Yankees & Reds

Submitted by: WillTomlin2

Yankees

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Nick Castellanos29MajorsOFHigh330.448-17.6-21.1-17.6-14.1
Luis Castillo28MajorsSPLow313625.2110.891.8114.8137.8

Total Value:

97.2

Reds

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Clint Frazier26MajorsOFMedium442.518.124.421.926.831.7
Jordan Montgomery27MajorsSPRHRPMedium348.118.529.623.729.635.5
Oswald PerazaMinorsSS11.2911.213.4
Clarke SchmidtMinorsRHP22.317.822.326.8
Canaan SmithMinorsOF7.66.37.68.9

Total Value:

97.5

WillTomlin2

My take on the Luis Castillo to Yankees possibility. Would like to see a trade for either him or Kyle Hendricks.

GhostofDickWilliams

Not a chance. So Yankees fans think we are giving up an ace in Luis Castillo under team control through the 2024 FA period for: -Bust former top prospect Clint Frazier, who is now 26 and would be a liability in the OF with Winker -#4 to #5 pitcher in Jordan Montgomery, who is 27 and still hasn't fully recovered from TJ!? -A 24 year old pitching prospect profiling as a #3 to #4 pitcher in Clarke Schmidt... - and a couple throw in prospects. Yet the Yankees keep Jaason Dominguez and Devi Garcia? No thanks. These Yankee proposals are all trash.

WillTomlin2

I’m not against including Garcia as well. But Reds fans seem to think they’re getting Dominguez or even Gleyber Torres. To that I say “Not a chance.” Also I think it’s funny how Frazier is a “bust” and a “liability” in the outfield after the season he’s had. His bat has always played at the major league level and he vastly improved his defense this past season. I would much rather have Frazier in LF than Castellanos and his contract, but you have to give for a pitcher of Castillo’s pedigree. I don’t think the trade proposal here is as wild as you think. I understand you don’t want to lose Castillo, but his value only goes down from here on out with every year of control that goes away. Either the Reds trade him now when his value is highest, or wait and trade him for a fraction of his highest value.

GhostofDickWilliams

Additionally, why I said Clint would be a liability is because our current LF Jesse Winker is a liability in his own right. Castellanos was our RF, so we would essentially have two poor fielding corner outfielders. That's what I was getting at. Clint Frazier would have to play RF for the Reds.

WillTomlin2

I understand overvaluing prospects. Believe me, I’ve been on Twitter and seen Yankees fans who think Frazier + Andujar + Florial is enough for Castillo. Obviously, I don’t believe that. However, I do not think this trade proposal is a bunch of “broken pieces” I feel like you are undervaluing Frazier’s bat and the strides he’s made on defense. With consistent playing time, I’d be willing to bet money on him being an All Star multiple times throughout his career. He replaces Castellanos’ bat for you guys, while providing better defense on a much cheaper contract. Reds have expressed interest in ridding themselves of Castellanos’ and Moustakas’ contracts. Yankees take care of one of those contracts in this hypothetical trade. Montgomery and Schmidt are also guys with upside that are ready to contribute now and help the Reds contend in that wide open division. I’m definitely not saying that the Reds absolutely have to trade Castillo right now. What I am saying is that his trade value will only continue to go downward. If the Reds are intent on selling Castillo at his highest value, now is the time to do so. The trade proposals that the Reds will receive in a year will not look as good as the trade proposals they receive now.

erad14

The trade won’t get done without dominguez

GhostofDickWilliams

The problem is, we don't need to trade him. The Reds put out feelers, and it's obviously clear the Yankees are interested. We're putting feelers out on all players, with a new GM, to gauge interest. The packages I've seen, like yours, would not get it done. Not for an ace under such an affordable rate. Especially since the Reds are not intent on another rebuild. Fans over value their own prospects and players. Every fan base is guilty. However, logically, flip the perspective. If the Yankees had a young controllable ace under team friendly control, and you are in contention (as bad as the NL Central is, the Reds are contenders, and I believe the Yankees are obviously contenders) and all you get back on a proposal is broken pieces, do you think the Yankees would do that? Of course not.

GhostofDickWilliams

Finally, Moustakas is the contract the Reds need to unload. Castellanos, being younger than Mike Moustakas, can still rebound. I think Mike needs to go back to the AL and DH. He is miscast on the Reds and in the NL.

WillTomlin2

Appreciate the thumbs up. I definitely believe Torres and Dominguez are untouchables, and I feel as if the Yankees view them both that way. For the record, I don’t think a deal comes to fruition for these two clubs. I feel as if the Yankees will end up going after Kyle Hendricks or Joe Musgrove instead, as the Reds likely want Dominguez or Torres. Anyways, I enjoyed debating this trade scenario with you. Good luck to your Reds this season. I have an uncle who is a Reds fan, so I tend to pull for them whenever they aren’t playing the Yankees.

TarHeelRed

I'm glad that Nick Krall finally addressed all these trade rumors on a national level (MLB.com) instead of just on local media. The Reds are NOT trading Castillo or Gray or Suarez. If other teams want to call and discuss these players he will listen (this has been a standard practice for generations) but he has no intention of trading any of the three. He also stated that he is under no orders to further reduce payroll. Maybe this will put these absurd rumors to rest...I hope so.

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mp2891

Krall basically had to after MLB.com posted this ridiculous article - https://www.mlb.com/news/luis-castillo-trade-fits. I added up the value of all the Yankee players mentioned as forming the basis of a trade package and the value wasn't even 1/3 of Castillo's value. Plus, the rumors that Frazier and Andujar alone were worth Castillo... Just ridiculous. But that's how the national media views the Yankees and small teams. The small teams exist just to serve the big teams. Anyway, as for the above trade proposal, I don't view it nearly as harshly as Ghost does, if you assume two things: (1) the Reds are not competing this year, and (2) the Reds want to maximize Castillo's overall trade value. I can't answer the first question, as the Iglesias trade suggested to me that the Reds weren't competing, but Reds fans say otherwise. As a Rays fan though, I can tell you that addressing #2 is difficult. When you have a pitcher valued at over $100M, trading him is damn near impossible. Few teams can (or want to) part with that much trade value for one player. The Rays went through the same thing with Archer a few years back. It was over a year before his value fell enough for them to trade him. But boy was that trade awesome. Meadows, Glasnow and Baz... oh my! The Reds could look to acquire something like the package outlined above, and then look to immediately part with players they don't really like or need, or they can hold out for a package of lesser overall value but higher quality pieces. The second option is the Rays' way, and what I would expect for the Reds. Drilling down specifically on the above trade proposal - Personally, I think Frazier's upside is limited. Steamer projects him as a below .800 OPS player with average defense, which is the profile of a 4th outfielder for many teams. Montgomery is a #2-3 pitcher in a poor system, which is what the Reds' rotation would be with the loss of both Bauer and Castillo. He's not a bad pitcher to have, but with little upside, he's a steep fall from Castillo. Schmidt and Peraza seem like fine prospects to me, but neither is viewed in the truly upper echelon of prospects. They are decent enough and could develop into top players for the Reds, and for what it's worth, I prefer Schmidt to Garcia (he's rated higher by some services and I just don't believe a 5'9 pitcher is going to hold up over the course of a full season). Still, this package seems underwhelming to me too, all the more so when compared to the Snell trade. So at the end of the day, if this is the best the Yankees are willing to offer, I'd pass if I were the Reds. Quality is always better than quantity.

GhostofDickWilliams

Wow! Great posts all the way around here fellas.

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johnbitzer

Agreed. Great discussion.

GhostofDickWilliams

I wonder if the Yankees and Reds would do this deal with a couple amendments...let me post one idea that I think the Reds would do, not certain the Yankees would, but it would satisfy all of the Reds desires, IF they are so inclined to continue unloading contracts...

WillTomlin2

Thank you all for providing each of your perspectives on this hypothetical trade. Love the discussion that has taken place here. Seems as of now a deal won’t happen between these two clubs. Reds asked for Gleyber, as I thought they would, and Yankees said no. Definitely makes sense for both clubs. I can’t blame the Yankees for balking on trading Gleyber just like I can’t blame the Reds for refusing to trade Castillo without the inclusion of him. Still hope the Yankees end up making another addition to their pitching staff to put them over the top.

GhostofDickWilliams

Will, I'm giving you a thumbs up because you're a rational dude. It's just not the right package for the Reds. Our biggest holes, if we traded Castillo, would still be SS and at least two SP. I'm just not sold at all on any of the players you mention. You already said Dominguez and Torres are untouchable, I think right there is why a deal won't happen. Sorry man.

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