Rays & Mariners
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brash | 27 | Majors | RP | Low | 3.4 | 36.4 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 16.6 | |
| Harry Ford | 21 | Minors | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.4 | 15.5 | 19.4 | 23.3 |
Total Value:
33.3
Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | 27 | Majors | 1B | DH | Medium | 4.4 | 68.1 | 36.7 | 31.4 | 25.1 | 31.4 | 37.7 |
Total Value:
31.4
Comments
3
The Rays are 4th in their division, and won't be adding at the deadline, but all their competition will be. Their chances to make the postseason are still about the same after this trade. This move gives them a chance to have a franchise catcher for the first time in their history, and also gets them an excellent reliever with multiple years of control. Losing Aranda is a bummer, but the Rays have too many 1B types in the MLB and upper minors. I like Bob Seymour a lot more than most, and think his bat speed could play for the Rays. If they get lucky, the combo of Seymour/Mead/Morel isn't too much of a downgrade from Aranda's production, and their improved bullpen allows them to win the games that they lead, something they can't seem to do at a high enough pace to make the playoffs.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
If you believe the Rays won't be adding at the deadline, then I would agree with the statement that their chances of making the postseason aren't great. However, if they add a true 4th outfielder who hits LHP (e.g., D.Myers of the Marlins) or get Deluca back strong (he started a rehab assignment this week), AND add a high leverage reliever like Bednar, Santana, Rice, etc..., then I like their chances to make the post-season. In any event, trading away their best bat (Aranda) will absolutely have an effect on their post-season chances, taking them from a current coin-flip to maybe 30%. So if the Rays elect to sell Aranda at the Deadline, I want them to move a SP, Fairbanks and Diaz too. Go big or go home if selling. If this trade is an offseason trade, then I would prefer the Rays replace Brash with Celesten or Arroyo considering the state of the Rays' Farm (strong in pitching and weak in bats).
Well, it's not a coin flip. If it was, I probably wouldn't trade Aranda. Fangraphs gives the Rays a 37% chance of making the playoffs. That doesn't account for the Red Sox, BJs, Yankees, Mariners and Rangers being able to take on significant payroll that the Rays cannot. If the Rays have a 37% chance and then trade Aranda, now what are their chances? I think he's a 120 wRC+ bat for the last 65 games, and I think the combo of Seymour facing RHP and Mead facing LHP produces a platoon that roughly equals that. So I don't think trading Aranda greatly harms their post season chances. A few percentage points at most. If they can improve the pen long term and get a top tier catching prospect who is close to MLB ready, it's a trade off that should be considered. If Seymour hits to a 110 wRC+ clip and Brash becomes our best reliever, we might even come out ahead this year. Our pen has lost A LOT of games.