Diamondbacks & Mariners & Yankees

Submitted by: NOVOTNYZACK

Diamondbacks

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Harry Ford21MinorsC00019.415.519.423.3
Spencer Jones23MinorsOF00010.28.110.212.2

Total Value:

29.60

Mariners

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Josh Naylor28Majors1BDHMedium0.484.53.52.83.54.2
Alek Thomas25MajorsCFLow3.424.615.29.37.59.311.2
Carlos Lagrange21MinorsSP0005.44.35.46.4

Total Value:

18.20

Yankees

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Jalen Beeks32MajorsRPLow0.41.50.510.811.2
Merrill Kelly36MajorsSPMedium0.47.52.94.63.74.65.5
Pavin Smith29MajorsOF1BLow2.412.86.66.24.96.27.4
Eugenio Suarez33Majors3BLow0.411.76.25.54.45.56.6

Total Value:

17.30

NOVOTNYZACK

I think it's so hard to develop a trade simulation with the value they put on players specifically the Dbacks. I don't understand why Alek Thomas is valued at 9+ and Merrill Kelly is at 4ish. To me SP that are real solid are worth more IMO. I get that it's the final year of his deal but these values truly don't make sense.

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johnbitzer

You sort of answered your own question there, but here's the overview: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguer We have a 93% accuracy rate with our model over 6+ years, so the basis for the trade values has been established. It's surplus value -- the amount of "field value" a player is worth (think what they'd be worth if they were a free agent) minus their salary (since the acquiring team in a trade has to also pay the player). This is all calculated over each player's span of control. Kelly only has two months of control post-deadline, whereas a player with more years of control will typically have more.

NOVOTNYZACK

Does this calculate value based off of availability in the current market as well? "Buyer/Sellers" market? 5+ Teams need a 3B very badly and the Dbacks are holding the most productive player at that position.

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