Royals & Rays
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Royals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Palacios | 28 | Majors | OF | Medium | 5 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 12.3 | |
| Pete Fairbanks | 31 | Majors | RP | Medium | 2 | 19.6 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.7 |
Total Value:
19.20
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 21 | Minors | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 9.8 | ||
| Austin Charles | 20 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.1 | ||
| Yandel Ricardo | 17 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 9.8 |
Total Value:
19.80
Comments
13
I see Morel in LF, Lowe in RF, Caballero as super utility playing IF and OF, and Simpson as a midseason callup. No room for Palacios. In a perfect world, the Rays would shed some salary so they could offer Bregman a short term deal and move Caminero to SS for the year. That's why I'm moving Fairbanks.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Whoa…. What??? This trade is predicated on signing Bregman? Damn man, when you go big, you go big!!! As for the trade, I think Palacios will get plenty of playing time because (1) he’s a pretty good defender, (2) he’s a lefty bat, and (3) his bat is loads better than Cabby’s, regardless of split. I would love to see the Rays move Caballero instead. Somehow he was credited for being an ok defender at SS, while my eye test told me he was abysmal (and of course the Rays hardly played him at SS once Walls returned, even without a bat). Anyway, I don’t want to trade Palacios. As for the return, I guess it kinda works but it wouldn’t be my preference. Jensen would probably slot behind Keegan in the catching order, but he’s a good, solid catching prospect so he works. I’d rather have Mitchell (obviously) or Ramon Ramirez personally. Ricardo is young, so he works. I don’t know what Charles brings to the table though. A utility player at best, which the Rays have plenty of in the system. I’d rather see a pitcher or two replace him in the trade.
I think the Rays are going for the playoffs. Littell, Yandy, Fairbanks and BLowe are still here. How many top 100 prospects do they have going into their 2nd and 3rd year in the show? Caminero, Mead, Aranda, Baz, Bradley, Morel, Pepiot. A couple of those guys will step up big. We have a healthy 6 man rotation, and all of them are capable of being all stars. Fairbanks, Uceta, Montgomery, Bigge, Kelly, Cleavinger is about the deepest our pen has ever been. Simpson will have a big impact at some point this season in my opinion. He won a D1 batting title and a minor league batting title and walks more than Ks...his bat is legit. If he's stuck in LF, so be it, we need a LF. The prospect guys said Meadows and Lowe were plus CFers, so until I see Simpson fail in CF, I consider him a CF. This team's biggest upgrade would be replacing Walls. Walls to Bregman is a 5 win swing in my view. The Yankees have no depth, and won't suffer 0 injuries for the 2nd straight year. The Orioles refuse to spend any money, even with a 100 win team with no long term contracts. The division is ours if 2 of our 7 former top 100 prospects take the next step, our staff stays healthy, and we find a better solution at SS. My solution is for 1 year, we move Caminero there and offer Bregman a 3 year deal with 2 opt outs. If we're .500 at the deadline, move Bregman, Lowe, Fairbanks and Yandy. Promote Simpson and Carson, and play for 2026.
The Rays never tank, so I don't think you can assume they're going for it by their refusal to trade Littell, Yandy, Fairbanks and B.Lowe (at least not yet). I do agree with you that the Rays pitching will be pretty good next year, whether or not they keep or trade Littell. The offense though... The Rays just have too many weak bats. Adding Bregman would help in that regard, but the dropoff from Walls to Caminero at SS would be pretty big too. I see the Rays as a 75-85 win team right now. If they add Bregman and keep everyone else, I'd probably bump that up to 80-90. Of course, that was my expectation last year and they finished 80-82. There's also the little matter of Bregman's contract, which would probably cost $25MM annually on a small deal and with Franco's contract not fully off the books yet, I don't think the Rays will take the risk of allocating $50MM to two players in 2026.
I think the Rays have a very strong offense in 2025. BLowe, Yandy, Morel, Aranda, JLowe, and Caminero I expect to all be in the 120 wRC+ or better region. I think Eloy Jiminez and Danny Jansen become the best immediate DH and C additions we've ever had. I think the eventual platoon of Simpson/DeLuca in CF could is a well above average bat, and playing in a tiny park, I think OF defense will be unimportant compared to previous years. All told, 8 out of 9 positions I expect excellent offensive production, and that's before we add Bregman. Yandy, BLowe, Bregman, JLowe, Caminero, Morel, Eloy/Aranda, Jansen, Simpson has a chance to be the best offensive unit we have ever had, and we've got some big dogs in AAA ready to help when the time comes. Walls is a great defensive utility option. Palacios or Caballero gets traded, and Coco Montes takes their place. I'm really excited for the 2025 season, as we have the 2nd best team in the AL behind the O's. I'm surprised they kept the expensive guys, because they are all internally replaceable without the Rays being accused of tanking. There's not even room for Mead, and they gave Waguespack a 2 year $3M deal to pitch in AAA. This team is loaded.
I love talking baseball with you. Wish you’d come back to DRB. You’re the ying to my yang. Ok, as for the offense, I’m willing to grant you the following: (1) B.Lowe, Yandy, and Caminero might equal last year’s production from B.Lowe, Yandy and Paredes/Caminero, (2) Morel plays better and comes close to equaling what the Rays got from Aroz (109 wRC+), but I think Morel is in the twilight of his career (he is better than he looked last year with the Rays but worse than I thought pre-trade), and (3) Rays get better offense from J.Lowe and the DH and catcher positions. On the other hand, the Rays are likely going to play Walls and Cabby a lot for their defense, regardless of their bats, Rort may be more 2nd half Rort than 1st half Rort, and we may not love the production we get from the youngsters (including Aranda, who I’m high on). Taken together, I think the offense might be better next year but I’m not expecting anything like you are.
I like talking baseball with you too. After Walls pulled his fist up, "fight fight fight" MAGA bullshit, I said fuck that guy, and they put me on a list over at DRB where when I post, it has to be read by a moderator before it shows up. About half the posts never showed up, and those that did, usually hours later. Hard to carry on a conversation when you post at 8 PM and it shows up buried in the comments at 8 AM. Eventually, you just stop posting. I told them to either remove the leash, or just ban me. they banned me. Their loss.
Glad to have you here, Shaq.
Thanks John! Love this site you've created. The day that a pay option was offered, I signed up for it. Happy and proud to be a member here, and it has become a valuable research tool.
I would love to upgrade Rort, as he thinks he's atrocious. Just a limp dick bat with defense that's good, but you better be fucking Kiermaier in the field if you're going to have a 50 wRC+ bat, and I think that's Rort's true talent level. The problem is, his backup is some goof who wears magnets on his neck to improve blood flow. Jesus Christ, that's definitely a Dr Joe Rogan listener if there ever was one. But he did his own research, so what are you gonna do. I did a little research too, and guess who STEAMER projects as the most MLB ready batter in the minors: Tre Morgan. He hasn't even reached AAA. He's my 2nd best Rays prospect behind Carson Williams, and I think Yandy's days are numbered, as we have a half dozen rookies/2nd year guys in AAA and MLB who are stuck at 1st base. Mead, Seymour, Morgan, Isaac, Aranda, and our top trade target in the Springs deal was yet another AA 1st baseman. We seem to be collecting high minors 1st baseman. I expect a Mead trade in Spring Training. Call it a hunch, but I think Kevin Buttermaker gets this ragtag group of Bad News Rays off to a 40-20 start. With a ton of home games to start the year, we have the opportunity to take an early lead in the division. I actually think our situation gives us an advantage for that reason: we have the only schedule that is tailor made for us. I keep coming back to Bregman becoming a Ray, because if you are going to sign a short deal hoping to rebound a little, you do it in a division with short fences and bad pitching. Toronto, Baltimore, and Boston have bad pitching, and Yankee stadium has the shortest RF fence, Fenway has the shortest LF fence, and Tampa has the shortest overall fences by a lot. Go hit 45 HR for the Rays and sign that mega contract next year.
Just went over to DRB and saw you're voting again. Brailer is the next player I would vote for. A year ago, Baseball America said this about Xavier Isaac "Isaac was billed for his plus power and that thus far has held true as his 90th percentile exit velocity of 105 mph is impressive with a 112 mph". All that is true of Brailer as well. 111 max EV as a 16 year old, then 112 as a 17 year old. 90th percentile exit velos as well, same a Isaac, but Brailer averaged 106 MPH, not 105 like Isaac. Good contact rates, excellent BB rates. Sprays the ball all over the field (33% pull, 40% oppo). All that with lingering shoulder issues that kept him out most of the year. If he's healthy, he hits it as hard as Xavier Isaac. I'm excited to see Isaac in AA again, as I think he will tear the cover off the ball, but I'm just as excited to see Brailer healthy and in A ball. I think we have a poor man's Yordan Alvarez in the making.
Yes, I’m high on Brailer too, though his injury history has me concerned for his long term future. I also like A.Smith, Curet, Hopkins, and GGH. I voted for Simpson this round. Figured you’d appreciate that.
LOL, I don't think I got to vote for anyone other than Simpson last year. I think I had him at 8, and he finished at 20 I think. Yeah, I think any of Simpson, Brailer, or Aiden Smith are the right choice here. This system is so insanely deep. Probably could come up with 15 players in our system than would be most team's 5th best prospect. This is a long read, but is worth it. This fella has me super hyped about 5th rounder Trevor Harrison. It's excellent analysis that DRB used to pump out, but since they were demonitized, it's just stale and bland reposts of other people's work. Anyways, amazing deep dive of Trevor Harrison. https://www.reddit.com/r/tampabayrays/comments/1hf2y4k/trevor_harrison_the_next_big_riser_in_the_rays/