Pirates & Twins
Submitted by: pinkiepinkerton
Pirates
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilberto Celestino | Minors | OF | 8.5 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 10.2 | ||||||
| Blayne Enlow | Minors | RHP | 4.1 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Total Value:
12.6
Twins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 28 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 24.1 | 5.6 | 16.3 | 13 | 16.3 | 19.6 |
Total Value:
16.3
Comments
5Oddly, Enlow is a higher ranked prospect than many of the Twins players BTR has above him in value, including Celestino. He's got steam, as the kids like to say. He should probably slot at a value of 9.0ish. Pirates are unloading and this gives them two of the Baseball America ranked Top 10 prospects in the Twins system, which ranks in the Top 10 in the league. Both have great upside and are projected to at least be MLB players one day, with both even being solid starters if things roll right. Twins get a solid, controllable SP for 2 years and payroll flexibility to fill out the rest of the roster the way they would like for 2021 since alternatives are going to cost $10mil+ for a SP of Taillon's caliber on the FA market. This is a trade I could actually see happening. Twins have depth and need. Pirates are selling off anything of value. I'd love to see it happen.
I agree, I've been pushing for the Twins to make a run for Taillon all off season. The Twins need to fill the #4 spot in the rotation, and this is an affordable option. The Pirates would be getting a couple players that would be ready in a couple years, which would fit their window.
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To your point about Enlow: it depends which source you're using. He's ranked 17th, with a 40 grade, on Fangraphs' latest list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-minnesota-twins/ That's one of our sources, so it's dragging down his value a bit. Also, pitchers have higher injury risk than hitters, so their values tend to be lower than similarly-rated hitters.
Completely agree on pitchers being lower. I am surprised to see him so low on Fangraphs. Sands is legit, but I've never seen Josh Winder on any Top 20 or even 30, list for the Twins. I don't agree with that. Enlow seems to be getting the shaft on Fangraphs. That is likely the lowest ranking you will see for him by any outlet. Baseball America has him at #9. The bit I've collected from all the different prospect ranking publications over the last couple of years is that you could comfortably place him anywhere in the 9-14 range in their system. I would put his FV closer to 45 on the Longenhagen scale. At least a 40+. Maybe he got Enlow confused with Winder?😜 So maybe not a 9.0. I would say he should at least have more value than Matt Wallner in the Twins system, and just a bit less than Sabato (being a 1B out of the draft means you have very little margin for error). So maybe a 6.5 to 7.0. Somewhere in there. Also John, I love what you guys are doing. This is brilliant! The podcast is such a great addition. And I know you guys mention on there about sharing insights about your own teams to help with values. So I want to give feedback on the Twins. Because if the Pirates would prefer Matt Wallner and/or Gabriel Maciel instead, the Twins would likely be thrilled. I get the feeling they value Enlow closer to Sabato and Cavaco. They'd probably be more welcome to trading either of those guys than Enlow, which is why I chose Enlow. If the Twins have more reservations about getting rid of Enlow to make this deal happen, it's probably the guy the Pirates would also value most. Of course, I'm willing to be proven wrong...if that's possible🤷♂️
Thanks for the kind words! And yes, we always welcome your input on the Twins. In Enlow's case, we do have BA as our highest-weighted source for prospects, so that helps his value here. We'll keep an eye on him.