Guardians & Cubs
Submitted by: ChicagoWhales
Guardians
Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Willson Contreras | 30 | Majors | C | High | 0.5 | 15.1 | 4.8 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 12.3 |
Total Value:
10.3
Cubs
Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tanner Burns | Minors | RHP | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.1 | ||||||
Joey Cantillo | Minors | LHP | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | ||||||
Angel Martinez | Minors | SS | 6.3 | 5 | 6.3 | 7.6 |
Total Value:
10.9
Comments
11Why I set up this trade: Considering Cubs GM, Carter Hawkins, used to work for the Guardians, it makes sense that the two teams would make a trade since Hawkins knows the system really well. I was tempted to do a straight-up Contreras for Nolan Jones, but I don't think the Guardians would move one of their top guys for a 2 month rental that they have no chance of resigning. The Guardians have such a great track record of producing pitching prospects, that I think the Cubs would identify pitchers that aren't the top-level of Cleveland's system, but would still be really good pieces. Tanner Burns (23 year old RHP starter) is doing well in AA right now and he would give the Cubs a much needed additional starter to a system that desperately needs more of them. Joey Cantillo (22 year old LHP starter) is also doing really well in AA right now and even if he doesn't remain a starter -- having a LHP reliever would be so beneficial to the organization. The highlight of the trade is actually Angel Martinez, the 20 year old INF who currently has a wRC+ 139 in A+. Even though the Cubs have numerous INFs in their lower levels (Cristian Hernandez, Kevin Made, an injured Ed Howard), I still would consider this for the Cubs because Martinez would add depth and quality. I'm not concerned about a potential logjam of SSs in A+/A, because these things tend to 'work themselves out' and I'm confident these players could switch between SS and 2B as needed. I understand that Cubs fans might hope for a bigger prospect to come back in a trade for Contreras. And it's entirely possible the Cubs hold out and wait for a team to blink and overpay for Willson. Perhaps even the Guardians blink and offer Nolan Jones. It's also possible the Guardians don't trade for any player with only 2 months remaining on their contract since that is not their M-O. But Hawkins's former Cleveland connections and the depth of the Guardians's system makes a lot trade possibilities with the Cubs.
ChicagoWhales, I thought your comments were well thought out and made a lot of sense. Thank you for looking at any trade from both teams' viewpoint. I agree with your last paragraph that I don't see Cleveland trading for a rental. If they would, I think your proposal is closer than others than have been presented here.
Personally, I love looking at trades with thoughtful explanations. I think Cleveland would consider this, although based on Cantillo's performance this year they might value him higher than the model and look to retain him. The Guardians certainly have the pitching depth to mix and match here.
Cantillo wasn't added to the 40 man cause of injury concerns. I think his value is about right because of the injury concerns (and the fear he ends up being a relief not a starter). I think also Cleveland is willing to move Tena not Martinez, but otherwise the trade makes sense if Cleveland wants a rental C...
Cheers, thanks for the comment. Cantillo might be one of those guys that's rising up the system and you're right, internally, the Guardians might have him more highly regarded than the mainstream baseball media outlets. I absolutely agree that the Guardians have so many pieces to mix and match so there are a lot of options. It's just whether they want a rental for Contreras, which is not very Cleveland-like.
This is a good example of how the majority on this site should behave. It's considerate and well thought out even if I don't agree with everything said. Thanks CW, it's appreciated. There have been no rumors or whispers of Cantillo becoming a BP arm and he is pitching very well in AA. I think Burns is more likely to be a BP buy, but he's doing well as a starter so it's anybody's guess. I can't see Chernoff and/or Antonetti signing off on this deal for the short term control of Contreras. If he had another year of control then this deal could probably be more realistic. As far as I know Hawkins maintains a good relationship with Antonetti and Chernoff so there may be a deal to be had here. We'll see in less than a month.
Cheers, thanks for the comment. Upon reflection, I don't think the Guardians do much of anything at the deadline barring a big run in the next couple weeks. With a .500 record they won't make any bold moves -- nor should they. I just figured if the Guardians were to make a move, the guys I listed above are the type of players they would have to send back considering they won't give up their top guys for a 2-month rental.
I don't really know and anything could happen, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Guardians were sellers at the deadline creating more opportunities for ready prospects while at the same time adding valuable prospects that do not have to be rostered. A big run could still happen, but if it does it will be do to more prospects getting promoted and performing. Just my $.02. I do think they could add a few of their own prospects to any deal(s) for a better return and Burns could very well be one of those. They're extremely high on Cantillo and his performance has only reinforced that feeling so I don't see them moving him at this time. If they did it would likely be in a package for a longterm controlled player like Reynolds. Again, just my opinion.
Love your post and what you say makes 100% sense. I think if you would take Tena over Martinez, I think Cleveland does the deal if they are still in contention at the trade deadline...
Cheers. Thanks for comment. You know, from a Cubs perspective, my fear is that Tena has hit a wall this year in AA and that he won't have the bat to hit MLB pitching. Of course one could counter that Tena is only 21 years old in AA and that this is an opportunity to 'buy-low' on him. Also, one could argue that Martinez might also have a sub 100 wRC+ just like Tena, once he gets to AA. So you never know. Personally, as a Cubs fan, I would only take Tena over Martinez if the Indians parted with a 'better' pitching prospect than Burns or Cantillo.
Who were you thinking? Allen definitely wouldn't be available, so you wouldn't get higher than Burns, so is there someone you would want outside of Cantillo?