Robert's surplus value has declined quite a bit. If he were a free agent right now, think about what kind of deal he would get. Consider that he's coming off a down year where he was replacement-level overall, 16% below average at the plate, struck out over 33% of the time, and played poor defense. Despite that, our model shows that he'd be worth $61.7M over three years, or a bit over $20M AAV. Balance that against his current contract, which, assuming the options are picked up, pays him $55M over those three years. Hence the low surplus.

Keep in mind also that a large number of teams will likely be tightening their wallets this offseason, due to the loss of revenue caused by the collapse of the RSN TV deals. With smaller budgets, those front offices are going to be very careful about how they spend their money. If they're going to pay over $20M AAV for a player over three potential years, they'll want to be certain they get their money's worth -- and Robert certainly was not worth that in 2024. Yes, there's plenty of upside there, as his 2023 showed, and he's only 27. But it's a big gamble, which means in a trade scenario they're not going to give up a whole lot for taking on that risk.