John, even if you allow for some deterioration on Taillon's part, I'm not sure how you can square these numbers. Per Baseball Reference, Tailon's WAR stands at 1.1 vs. Montgomery at -1.3. It gets even stranger if you add in Jon Gray, whose WAR is .6 and has an BTV of .2. I tried to include him on a 3-way deal but I would have had to override the system, which is not what I am trying to do here. If Gray, who makes 14 million in 25, is in positive numbers, one would have to conclude that Taillon, whose WAR is twice as high, and whose salary is only higher by 3 million in 25, would have to be in positive numbers, too, for 25. Which brings us to 26. Montgomery has completely fallen off the rails in 24, but still shows an AFV of 15.3. Again, if Taillon were to fall off the rails next year, which is all guesswork and certainly not based on the results of his work this year, why wouldn't he get the same benefit as Montgomery? If you look at Taillon, like Gray for 25, and Montgomery for 26, his BTV would still be positive, not -15. Maybe I'm missing something here. I am not challenging the fairness of the system. Just trying to understand how it works. I think if Taillon were a free agent at the end of this year, he could reasonably command a contract for 2-3 years at 12-15 million per annum, similar to what Lopez got from the Braves, or Stephenson from the Angels, last offseason, which is why I keep saying that he has pitched up to his contract. Just trying to understand the numbers.

I just don't see the Cubs looking for another lefty with Steele, Imanaga, and Wicks being the three lefties they'd have for the rotation when Wicks is healthy.

Thanks, John, and I really appreciate the breakdown on the 3 pitchers. I grew up in the dinosaur age of baseball statistics, but I think E.R.A. is still meaningful, especially for pitchers who pitch to contact, like Taillon. I also go by what I see on the mound, which is not science. When Taillon was getting hit hard the first half of 2023, he looked pretty good to my eyes. Made me wonder if he was tipping his pitches. Since the All-Star game last year, he has been a solid 3-4 starter, even though he's gone through a rough period of late. I also think he will age pretty well. Big frame but doesn't overthrow the ball, rely on an overpowering fastball, etc. Fangraphs puts heavy emphasis on FIP, and rightfully so, imo. Any pitcher who can strike out a lot of people and not give up many walks is gonna be successful. Not sure that averaging balls in play tells us anymore about a pitcher. In the end, it's a results driven game, no matter how one chooses to break it down. We go to the ballpark (or tv set) hoping to see our pitcher throw a no-hitter, not just toss a 100mph fastball with a great spin rate. Tom Glavine won 305 games with an average FIP. Whitey Ford wasn't overpowering. For the record, I really wanted the Cubs to sign Jon Gray. But I think Taillon has out pitched him the last two seasons. However, I agree that Gray is less of a liability at 14 million for 25, than Taillon at 34 for the next two years.