Red Sox & Twins

Submitted by: PixiesPhan100

Red Sox

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Max Kepler29MajorsOFHigh224.118.55.64.45.66.7

Total Value:

5.6

Twins

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Matthew LugoMinorsSS5.64.55.66.7
Kaleb Ort30MajorsRHRPMedium60.80.70.10.10.10.2

Total Value:

5.7

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allenhunt

I think Kepler is a good fit in RF at Fenway but I’m not sure the Red Sox are interested in a rental

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Ms. Dajuba

BIG, BIG time pass on Kepler

allenhunt

Is it the player or the contract? Don’t forget the shift is banned next year, pullers, especially lefties, will get a boost

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Ms. Dajuba

He’s just like JBJ, just another black hole in the lineup, the banned shift won’t help him. I’m sure Bloom would love him for one year at $8.5m and be fine with parting with Lugo who is not one of his picks, I doubt he would include Ort, he’s one of his and one of the very first moves he made after taking over in oct 2020 (Ort was a rule 5 pick in dec 2020).

PixiesPhan100

First off I don't believe that Bloom really cares if the player was signed or acquired while he was GM or while someone else was GM. There's no evidence him or anyone else factors this in when making player moves. Kepler is a significantly better player than JBJ was. He walked almost twice as often and struck out half as often. But the main difference is that even if Kepler doesn't improve and basically gives you what he gave the Twins in 22, that's still valuable. In JBJs case, he actually did improve on his 21 numbers in 22 but it wasn't enough to make him a regular. I'd have to look into it more, but off-hand I think that Kepler is a player who was hurt by the shift. His XWOBA has hovered around .340 for a few years now while his WOBA has bounced around between .300 and .350. It could be that shifting explains this difference.

PixiesPhan100

Thank you Allen and dajuba for your comments. Kepler has a couple of qualities I like. He's an excellent defensive player doesn't strike out a lot and takes walks. He'd cost $10M for 2022 and has an option for 23. With a higher XWOBA than WOBA, you'd think he'd at least do a little better next year at the plate. Yes he's a rental, but after this year you can decide what to do in RF. By possibly making another trade when some of their prospects have more trade value. It works for the Twins because they could give a chance in RF to Matt Walner, or just sign Mitch Haniger for insurance. In return they get a young infielder with poor plate discipline but with upside and talent. As a bonus they get Ort who is 31 but has thrown 100 MPH. The Red Sox probably can't keep him anyways.

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Ms. Dajuba

Why can’t the Red Sox keep Ort? He still has an option & is making league minimum. And Kepler is due to make $8.5m in ‘23 - the last year of his 5 year deal ($9.5m if the 6th year team option for $10m is not picked up) Year Age Tm Salary SrvTm Sources Notes/Other Sources 2019 26 Minnesota Twins $6,000,000 2.152 contract 2020 27 Minnesota Twins $6,250,000 3.152 contract 2021 28 Minnesota Twins $6,500,000 4.152 contract 2022 29 Minnesota Twins $6,750,000 5.152 contract 2023 30 Minnesota Twins $8,500,000 2024 31 Minnesota Twins *$10,000,000 $10M Team Option, $1M Buyout Salary may increase based on awards Earliest Free Agent: 2024

PixiesPhan100

dajuba, I agree with your analysis of Kepler's salary. He'll cost $9.5M in 23 The reason they can't keep Ort is due to the 40 man roster crunch they have several players to protect. If you keep Ort on the roster you have to expose a player like Chris Murphy, Thadeus Ward, or Wikelman Gonzalez. All of these players are better and younger than Ort is. If they DFA him, he's likely to be claimed because as you said he has two options remaining, makes the major league minimum and can throw 100MPH. As for your other comment, I think Kepler is a better player than JBJ was after the 21 season. I'll elaborate on that a little later.

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