Orioles & Guardians
Submitted by: DBA
Orioles
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | Minors | RHP | 6.2 | 5 | 6.2 | 7.4 | ||||||
| Jhonkensy Noel | Minors | 1B | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.6 | ||||||
| Gavin Williams | Minors | RHP | 28.4 | 22.7 | 28.4 | 34.1 |
Total Value:
37.6
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins | 27 | Majors | OF | Medium | 2 | 68.9 | 29.1 | 39.9 | 31.9 | 39.9 | 47.8 |
Total Value:
39.9
Comments
13
Cleveland says no... Mullins hasn't proved her is worth that much especially to a small market team like Cleveland. Also Cleveland isn't moving Williams... Bibee is worth way more than 6 as well.
I find it entertaining watching Williams' value increase in small increments like someone is wary of admitting they were wrong or had no idea. I find it humorous that Bibee's value is listed at 6.2. If people only knew. Cleveland doesn't need another LHH and they don't need Mullins at that cost. Don't get me wrong, Cedric Mullins is a damn fine ball player. He's just not a fit for the Guardians at this time and at that cost.
Hey man, there's nothing going on out of the ordinary with the valuation changes on Williams. The model is just following ratings and rankings from public prospect outlets. Once again, if you think Williams is too low, take it up with those sources.
Did I say there was something going on out of the ordinary? I don't need to take it up with the public prospect outlets John. I've told you that they have no weight in evaluating Cleveland prospects and that Cleveland's player development is tighter lipped than pretty much every other organization in MLB. It's the very reason why Espino's value skyrocketed rapidly. It will be that exact reason Williams' and Bibee's do the same should they remain healthy. I've stated on many occasions that this site does the best it can with the information it is given. I'm not sure why you would take offense to what I stated as it was directed toward the "public prospect outlets" that have very little time and information on Cleveland's prospects. In other words, you can't make use of what you don't have. I don't view it as your fault.
He’s just a bit tired from the Cleveland group saying this value is wrong on this player is all (I know I don’t help lol) when you watched/are informed about players everyday and since this site uses BA and we don’t, things are going to be off since BA has their own personal opinions. They aren’t as bullish on Bibee as Law and MLB.com is. We hear and see things first, so we will always have a different value on Cleveland prospects than here because of that fact. We got to see and watch Kwan before his success, so we just have to believe their rankings are national media while are ours are closer to Cleveland’s FO rankings.
Hey, I appreciate the kind words. But you literally said, "I find it entertaining watching Williams’ value increase in small increments like someone is wary of admitting they were wrong or had no idea." The noun in that sentence is "value," which applies to the purpose of this site, and which the rest of the sentence is mocking in an arrogant tone. So you shouldn't be surprised that it gets a reaction here. BigBat, I would advise you to speak here with some humility. Perhaps you have some in real life -- I know it can be difficult online to read tone or get a true picture of a person. But the consistent picture that most people see of you is of a person who insists that his opinion is always right, and everyone else's is wrong, and who can't understand why anyone could possibly disagree with him. It would be good to temper that.
You misunderstood what I was saying then and I apologize for that. My issue isn't with you or the values this site assigns. Like I said, you do the best you can with the information presented to you. My issue is entirely with BA and other scouting agencies. They have a wide margin for error and speak on what I think is very little actual information. Having said that, there is a lot of information available to us fans if you are willing to do the legwork. A few of us Cleveland fans here are fortunate enough to get some very useful information on a site that we frequent. I cannot and will not get into it any deeper than that. Trust me when I say that I have plenty of humility, but I know for a fact that some of these desired Cleveland prospects are not being given the credit that they deserve. There are also some that I think could very well be overvalued too, but ironically it's rarely them in a deal. That should speak volumes to folks here. I don't expect anyone here to agree with me. Everyone has their opinion, but I seriously doubt that any fans of other organizations have the in depth detail on Cleveland's prospects. When I propose a trade I do my best to consider the other team's needs. That courtesy isn't extended by some here and it gets old because a sensible, realistic conversation can't be had.
It's not hard to spot the Indians homers. FG had Williams as a 45+ guy in the spring. Does 40-something innings of good-but-not-great performance at AA as a 23yr old (plus another 40 of better work at high-A) change that? Maybe you can get him to a 50 if you stretch. But believe it or not, his most recent 6 innings aren't determinative. Can he leap from ~4BB/9 at AA now to being with the club in early 24? Also maybe. But far from certain. (And also "about 2 years away"). But Mullins as a FA this year seeking a 3-year deal would likely be getting north of $60M, and as an arb guy he'll cost a fraction of that (and he doesn't need to be a 130+ wrc guy to get there; no one thinks that 2021 is the baseline). Oscar Gonzalez is a low-BB, low-power, average-K guy who is skating by this year on an unsustainably high BABIP. If I am Cleveland, I am pulling some 2024/2025 wins into 2023, and and if I am Baltimore I am doing the opposite. This gets each there.
*Guardians! Old habits die hard.
First off let's reply to what you said. BigBat can have a strong opinion, but he also watches these players everyday and has heard from former players and scouts about Williams. We literally get updates on the Cleveland minor league players every single day including guys who are playing in Arizona or Dominican who have no TV coverage. These guys said right away Williams is a top 50ish prospect and the national media rankings didnt rank him well at all. You have to take all minor league numbers with a grain of salt especially since Cleveland is notorious for changing mechanics of draftee prospects. (Bibee is a great example) Yes Williams' BB rate is a bit higher than we would like, but a sub 1 WHIP and a sub 5 hits per 9, at AA in the league the Guardians are in, says worst case scenario is a 5th starter in the bigs. Baring injury, his numbers state he will make the bigs. Also when it comes to Mullins, he is overpriced pretty badly in Cleveland's FO minds it feels like since there wasn't a single rumor after the trade deadline they even inquired about him. Guardians also cut an OF with over .800 OPS at AAA to make room on the 40 man roster. They have 5 prospects including Gonzalez, trying to get the RF position in house and two have been rated top 100 prospects. They aren't spending what internally Cleveland believes to be a top 50 prospect on a position they have 5 prospects with legit minor league numbers on. Gonzalez may not be able to keep up his numbers, but until he shows he cannot why would they replace him with a guy who has a worse OPS+ and whatnot? My point is, as Cleveland fans, we aren't against Mullins, we just aren't willing to trade what Cleveland fans consider to be their number 2 and number 3 pitching prospect for Mullins when we have 5 prospects competing for the same position and one producing with their bat at a better clip. Ps. Gonzalez confused everyone with his bat, since he changed his approach from a power bat to a gap approach. He has 19 doubles in 190 PA... his bat control is better than expected, so is his sprint speed and with his natural power, he has borrowed some of Kwan's bat swings, but using his natural power to get hits.
Can you carry an intelligent conversation or are you just going to spew insults? Your proposal here is shit and you know it or you wouldn't be looking to move Mullins for 2 fantastic SP prospects that are nearly ready. Think I'm a homer then look at William's and Bibee's performances. You think OGon's performance is that of a 4th OFer? That's moronic in every sense when Mullins is providing and OPS+ of 105 this season and Gonzalez is providing Cleveland with an OPS+ of 124. Gonzalez is a low power hitter and skating by on an unsustainable high BABIP? I think you need to have a better understanding of the relationship between BABIP and exit velocity. Chernoff wouldn't trade Oscar Gonzalez straight up for Cedric Mullins. Who had Williams as a 45+ in the spring? What the hell does that even mean? Many national pundits viewed Williams as possibly being the best RHP in last year's draft. Guess what, he's proving to be exactly that. I'll tell you what. I'm going to stop being a homer and offer you Allen(17) and Noel(3) for Mountcastle(19.6). You get Noel, who you wanted in this deal and a SP prospect with a higher value than Bibee. Since making a trade is about both teams getting what they need in return and Cleveland needs a RHH 1B/OF/DH that plays capable defense this deal makes absolute sense. If you don't like it then you're being a homer.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Appreciate the feedback. Mullins may not be a superstar, but he's a cost-controlled (arb for 2023-2025) ~3win centerfielder. And Cleveland is a team that's going to give 1,000+ PAs this year to Myles Straw and Oscar Gonzalez - each of whom might make a fine 4th OF, but is not someone you want starting for a playoff team. Cleveland's window is now - the NL Central may be decided by a game or two this year, and the outlook for the next couple doesn't feel wildly different. They may love Williams, but he has yet to pitch his 40th inning above A-ball (and still has control problems) and is probably still a couple years away. Lines up better with the BAL timeline. I don't know that Baltimore does this if you take Bibee out, but you could possibly strike Noel and still make it work.
You are a bit behind, Williams just threw a 7 inning no hit outing, at AA and has more starts at AA than A+. He is due to make his MLB debut late 23/Early 24... Cleveland invested an extension with Straw, so regardless of what people think, he is the CF for Cleveland. Also Mullins has a 105 OPS+ in 22. He isnt worth 39 value to Cleveland. Mullins is overrated as a bat. He hasn't shown he can repeat 21, and Cleveland isn't willing to pay for 22 Mullins at the price of 21.