Perhaps the Nationals scouted the stat line and found a diamond in the rough here.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire OF Harrison Bader ($3.1M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for OF Hendry Mendez ($3.1M) and RHP Geremy Villoria (not in system)

The Phillies were connected to most of the outfielders on the market and opted for Bader, a rental in the midst of his best offensive season. The 31-year-old isn't the otherworldly defender he once was, but he still grades very well, and the same can't be said for Philadelphia's other outfield options. Even if his bat regresses, Bader's defense and his ability to hit left-handed pitching make him a great fit for a team with Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler.

The Phillies originally acquired Mendez from the Brewers in the 2023 Oliver Dunn trade. Mendez is a contact-hitting outfielder who has had difficulty tapping into his plus raw power in games. He's improved in that regard in Double-A in 2025, but as a poor defensive left fielder, he'll need to develop more pop to make a big league impact. Villoria, still just 16, is a project - there are reasons to dream on him, but it might be another decade before he's an established big leaguer, and that's if everything goes well.

San Diego Padres acquire RHP Mason Miller ($30.4M) and LHP JP Sears ($12.4M) from the Athletics in exchange for SS Leo De Vries ($50.5M) and RHPs Braden Nett ($2.8M), Eduarniel Núñez ($2.0M) and Henry Baez ($1.4M)

Preller does it again! We really shouldn't even be surprised at this point.

For months, reports indicated that Preller was enamored with Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. It looked like the only way he'd be able to get a deal done with his depleted farm system would be to trade one of his two top prospects, De Vries or catcher Ethan Salas, both of whom had previously been deemed untouchable.

As the Red Sox remained in the playoff race and saw injuries start to impact their once-deep outfield picture, a Duran trade began to appear less and less likely. In the days leading up to the deadline, the Padres were connected to every top controllable player who could potentially be available - and in each case, it became obvious that De Vries or Salas would need to be on the table to make a deal happen.

Ultimately, he got the Athletics to bite for top closer Mason Miller. The 26-year-old burst onto the scene in 2024 and established himself as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, and though he's looked a bit more human at times in 2025, he still throws just as hard and has strong underlying metrics. He comes with an additional four years of team control, and there's a possibility San Diego could try to stretch him out into a starting role, as it's successfully done in the past with the likes of Seth Lugo, Michael King, Stephen Kolek and others. It would certainly be a risky move, as Miller has dealt with many injuries throughout his career and has become something of a two-pitch reliever, but the possibility is there and it gives Miller immense upside.

In practically every way, Sears is the opposite. The 29-year-old has been one of the most durable and reliable starting pitchers in baseball since joining the Athletics in the 2022 Frankie Montas trade. He doesn't throw hard and there frankly isn't much of anything special about him, but he's good for 32 starts of a mid-fours ERA every season. He has three additional years of team control remaining via arbitration.

De Vries is the clear prize of the deal for the Athletics, a consensus top 20 prospect in the game with some publications placing him in the top five or top three. The switch-hitting shortstop is holding his own at High-A this year as just an 18-year-old, significantly younger than all of his competition. He's expected to develop more power and has all the tools to become a stud. There's risk with any young player, but De Vries is as exciting as they come, and he's a huge return for a back-end starter and a reliever (no matter how dominant the latter may be).

The three arms in this deal are far less valuable, but they're still notable prospects. Nett throws hard and misses a ton of bats, but has always struggled with command. He's improved in that regard in 2025, but will need to continue to do so to develop into a big league starter. Baez looks like a back-end starter, with solid numbers throughout the minors but lacking a standout pitch to give optimism for more. Núñez is a hard-throwing reliever with poor command, in the Elvis Alvarado/Michel Otañez mold the A's have found some success with in recent years.

In all, this is a package the Athletics couldn't possibly say no to. Their offseason moves indicated a team looking to take the next step and move closer to contention, and they've held tightly onto Miller as a result, but when you have a chance to turn a reliever and a back-end starter into a franchise shortstop, you have to do so.

And for the Padres, it's obvious Preller is hungry for that World Series ring. His team is getting more expensive and all of his wheeling and dealing has left his farm concerningly thin. Who knows what will be left of the Padres by the time De Vries reaches the majors - their window is now, and it's time to go for it. The additional team control for both Miller and Sears will also help the team weather the upcoming free agency of pitchers like King, Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez, each of whom may be difficult for San Diego to retain.

This deal was accepted by our model as a moderate overpay by San Diego.

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Andrew Kittredge (-$3.1M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for SS Wilfri De La Cruz ($1.9M)

Kittredge is a fine reliever. He's in the midst of his sixth consecutive season with an ERA in the low threes or below (though three of those seasons were shortened due to injury). But his peripherals have always been a bit higher, and fWAR has seen him as closer to replacement level than those low ERAs would suggest. He's owed roughly $4.0M the rest of the way (including the buyout on his $9.0M club option for 2026).

While our model sees Kittredge as underwater on that contract, the Cubs gave up a real prospect for him in De La Cruz. The 17-year-old is hitting well in a small sample in the DSL this year, his first pro season. He's a lottery ticket, but one some evaluators like, and sometimes lottery tickets hit.

The deal was accepted by our model as a moderate overpay by Chicago.

Detroit Tigers acquire RHP Paul Sewald (-$1.5M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for a PTBNL or cash

The Tigers continued their dumpster diving by taking a chance on the injured Sewald. The 35-year-old signed with Cleveland in the hopes of having a bounceback season, but instead he injured his shoulder after 14 appearances. He made it back to the big leagues for four more appearances in July before reinjuring his shoulder. Upon acquiring the right-hander, Detroit transferred him to the 60-day IL, making him inelligible to pitch until September 10 at the earliest.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Shane Bieber (-$2.1M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for RHP Khal Stephen ($9.8M)

The baseball reasons for this trade are obvious. From some perspectives, Bieber was the only rental available with ace upside. His rehab is going well, and there's a very real chance Bieber could hit the ground running as the kind of pitcher who can carry Toronto through October.

But it's important to remember the realities of the situation. Most pitchers need time to shake off the rust following Tommy John Surgery, sometimes even a full season. But even in the best case scenario, Bieber's contract complicates matters significantly. He has a $16M player option for 2026 with a $4M buyout. If Bieber stays healthy and pitches well - like Toronto hopes - he'll decline the option and the Blue Jays will have to pay him $4M on his way out, making him a $7.3M rental. If things don't go quite as well, Bieber can exercise the option, and Toronto is on the hook for $16M next year for an underperforming (and/or injured) pitcher. The option is nothing but downside for the Blue Jays.

Still, it's a defensible risk to take given the Jays' position in the standings and resulting World Series aspirations. But the biggest issue is the price Toronto paid to acquire that risk. Stephen is one of the hottest pitching prospects in baseball. In his first pro season, the 2024 second-round pick is shooting through the minor leagues and soaring up prospect lists in the process. He's a polished young starter with command of three solid pitches. Honestly, his makeup and his minor league numbers are reminiscent of a young Bieber. If he's anything close to that, then six years of Stephen will be a haul for Cleveland.

Between the prospect price and the underwater contract, this deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Toronto.

 

July 30

Boston Red Sox acquire LHP Steven Matz (-$1.2M) from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for 1B Blaze Jordan ($1.8M)

In the final year of what was ultimately a disappointing contract for the Cardinals, Matz has found success out of the bullpen. He's not a leverage guy, but the lefty should be able to provide length for the Red Sox. He's owed $4M the rest of the way.

Jordan was once a highly touted amateur prospect. He's had an up-and-down minor league career, and while he's currently on the "up" swing, he'll be Rule 5 eligible this offseason and didn't have a spot in Boston. There's some upside here if Jordan can make adjustments, but his defensive limitations and swing decisions make him a likely 1B-only short-side platoon bat in the long run.

This deal was accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Boston.

Seattle Mariners acquire 3B Eugenio Suárez ($9.3M) from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for 1B Tyler Locklear ($2.1M) and RHPs Juan Burgos ($1.8M) and Hunter Cranton ($1.6M)

When the Mariners acquired Josh Naylor from Arizona, it was reported that Suárez remained their top target, despite plenty of other suitors and a high asking price. In the days since, some of those other suitors (namely the Yankees, Reds and Astros) pivoted to alternative options at third base, and Suárez had an injury scare after being hit in the hand by an errant fastball. Suddenly, he's a Mariner again, and for a package that looks lighter than the one Seattle gave up for Naylor.

Locklear makes or breaks this deal for Arizona. At one point, he was sneaking onto industry Top 100 lists, but a poor 2024 MLB debut and disappointing hard-hit rates led to concerning Evan White comparisons. A cold start to 2025 didn't help matters, but he's been on fire this summer thanks to a swing change that has enabled him to consistently hit the ball significantly harder. He should get plenty of playing time down the stretch for the Diamondbacks now that Naylor and Randal Grichuk are off the roster.

Burgos, like fellow new Diamondback Brandyn Garcia, made his MLB debut earlier this season for Seattle. The righty throws hard and should get opportunities given Arizona's weak bullpen. Cranton is also a relief-only prospect. The 24-year-old is further away from the big leagues, having only reached High-A (he signed as a senior in 2024, and missed time after being hit in the head by a comebacker in spring training this year), but he could move quickly.

Despite his age and poor defense, Suárez is a great addition for the Mariners, both on and off the field. Seattle finally has a lineup that should be able to support its excellent pitching staff.

This deal was accepted by our model as a minor underpay by Seattle.

Houston Astros acquire UT Ramón Urías ($0.9M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHP Twine Palmer (not in system)

After receiving the bad news that Isaac Paredes' hamstring injury may sideline him for the rest of the season, the Astros were left seeking yet another hitter. They've at least started to backfill here with Urías, a plus defensive third baseman whose bat has been around league average for his career. He's under team control through 2026 and he can play multiple infield positions, so more additions may be on the way.

Palmer is more than just a fun name; he's been effective as a starter in Single-A. If he makes the big leagues some day, it'll likely be as a reliever. But for the Astros, being able to trade a former 19th round pick out of an Oklahoma community college for an actual MLB upgrade already constitutes a win.

Cincinnati Reds acquire RHP Zack Littell ($3.2M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for LHP Adam Serwinowski ($1.8M) and RHP Brian Van Belle (not in system)

Tampa Bay Rays acquire C Hunter Feduccia ($1.3M) from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for LHP Adam Serwinowski ($1.8M), RHP Paul Gervase ($0.4M) and C Ben Rortvedt (-$0.2M)

Though this was reported by some as a three-team trade, it's technically actually two separate two-team deals, since the Dodgers didn't send a player to the Reds to complete the trifecta. Pedantics aside, it still makes the most sense to analyze these two deals in tandem.

The Reds' side is extremely simple: the Rays have developed Littell into a capable back-end starter over the last three seasons. His addition bumps Nick Martinez to the bullpen and provides stability as top prospect Chase Burns finds his footing and ace Hunter Greene makes his way back from injury. Littell, a rental, could find himself in the bullpen by the end of the year.

Tampa Bay ends up with a catching upgrade in Feduccia, a 28-year-old who was blocked in Los Angeles. He doesn't do anything particularly well, but also doesn't do anything too poorly; he looks like a more than capable backup to recent addition Nick Fortes (with Matt Thaiss somewhere in the mix as well). Van Belle isn't really a prospect, but the 28-year-old pitched well in six Triple-A starts for the Reds after being acquired from the Red Sox for cash. He looks like depth, but no one would be surprised if the Rays turned him into more.

The Dodgers sneak into this deal to turn a back-up catcher into an interesting prospect. Serwinowski is missing a ton of bats in the lower minors and looks like exactly the kind of prospect the Dodgers' piching dev can run with (see: Jackson Ferris). Gervase is optionable depth for an injured pitching staff, and Rortvedt is likely included to offload a bit of money for the Rays - but maybe, just maybe, he's also insurance for a possible Dalton Rushing trade.

Detroit Tigers acquire RHP Rafael Montero (-$1.0M) from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for IF Jim Jarvis (not in system)

Just under $3M of Montero's contract was dumped from Houston onto Atlanta in April, and now the Braves send the remaining $1M to Detroit. His ERA is high, but his peripherals show a fine middle reliever. Jarvis is org depth, a Double-A utility man who likely doesn't hit enough to have much of a big league future.

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Michael Soroka ($3.4M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for IF Ronny Cruz ($1.9M) and OF Christian Franklin ($1.8M)

This looks like a fair deal for a capable swingman in Soroka, who will give the Cubs flexibility to add more pitching to either their bullpen or their rotation on deadline day. He's been effective in the rotation this season, but his velo has dipped as of late and he was dominant out of the bullpen in 2024 for the White Sox.

Cruz is a complex league shortstop who looks the part, but has plenty of development to do and is showing the type of plate discipline issues common in teenagers at that level. He's a lottery ticket for sure. Franklin is an undersized 4th or 5th outfield type who's Rule 5 eligible. He's hitting decently in Triple-A and may get an opportunity as a short-side platoon player for Washington later this season.

New York Mets acquire RHP Ryan Helsley ($4.7M) from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for IF Jesus Baez ($8.2M) and RHPs Nate Dohm ($1.8M) and Frank Elissalt (not in system)

This is a much more traditional rental reliever overpay than the Mets' earlier deal for Tyler Rogers. Helsley fits the mold of the flamethrowing lockdown closer, though his fastball has straightened out on him a bit this year and made him less effective overall. Still, he has everything in his toolbox, and is always one tweak (or even just a hot stretch) away from sheer dominance. The Mets' bullpen looks incredible now.

Baez is the clear headliner, a polarizing 20-year-old infielder. While most prospect sources agree he isn't a shortstop long-term, they're split on his bat, some seeing impressive power that will play and others seeing a questionable hit tool that will be exposed in the upper minors. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs mentioned Maikel Franco in his evaluation of Baez, which may be a little concerning to some. Dohm and Elissalt look like relievers. Both have been effective in High-A, the former in the rotation and the latter out of the bullpen.

This deal was accepted by our model as a moderate overpay by New York.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire RHP Jhoan Duran ($25.7M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for C Eduardo Tait ($17.9M) and RHP Mick Abel ($5.1M)

The Phillies have searched for bullpen consistency for a few seasons now, and Duran should provide exactly that. He's a huge upgrade, and one with two years of arbitration remaining. The former top prospect has been remarkably consistent and effective since his debut in 2022, and between him and recent signing David Robertson, the Phillies bullpen looks much stronger than it did a couple weeks ago.

Last summer, not a single one of Baseball America's top 100 prospects was traded, but this year, Tait's inclusion broke that trend. The backstop was promoted to High-A a few weeks before his 19th birthday. He's an exciting prospect, pairing big power with a glove that looks like it may be above average behind the plate. His approach is a concern, but if he's a Sal Perez lite, that's a big addition for the Twins.

Abel was once an incredibly hyped prospect himself. While command issues have dropped his stock since then, he's righted the ship in Triple-A this year and still has the stuff to be an impact arm. He'll get a chance to start, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the Twins develop him into an effective high leverage reliever.

Seattle Mariners acquire LHP Caleb Ferguson ($1.1M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Jeter Martinez ($2.8M)

The Mariners were tied to most of the top relief arms, including more expensive and controllable targets like Jhoan Duran, but appear to have pivoted to a cheaper rental arm (at least for the time being). Ferguson is a reliable veteran lefty. He isn't missing as many bats as usual this season, but his low walk and home run rates have kept him effective.

Martinez is more than your typical lottery ticket. Plenty of prospect evaluators were surprised at his inclusion in this deal. The 19-year-old still has a lot of development to do, but there's real upside here, and the Pirates have done well with young pitchers in recent years. Keep an eye out for this name.

New York Mets acquire RHP Tyler Rogers ($0.2M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for RHPs José Buttó ($10.3M) and Blade Tidwell ($8.3M) and OF Drew Gilbert ($8.2M)

Holy overpay! This one goes into the BTV vault.

The model is clearly too low on Rogers, whose success has been unconventional but remarkably consistent throughout his career. We're planning on looking into tweaking the relief model to better account for players like Rogers, who have consistency and plus stuff despite lackluster strikeout rates.

But even accounting for an adjustment like that, this seems like a huge price to pay for a rental reliever, especially one who isn't the type of high-octane closer teams typically covet at the deadline. Buttó has been a capable (and valuable) big league pitcher for parts of the last three seasons. He's only pitched in relief this season, but don't rule out the possibility of the Giants stretching him out to start. The 27-year-old comes with five additional years of team control, but he's already out of options, which is already accounted for in his valuation.

Tidwell and Gilbert are the bigger names, two notable prospects having somewhat disappointing seasons. Tidwell made his big league debut earlier this season. The 24-year-old carries some relief risk, as he hasn't quite been able to reign in his command as he's worked his way up the minors, but that risk comes with mid-rotation upside if the Giants can polish him up. After headlining the 2023 Justin Verlander deal, Gilbert stalled in New York. He doesn't have a ton of power and hasn't hit left-handed pitching well. There's still upside, but his arrow is pointing down and he's looking more like a fourth outfielder.

It's worth noting that the Mets essentially cleared three 2026 roster spots with this move, as Buttó was on the 26-man (and out of options), Tidwell was on the 40-man and Gilbert would have needed to be added to the 40-man this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Clearing that roster glut appears to have been at least part of the Mets' motivation.

The deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by New York.

Cincinnati Reds acquire 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (-$8.9M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for IF Sammy Stafura ($6.7M) and LHP Taylor Rogers (-$1.3M)

In the first real shocker of the deadline, the Reds gave up talent to take on a contract that appears to be pretty clearly underwater in Hayes. The roughly $38.3M remaining on Hayes' contract over the next five-plus years doesn't make him an albatross by any means, and the $7M AAV is actually quite reasonable. But it's certainly a longer guarantee than any team would feel comfortable handing Hayes were he to become a free agent today.

As superlative as his defense continues to be, the Reds won't be very happy with this deal if Hayes continues to hit at a rate 40% worse than the league average, the way he has the last two seasons. They need an improvement, even to the 80 wRC+ level, for Hayes to be an everyday regular. If that doesn't happen, they'll still be stuck paying him for the next five years.

In exchange for that likely underwater contract, the Pirates add a quality shorstop prospect. Stafura runs well and has a solid glove. He's been an above average hitter to this point in his minor league career, but he'll need to refine his approach and cut down on his strikeouts if he wants to be successful in the upper minors. Rogers is a fine lefty reliever, and despite his subpar peripherals this year, the Pirates may find him a new home before the deadline passes, given the hot relief market.

Los Angeles Angels acquire RHP Luis Garcia ($0.2M) and LHP Andrew Chafin ($0.2M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for LHP Jake Eder ($1.8M) and Sam Brown (not in system)

"What are the Angels doing?" is something of an evergreen question. Year after year, they simply refuse to sell, even staring down a 53-55 record and 5.2% playoff odds according to FanGraphs. This isn't an offensive move by any means - Garcia and Chafin are serviceable veteran relievers, and the price is relatively low - but it also doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially if this means the Angels will be hanging onto trade chips like Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo and Kenley Jansen.

Eder, a former top prospect, was once the headliner in the 2023 trade that sent Jake Burger from the White Sox to the Marlins. Since, he's struggled mightily; his lowest ERA at any minor league stop was 5.09 (Double-A with the White Sox in 2024). He was DFA'd by the White Sox in March and traded to the Angels for cash, where he's continued to underperform. The Nationals will be the latest to take a chance on the lefty, and he may even slot directly into Chafin's spot in the bullpen. Meanwhile, Brown is a lefty first baseman in Double-A without a lot of pop. He looks like org filler at this point.

Atlanta Braves acquire RHP Tyler Kinley (-$1.1M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Austin Smith ($0.9M)

Another year, another underperforming reliever traded from Colorado to Atlanta. Kinley has always thrown hard, but struggles with locating his pitches and limiting hard contact. His peripherals this year are the strongest they've been since his small sample 2022 and there's plenty of red on his Savant page. If the Braves can get him to click outside of Coors Field, they'll be able to exercise his affordable $5M club option for 2026. If not, he's pitching depth for a team that desperately needs it.

This has already been Colorado's most active deadline in recent years, with more likely to come. Smith is a 26-year-old Double-A reliever, so certainly nothing flashy, but he has a plus fastball and is easily more valuable to the Rockies right now than a pending free agent.

New York Yankees acquire OF Austin Slater ($0.9M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Gage Ziehl ($1.8M)

Slater joins Amed Rosario as LHP-mashing rental hitters the Yankees have added to their left-handed heavy roster on the cheap. He also helps fill out the outfield in the wake of Aaron Judge's injury.

Ziehl was New York's fourth-round pick in 2024. He profiles as a possible depth starter, as he doesn't throw particularly hard or have a standout pitch. Still, this is another sign of good process for Chicago, turning a cheap veteran free agent signing into a possible future big leaguer.

 

July 29

Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Seranthony Dominguez (-$0.6M) and cash (unknown) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHP Juaron Watts-Brown ($2.3M)

For the second year in a row, Dominguez was traded at the deadline. This time, he was in the midst of a very solid season, easily his best since 2022. The hard-throwing righty misses plenty of bats, and this year he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard, compensating for a career-high walk rate. He's a rental owed roughly $2.7M down the stretch.

Watts-Brown is having something of a breakout year. The former third-round pick struck out the world in High-A before earning his first promotion to Double-A, where his strong season has largely continued. Improved command has been key to his success, though his repetoire (he's largely fastball-slider) gives him a fair bit of relief risk.

We don't currently know how much cash the Orioles are sending. Without any cash, the deal is accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Toronto, but the cash likely evens that out.

 

July 28

Milwaukee Brewers acquire C Danny Jansen (-$0.5M) and cash (unknown) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for 2B Jadher Areinamo

The cash value headed to Milwaukee has not yet been reported. With no cash involved, it's accepted by our model as a major overpay by the Brewers. If the Rays are sending at least $1.9M of Jansen's remaining $2.7M salary, it gets upgraded to a moderate overpay.

It isn't hard to see why our model doesn't like this deal for Milwaukee. Jansen is a rental whose 99 wRC+ is above average for a catcher. But his defense has not rated well this year and he projects to be worth less than a win down the stretch. Meanwhile, our prospect sources like Areinamo, a 21-year-old who walks almost as much as he strikes out and he can put a charge into the ball fairly regularly given his 5'8" stature.

But according to reports, the Brewers may have soured on Areinamo, who hasn't made the adjustments to his aggressive approach that they would have liked to see in his second stint in High-A. They also have a long track record of helping catchers improve defensively and likely have some adjustments in mind for Jansen.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire C Nick Fortes ($0.4M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for OF Matthew Etzel ($1.9M)

Fortes has never hit at all, but he's consistently rated as a plus defender, and the 28-year-old should help stabilize the catching position for the Rays during his next three years of team control. The cost was low, as Etzel looks like a fourth or fifth outfielder at best. For Miami, the priority was opening up spots at the big league level for highly regarded young catchers Agustin Ramirez, Liam Hicks and Joe Mack.

This looks like a pair of savvy trades for the Rays, especially given their position on the bubble of contention. They made a significant defensive upgrade behind the plate, adding the controllable Fortes at a low prospect cost. They then saved some money by shipping Danny Jansen to Milwakuee and added a much more valuable (at least according to our sources) prospect in exchange.

Detroit Tigers acquire RHPs Chris Paddack ($2.6M) and Randy Dobnak (-$2.0M) from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for C Enrique Jimenez

Despite flashing tantalizing upside from time to time, at this stage of his career Paddack has settled in as a back-end starter. That's exactly what Detroit needed to fill out its rotation, and that was before it announced that Reese Olson would miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Paddack is a fine rental option to lock in at a low price, but it wouldn't hurt for the Tigers to add another impact arm by the end of the week.

Dobnak is just a bit of a salary dump, as the 30-year-old has never been able to replicate his brief run of rookie success in 2019. He's owed $2M the rest of the way and is nothing more than depth. Jimenez is an interesting return for the Twins, a switch-hitting complex league catching prospect. He has a solid hit tool, but has plenty of development to do before he can be seen as a viable big league back-up.

 

July 27

Atlanta Braves acquire RHP Erick Fedde (-$0.5M) and cash (unknown) from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for a PTBNL or cash

A year after being dealt to St. Louis in the three-team Tommy Edman deal, Fedde was unceremoniously DFA’d and shipped off to Atlanta for salary relief. The 32-year-old was a replacement level player for the Cardinals in 2025, and they’ll be covering at least some of his remaining $2.7M in salary as he attempts to right the ship with Atlanta. The Braves are desperate for healthy arms, and despite his struggles this season, Fedde should at least be able to take the ball every fifth day.

July 26

New York Yankees acquire UT Amed Rosario ($0.5M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for RHP Clayton Beeter ($0.7M) and OF Browm Martinez (not yet in system)

Rosario plays multiple positions and hits left-handed pitching well, making the 29-year-old rental a great fit for the Yankees, particularly after their addition of Ryan McMahon. Beeter is a fastball/slider depth reliever who has only gotten a brief MLB cup of coffee, while Martinez is a lottery ticket outfielder hitting well in the DSL.

Kansas City Royals acquire OF Randal Grichuk (-$2.3M) from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for RHP Andrew Hoffman ($1.5M)

After adding Adam Frazier on July 16, the Royals failed to gain any ground in the playoff race and appeared to be sellers. But instead they continued to add on the fringes, adding a platoon outfielder in Grichuk who could easily pair with MJ Melendez.

It’s not too questionable of an approach - the next day, Kansas City would sign its most notable trade chip, starter Seth Lugo, to an extension, signaling its intent to keep the core together and see if it can sneak into the postseason - but it’s odd that the Royals couldn’t get any of Grichuk’s contract covered by Arizona. He’s owed a $3M buyout on a mutual option for 2026, and if the Diamondbacks had covered even a portion of that buyout, the values would have lined up nearly perfectly.

Still, it’s not an offensive move by any means. Grichuk hasn’t been great in 2025, but he’s always mashed left-handed pitching and has continued to hit them well this year. Arizona’s return is Hoffman, a 25-year-old right-handed reliever who made his MLB debut this year and sports a good changeup.

The deal was accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Kansas City.

July 25

New York Yankees acquire 3B Ryan McMahon (-$18.1M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for LHP Griffin Herring ($1.8M) and RHP Josh Grosz ($1.0M)

After weeks of being connected to every third baseman on the market, the Yankees jumped on McMahon, in a deal that our model is not a fan of.

McMahon is owed just over $36M through 2027. That isn’t an exorbitant amount, but it’s significantly more than our model expects McMahon to be worth in that span. He’s literally never been even a league average hitter by wRC+, his career-high 97 mark coming back in 2022. You’ll see some red on his Baseball Savant page, but also plenty of blue, as he’s always been held back by plenty of swing-and-miss. Maybe the Yankees think they can get more out of his bat, but he’s 30 now, and this is who he’s always been.

McMahon’s solid third base defense has helped him remain a somewhat productive player overall, but he’s a step below the Ke’Bryan Hayes/Matt Chapman tier. The final product is something like a 2.0-2.5 fWAR player, mostly driven by defense, who is entering his 30s. Teams typically don’t pay two years and $32M for that type of player, and that’s what he’s owed from 2026-27.

He’ll likely be fine overall for the Yankees over the next few years and provide stability at a position that has been something of a revolving door. But especially when factoring in the luxury tax implications, it seems like money that could have been better spent elsewhere.

Colorado’s biggest return here is salary relief. Herring throws strikes, but his fastball sits around 90 mph, leaving him as a back-end starter at best (and one who might not find much success at Coors Field). Grosz perhaps has better stuff, but is a less complete pitcher, and has a similarly low ceiling. These are a pair of lower minors depth arms who certainly aren’t bad players to add to Colorado’s system, but also won’t be missed much by the Yankees.

This deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by New York.

New York Mets acquire LHP Gregory Soto ($0.6M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for RHPs Wellington Aracena ($3.3M) and Cameron Foster (not yet in system)

David Stearns’ Mets tend to shop in the value bin for relievers, and this move is more of the same. Soto is a fine, albeit unspectacular, left-handed flamethrower. Command has always been a problem, but he’s perfectly fine as your fourth or fifth reliever out of the bullpen. Aracena is a live arm in the lower minors whose own control issues give him plenty of reliever risk, while Foster is a 26-year-old Double-A reliever having a fine season. This deal is accepted as a minor overpay by the Mets.

July 24

Seattle Mariners acquire 1B Josh Naylor ($4.0M) from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for RHP Ashton Izzi ($5.4M) and LHP Brandyn Garcia ($2.8M)

After weeks on the bubble, the Diamondbacks declared themselves sellers by trading the first of their four big rental players in Naylor. As a non-elite rental first baseman, Naylor’s value was limited, but he still provided a strong return.

Izzi was Seattle’s fourth-round pick in 2022, and he’s spent the 2025 season at High-A, where he’s missed a ton of bats. He has a plus changeup but has to improve his command to stick as a big league starter. Garcia made his big league debut less than a week prior to the trade. The lefty has a funky arm slot and will slot directly into Arizona’s deep bullpen.

Naylor is a perfect fit for the Mariners, who sorely needed infield upgrades. He lacks the thump typically associated with his position, but he’s a great contact hitter who can still put a charge in the ball from time to time.

Perhaps the Mariners paid a bit more than our model would have expected, but it’s still well within our normal margin of error, and Seattle shouldn’t be losing sleep over this deal. It was accepted by our model as a moderate overpay.

July 17

Atlanta Braves acquire RHP Dane Dunning (-$0.6M) from the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP José Ruiz (-$0.4M) and cash

The Braves have been shuffling arms through their roster all season, and Dunning is the latest they add in the hopes of finding a solid swingman. He’d bounced between Triple-A and the majors for Texas in his final option year, and he has one year of arbitration remaining if he can find success in Atlanta. Ruiz had been a capable middle reliever, but 2025 has been a disaster. The Rangers will give him another change of scenery after his short stint with the Braves.

July 16

Kansas City Royals acquire UT Adam Frazier (-$0.4M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for SS Cam Devanney ($1.1M)

Amidst a rush of injuries, the Royals went out and grabbed Frazier, who was having a very Frazier-esque season (83 wRC+ with Pittsburgh). He’s a rental utility man. Devanney is a career minor leaguer who was tearing the cover off the ball at Triple-A at the time of the deal, albeit as a 28-year-old.

July 10

Tampa Bay Rays acquire RHP Bryan Baker ($5.2M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Competitive Balance Round A draft pick ($4.2M)

The Rays effectively kicked off the trade season by sending a spare draft pick to Baltimore in exchange for a live arm in Baker. Competitive balance picks can be traded once each, and Tampa Bay had two at the time, having acquired one from the Athletics in the offseason Jeffrey Springs trade. This move gave the Orioles a total of six draft picks in the first two rounds, which certainly doesn’t hurt given their 2025 struggles.

Baker’s surface numbers don’t jump off the page, but he throws hard and misses tons of bats. His peripherals were much better than his ERA in 2024. He comes with three additional years of team control. So, basically, he’s the perfect Rays reliever.