Rays & Reds
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt McLain | 24 | Majors | 2B | 4.4 | 24.3 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 12.7 |
Total Value:
10.6
Reds
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | 33 | Majors | 1B | Medium | 1.4 | 23.9 | 16.1 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 9.3 |
Total Value:
7.8
Comments
6
The Rays most ready prospects are first basemen. Their best prospects are first basemen. And their MLB team has too many 1st basemen. Solution...trade a first baseman. Bob Seymour is ready right now, even if his ceiling is as a LH Trey Mancini, he'd make a very nice LH DH bat. Dom Keegan is probably a 1st baseman, and his bat is MLB ready if they aren't sold on him being a C. Mead and Morel would both make acceptable platoons with Bob Seymour at DH for the rest of the year. Tre Morgan and X Isaac will both reach the MLB as 1B, although I'm not sold on either becoming everyday options at 1B. Last I checked, X Isaac was like 2/50 vs AA LHP with 25 strikeouts, and Tre Morgan had yet to hit his first AAA HR 150 PA into the season. I hate to lose Yandy, as he's one of the best hitters in baseball, but if they can stand to trade from a MLB position, it is without question, 1B/DH. The Reds find themselves a game over .500 with little output from any position other than SS and CF. This trade would get them 2 playoff chances with one of baseball's best hitters, and he his extremely affordable salaries. The Rays get themselves either their CF of the future, their SS of the future, or their 2b of the future. McLain's luck has been awful this year. In June, he had a 124 wRC+ due to a .360 BABIP. This month, he's hitting the ball 2 MPH faster per contact made, and he's had rotten luck. The Rays buy when he's at his lowest value, and expect his bat to trend upward quickly. He's gold glove capable at 3 positions, and should expect a 110-120 wRC+ yearly. A huge pickup for the Rays, even if it costs a fan favorite.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I'm not as convinced as you are on the projections for all these guys, but I agree that 1B/DH is a position of strength for the Rays. On McLain, I worry his ceiling is Caballero, not the 110-120 wRC+ gold glove defender you see. Admittedly, his BABIP is in the crapper this year and he's probably better than the topline stats show, but he ain't beating out B.Lowe at 2B or Kim at SS if both are back next year. I'm a fan of Mangum at all 3 outfield spots and the Rays are fans of C.Simpson at CF, so CF may be off limits to McLain too. If the Rays decide to go full rebuild and trade B.Lowe, Diaz, Kim, etc..., then this trade makes sense. Otherwise, it's a crowded active roster.
I hope we don't go full rebuild. I don't want him to beat out BLowe, but I'd love a better version of Caballero. They have a strong MLB roster, and with new owners, perhaps they have the desire to appeal to the community by adding some payroll. Caballero isn't a bad comp. I've always thought of McLain as a Taylor Walls type, but who hits the ball harder. And you know how much I love me some Taylor Walls. I've said all along that the day Walls BABIPs league average is the day he gets MVP votes. Got laughed at a lot, but I think it's showing now (he has 2.3 bWAR with a 65 wRC+ LOL). Best defensive glove since Andrelton, excellent base stealer, best eye in baseball (dude has a 12% walk rate even though pitchers know he can't hit it out of the infield). He is a star if he could hit just to a league average rate. I think what we are seeing this year is McLain's floor, and what we saw in '23 is his ceiling. If he gets to where he's capable of, a 120 wRC+ bat with gold glove defense at 6 positions and the ability to steal 30 bags. If he flames out, he's Taylor Walls.
The trade cost is reasonable and he might be worth a flyer. Rays would have to move someone like Walls or Cabby to make room for him though.
You seeing the Taj rumors? What do you think? I am actually impressed that they might keep Littell and go for it, even playing as poorly as they are. I see a Taj move as a means to improve the MLB roster without moving prospects. Just have Boyle/McClan take Taj's spot. These last 3 weeks have been brutal, but we went on a 4-14 run and still have a good shot to make the post season. Can't change the past, just have to improve the future. We'll undoubtedly be busy discussing trades soon, let's just hope we both like them.
Yep. I'm not surprised they are looking to move him. They have a 7 man rotation with Boyle and McClanny, and if BTV is correct on Littell's trade value, it really doesn't make much sense to move him. Bradley is arguably the worst of the starting pitchers but might have the most trade value because of his years of control. His ceiling remains very high though. The Rays have really left some of their SPs out to dry this year to protect the Pen, particularly Baz and Bradley. So he's better than his top line stats suggest, which supports his trade value. Add it all up and i think trading him might make a lot of sense if the Rays can get a trade package around his BTV trade value, and consisting of a mixture of current Major Leaguers and Prospects.