Mariners & Orioles & Pirates
Submitted by: kurteger
Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 27 | Majors | SP | Low | 5 | 105.6 | 49.6 | 56.1 | 44.8 | 56.1 | 67.3 | |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 27 | Majors | 3B | Low | 7 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 16.8 | 21 | 25.2 | |
| Bryan Reynolds | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 7 | 121.5 | 98 | 23.5 | 18.8 | 23.5 | 28.2 | |
| Jared Jones | 22 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 14.5 | ||
| Tyler Wells | 29 | Majors | SP | LRP | High | 3 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Dauri Moreta | 28 | Majors | RP | High | 6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
Total Value:
120.80
Orioles
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 31 | Majors | SP | Low | 5 | 138.7 | 116 | 22.7 | 18.2 | 22.7 | 27.3 | |
| Logan Gilbert | 27 | Majors | SP | Low | 4 | 108.1 | 42.1 | 65.9 | 52.7 | 65.9 | 79.1 | |
| Mitch Keller | 28 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 47.6 | 15 | 32.6 | 26.1 | 32.6 | 39.1 | |
| Cash | 5 |
Total Value:
126.2
Pirates
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Moore | 31 | Majors | UTIL | OF | High | 2 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 23 | Majors | SP | 5 | 106.3 | 51.6 | 54.7 | 43.8 | 54.7 | 65.7 | ||
| Ramon Urias | 31 | Majors | UTIL | SS | Medium | 3 | 17.7 | 10 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 9.2 |
| Luis Urias | 27 | Majors | 3B | SS | Low | 2 | 13.2 | 11.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Anthony Santander | 29 | Majors | OF | DH | Medium | 1 | 17.1 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 |
| Cole Young | 20 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 24.3 | 29.2 |
Total Value:
95.00
Comments
5Mariners clear about $12M in available spending, even after sending $5M cash to the Orioles, they get a long-term 3B and LF, they then can turn around and add Blake Snell with their current available payroll + the additional $12M they just freed up with this trade. This allows the Mariners to essentially swap Castillo and Gilbert for Snell and Bradish, while upgrading their 6th and 7th starters to Wells and Jones, pushing Hancock to 8th. By replacing Urias with a full-time 3B (Hayes), they are able to move Rojas to the bench and include Moore in this trade, allowing the M's to also add Bliss or Taylor from Tacoma to get a RH option off the bench depending on what they see in the Spring. Moreta adds more length to the bullpen, where Wells can join Voth as a swing arm who can spot start. Cole Young is an even better prospect than he was on draft day, but with Hayes locking up 3B for the rest of the decade, the Mariners have less room to add some of their other top prospects, namely Bliss, Arroyo, Peete, and maybe best of all Colt Emerson. Additionally, we are yet to see the debuts of Felnin Celesten or Dawel Joseph.
Why would the pirates give up their 2 best position players for this?
The Orioles have to eat about $12-13M in the first year of this deal, but this makes too much sense for them. They are coming off a 100 win season and their biggest issue was in the rotation. With this trade they are adding a #1 in Castillo to pair with Burnes, as well as two #2 starters in Gilbert and Keller, when Dean Kremer is your #5 starter and you have the luxury of throwing John Means and Cole Irvin in the bullpen to be swingmen in case there is an injury with Cade Povich sitting in AAA in case you need him as your #8 starter, then things are going good for the Orioles. The only players they lose in this deal is Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez from the pitching side, a guy targeted for the backend of the bullpen or AAA (Tyle Wells), a blocked infielder (R. Urias), and an outfielder who is one year from reaching free agency and blocking Kjerstad, Cowser, Stowers, and McKenna. While some might argue about whether they are ready, the next wave of outfielders (Beavers, Fabian, and Bradfield) will be pushing for roster spots soon and the Orioles do not want to have to wait until next offseason to replace Santander and O'Hearn, while only being a year away from having to do it all over again with Mullins and Hays. By freeing up RF, so they can give their four younger and much better defenders a chance to audition for a long-term role in the outfield, they can start to get an idea of what the team might look like and need in 2025 and beyond. Santander is easily the worst fielder of the current three in Baltimore, while being essential a one dimensional player, he is absolutely not a candidate for a qualifying offer at his production level and age. With Holliday, Henderson, and Westburg starting around the infield, Norby, Mateo, and Maton all waiting on the bench or in AAA, Ramon Urias is more of a luxury than a need, especially since he's not really a guy capable of playing SS regularly. This trade literally makes the Orioles the favorite in the AL East because the Rays have traded valuable pieces, along with losing Franco, should make them a wild card team at best. The Yankees are overrated with stars that are forced to carry the water for the rest of a weak team despite the fact that Stanton can't stay healthy, Soto is a mess defensively, Judge is big and older, meaning he's due for some decline either in production or health. LeMahieu, Torres, and Rizzo have been inconsistent, while Verdugo has consistently been getting worse over the last 4-5 years and was only able to be better than replacement level in 2023 due to him regaining his defensive ability which had disappeared the previous two years in a massive way. Volpe and Wells round out the lineup with youth, volatility, and question marks. This is the time the Orioles need to go for it and there is no better way than building the best rotation in baseball, a very good bullpen, and a young core of position players who can play good defense. Based on rosterresource power rankings, this trade would give the Orioles the 10th (Castillo), 11th (Burnes), 20th (Keller), 23rd (Gilbert), and 51st (Kremer) ranked starters in all of baseball.
Your reasoning is fascinating but I’m gonna say this 15 player deal doesn’t happen
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
The Pirates are not close to competing while Hayes and Reynolds who have become reliable regulars, but have fallen short of expectations that the Pirates had when offering their current contracts. They were hoping to get bargain priced stars, not above-average regulars. With too many starters in their farm system, Pittsburgh is going to need to start converting some to the bullpen and Moreta simply gives them an extra spot to do that while strengthening the rest of their lineup. Santander and the older Urias should approximate the expected production at 3B and corner outfield, vacated by the two position players headed to Seattle. The younger Urias will help solidify 2B, giving more time for Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero to figure things out in AAA for another year or until they are ready to force themselves onto the roster. Dylan Moore becomes a supersub who can also offer a more reliable platoon with Palacios in RF or could give starters a blow at every position except catcher and pitcher. At the very least Moore is a clear upgrade over Bae off the bench. While adding Cole Young to become the future 2B alongside Peguero at SS with Oneil Cruz probably best left to RF with his big arm and athletic ability, the big win for the Pirates besides getting better for 2024 and beyond is turning a potential contract issue in Keller (2 years remaining) into 6 years of the top RH pitching prospect in the majors last season, who is projected to have nearly the same value this year as the guy he's replacing in the rotation. With Paul Skenes probably making his debut in 2024 at some point, it would give them two of the most electric arms to come out of the minors in quite a while. The reality is that the Pirates only signed the extension with Reynolds to quiet the critics, but the money was designed for him to be traded before 2025 either way. The freed up money allows the Pirates to start putting together extensions for younger players in hopes they can nab a perennial All-Star on the cheap. Hayes looks like a change of scenery case, while his defense is exceptional and will fit in with a history of great defensive 3B in Seattle, his offense is more okay than great. This trade takes them off the hook for future salary obligations, while getting something in return before potential injuries or regression tank any remaining value, something that would be far more difficult to overcome at the Pirates spending level. As Cole Young is a Pittsburgh native along with Bednar, it would make sense for them to extend both players who would enjoy playing in the city they grew up. Young was even pictured at 10 years old taking a photo with Clint Hurdle back in 2014, while competing in and winning nationally the MLB Pitch, Hit, and Run for 9-and-10 year olds. A good example they could use prior to the 2025 season for Young would be the Colt Keith contract that the Tigers just gave to a similarly rated player. While they could offer Bednar a $40-45M/5 year deal, giving the fans a more long-term player to root for on the team. It also makes more sense moving on from Reynolds this year while McCutchen is still on the team, than waiting until he retires (seems he'll keep adding on 1-year deals like Wakefield until he's ready to retire a Pirate) and the fans lose multiple fan favorites. Signing Young to an extension prior to his debut next season would also help the PR department, while they could also try and extend Rodriguez during spring training and Skenes before he debuts in 2024. The Pirates lose about 9.2 projected fWAR in this trade between Keller, Reynolds, Hayes, Jones, and Moreta, while they get back around 9.5 projected fWAR when adjusting the playing time of the Urias brothers and Moore to more full-time roles, while also adding a local top prospect and creating anywhere from $15-17M after Santander walks to add more talent in 2025 and beyond, not including what they could save trading any of the Urias brothers and Moore, should they be inclined at the deadline or after the season.