Rays & Giants
Submitted by: angelzneedpitcherz
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison | Minors | LHP | 15.4 | 12.3 | 15.4 | 18.5 | ||||||
| Sammy Long | 25 | Majors | SP | LHRP | Medium | 6 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Jairo Pomares | Minors | OF | 7.6 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 9.1 |
Total Value:
24
Giants
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 27 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 39.4 | 11.6 | 27.8 | 22.2 | 27.8 | 33.4 | |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 31 | Majors | OF | Medium | 2 | 11.9 | 14.7 | -2.8 | -3.4 | -2.8 | -2.2 |
Total Value:
25
Comments
12
I second and third the comments of Shaq and Boss. I'll also give my usual Rays stance on trading KK, which is this - BTV may calculate a negative value for KK, but I cannot see the Rays trading a 2.5 fWAR player on a 1 year contract with 1 year option (ie: limited risk and decent upside) for negative value. KK won't return a ton, but he will return something. There are just too many teams in need of a CF, as there usually are. Plus, the Rays might not even want to trade KK. As far as this trade goes, I'd say there isn't as much upside in Harrison and Pomares as I would want in a trade for Glas. They're all decent pieces though, Long included.
I didn't mean that Kiermaier was a bench bat: Kiermaier could be a bat on the bench who could pinch hit and defensively substitute into CF. Also, at this point in his career after his surgery, he'll probably decline in his batting skills to below-average, although his superb defensive skills should still let him make it in the majors.
The Rays have come to the point with Tyler Glasnow where they trade away their star players for a good package of prospects. Glas's trade value is complicated by his inability to stay consistently healthy, but many teams will be willing to trade a decent prospect for one year of an ace-level starter. (Glasnow is injured through 2022, so the team receiving him will have to eat his salary for a year.) Adding to the Rays' motivation, Kevin Kiermaier is a good trade candidate this winter. Packaging him with Glasnow would result in a good prospect haul. Kyle Harrison is a good, young pickup as a lefty who could seriously buff his trade value down in TB, where pitchers have a reputation of absolutely killing it. Sammy Long is a good mid-90s option, who could start at Triple-A before going to the MLB. Again, the Tampa Bay effect could really boost his TV. Finally, Pomares is another addition to a outfield which might need a bit of prospect depth. The Giants are losing basically all of their SP's this offseason. Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, and others are all free agents this winter. Adding Glasnow would fortify their rotation for 2023, where Joey Bart has already solidified himself as a good backstop and a few other prospects have graduated. 2023 could really be their year. Kiermaier would just be a salary dump; maybe a bench bat and a defensive sub? I'm not sure. Feedback appreciated!
Kiermaier might be slightly overpaid, but he's no bench bat.
Agreed. KK's value is primarily in the field. If he isn't roaming CF, I don't know why a team would trade for him.
KK just posted one of his best offensive seasons in a couple years, especially the second half (129 wRC+) and continues to be one of the best defensive CF in baseball, adding up to a 2.5 fWAR this past year. He is not a bench bat at this point in his career. He had a positive BTV value until it was announced he had minor arthoscopic surgery, but it should only sideline him 6 weeks, and should be full go for spring training.
If the Rays were to extend him, what would that look like? It's unlike them to let a veteran walk. With the White Sox likely an exception, every team in October would have started him in CF if he was on their roster. The Jays would have moved Springer to a corner. He's 2.5fWAR and 3.5 bWAR even in a part time, nagging injury basis.
I see zero reason for the Giants to trade Harrison for a guy that won't even be playing in 2022. San Francisco is very big on Harrison, and for good reason. And Kiermaier is an expensive, less talented Steven Duggar. The Giants have no use for him.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
KK's value was positive until the news of his surgery broke. We know from watching the market that teams tend to shy away from those situations until the player can show he's fully recovered. There is also a market bias against aging CFs with KK's profile, because their bodies tend to break down as they age due to all the hard play. We think the news of his surgery will only confirm that bias among many teams. It also doesn't help that JBJ had such a dreadful year, and that the market is flooded with similar aging CFs who once played sensational defense, but whose best days are behind them (Pillar, Lagares, etc.). KK Is a tier above those, but there's nonetheless a downward gravitational pull there.
LOL... I can't help myself. 2021 results & Steamer Projections in 2022 *KK: 2.5/1.7 fWAR *JBJ: -0.8/0.1 fWAR *Pillar: 0.7/0.3 fWAR *Lagares: -0.3/0.1 fWAR KK is considerably more valuable than the other 3 in my opinion.
Sigh. Clearly I didn't do a good job of communicating my point. Of course KK has much more value than those guys. He's worth about $12M in field value, according to our model. The rest are not close to that. But I wasn't trying to compare their values now. I was trying to make the point that every hard-nosed CF eventually collapses in value, as those guys have. KK hasn't yet, but it's coming. It's a matter of when, not if. And because that pattern is well-established in the marketplace, it gives other teams pause, and adds an element of risk to his profile. I hope that's clearer.
John - I was just having fun with you. I understand your point. On the field value and trade value are different. We'll see how the offseason plays out. I'm not convinced the Rays want to trade KK after the season he had, with J.Lowe still a little ways off, but if they do decide to trade him, I think there will be plenty of teams interested in assuming his contract whole. We will see...