Rays & Mets
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Torrens | 29 | Majors | C | High | 1.7 | 15.5 | 2.4 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 15.7 | |
| Carson Benge | 21 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 10.9 |
Total Value:
22.2
Mets
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pepiot | 27 | Majors | SP | LRP | Medium | 3.7 | 44.8 | 25.7 | 19.1 | 15.3 | 19.1 | 22.9 |
Total Value:
19.1
Comments
12
The Mets need SP. The Rays need a RH batting C with good defense, and minor league outfielders that aren't 25 years old. This trade improves each team. The Rays can replace Pepiot with any of McClanahan, Ian Seymour, or Joe Boyle and expect similar or better production. Pepiot is arb eligible this off-season, and the Rays often like to move those guys before the payday. Rortvedt is the worst player in MLB. He has to go. Torrens can rake vs LHP, and provides excellent throwing and blocking, while being an average framer. Pepiot slots into the Mets rotation and provides some much needed above average starting pitcher ability.
I'm a big fan of Benge and would love to see the Rays acquire him. Giving up Pepiot for him though, right when Pepiot is starting to get hot? Over the past 5 games, Pep has allowed a 2.76 ERA and 3.44 FIP, and has his HR issue from earlier in the season under control (0.61 HR/9 during this time). Is this selling low on a SP who is probably a solid #3 for most teams? I don't know.... Torrens is having a good year (and a great month of May), and he would definitely improve the Rays, but is 1.5 years of Torrens enough to round out this trade? I think I like this trade if the Rays are standing pat (or buying) at the Deadline. As Shaq points out, Rort is horrible, so this trade would see the Rays add 1-2 Wins through Torrens alone (ie: Torrens positive WAR plus Rort's negative WAR). If they're selling at the deadline, then I don't think this trade works, even if Torrens would solve their catcher position for 2026 at a very low cost.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-pepiot-686752?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb ______------________ NEW PARAGRAPH _______-------- Pepiot: xERA: poor. xBA: awful. Exit velos: poor. Whiffs and K: poor. Barrels: poor. Hard hit % poor. He's a nice #3 or #4, but would I trade 3.5 years of him (3 of which are arb years) for Benge alone? Yes. As you know, Benge hasn't been a pro for even a year yet, and he's lighting up A+. Hits for power, speed, average, draws a lot of walks, cannon of an arm, good not great glove work, and a platoon advantage most days being a lefty. He's a top 60 prospect for me. Throw in Luis Torrens who not only jettisons Rortvedt off the roster, but also takes on a larger role next year when Jansen is a FA. All projection systems see Torrens as at least a 90 wRC+ for the remainder of the year. A good defender with an approximate league average bat at C for the next year and a half is what I go to bed dreaming of. I think swapping Pep for Boyle or Seymour is a downgrade, but swapping Rort for Torrens is a big enough upgrade, that the Rays are actually better this year for this move, and they get a top 60 prospect on top of it. I would do cartwheels if this trade came to fruition.
I guess this discussion no longer matters with the Thaiss acquisition, so I'll just say that I think Pep has turned the corner and is pitching a lot better right now than he did to start the season when he was very HR prone. If he continues to pitch the way he has of late, all the numbers you cited will look a lot better and his trade value will see a decent jump. SPs are very expensive on the open market, so I don't want to sell low on a good one.
Doesn't make my postseason rotation if it started today. Ras, Littell, Bullpen day.
Playoffs!!!! You’re talking playoffs!!?!? Playoffs!!???…….. In all seriousness, I don’t know who I would tab for a post-season rotation right now. It would probably be Ras (duh), Baz (limited to 2x TTO), Littell (if he’s still on the roster), and whoever is playing best among Bradley/Pep, but then comes a Pen I have no confidence in. Playoff pitching could be ugly with that group. Let’s hope the Rays get a good and healthy McClanny back in July and promote Boyle and Wags at some point (even if in Boyle’s case it’s just to the Pen this year).
Do you see Pepiot's value as low right now? I actually see it as high/acceptable. Exhausted pre-arb, mid rotation arm. Not sure what I'd pay for that, but it wouldn't be 2 prospects in the 80-120 range.
I think Pep is fairly valued right now considering his history and how he has pitched so far this year. I’m hanging my hopes on an improved trade value on the fact he is pitching so much better recently. He was always my #5 pitcher out of McClanny, Ras, Baz, Bradley and Pep, and since I think Boyle and Seymour are both ready for the Show, I would trade Pep if he gets to a $30-40MM valuation. The player I see as crazy undervalued right now is Benge, so you may be right that it’s a fair trade now.
As to your point if they are selling at the deadline, I think Pep would be moved anyways if they are selling at the deadline. And if we are selling at the deadline, I'd have to believe that Jansen would be the most obvious trade candidate that we have. Torrens would take over at starter, and we would use the rest of the season to determine if he is our starter heading into 2026. This 6 game streak, going from 4th in the division to 2nd, and a game back in the WC has been a lot of fun.
If the Rays choose to sell at the deadline, then I would want them to focus their returns on guys with 5 years or more of control, which would exclude Torrens. I'd feel that way even if Jansen is traded.
Why is that? You over the buy low candidates? I guess I'm in the other tier. Triumphant return to the Trop. If someone can't contribute next year, he is part of a deal, not THE return.
This team only goes as far as B.Lowe carries it. When he’s slumping, they suck. So what happens when he’s gone, along with Diaz, Jansen, Fairbanks, Littell, maybe HSK, and others? Will the Rays go out and spend in free agency? I doubt it. They will have a lot of guys in Durham by year end who are tabbed as “the future”. Plus, with 2027 looking like a lockout year to impose a salary cap on the sport (and hopefully a salary floor and more shared revenue), Rays should focus on guys with lots of control.