Braves & Brewers
Submitted by: JW2024
Braves
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames | 28 | Majors | SS | Medium | 1 | 23.5 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 13.3 | |
| Christian Yelich | 32 | Majors | OF | Low | 5 | 95.7 | 136.5 | -40.8 | -48.9 | -40.8 | -32.6 | |
| Round A Comp Balance Pick | 0 | Minors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3.2 | 4 | 4.8 | ||
| Round B Comp Balance Pick | 0 | Minors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.4 | ||
| Yophery Rodriguez | 0 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6.4 | 8 | 9.6 |
Total Value:
-15.70
Brewers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Fletcher | 31 | Majors | UTIL | SS | Very low | 2 | 0 | 14 | -14 | -14 | -14 | -11.2 |
Total Value:
-14
Comments
6Braves fan here. I wouldn't want that Yelich contract. The numbers might balance on this site, but not in real life. Fletcher is slated for backup IF, at best. Replacing him with Adames, pushes Arcia to backup role. Where does Yelich play? Kelenic is already in LF and Ozuna at DH. There's nowhere obvious to put $136M. Easy "no" on this one.
A very easy no from Milwaukee.
Brewers move the contract(s). If they don't care about the money then they won't be interested. The Braves take on Yelich as insurance for Kelenic/Harris and have 3guys to rotate over LF/CF. If Yelich rebounds, the Braves might flip him with some cash (against future cost) at the deadline for help. The rest, the picks and Rodriguez, hedge against the fact that this deal would put the Braves over the third tier luxury and would cost them a pick plus cash. Again, the Brewers have to want to cut payroll, short and long term. Assuming they do, the Braves get 2 picks and a high international signee, a starting shortstop with Arcia going to Utility and a former MVP who was still 3 WAR last year, if overpaid. The Braves then have the option of offering Adames a QO or letting him walk after the season and maybe flipping Yelich (or Kelenic) for more young talent to rebuild the farm on the fly. Or, you keep Yelich and let Ozuna walk after the season setting up a platoon through DH for the 3 OF not named Acuna.
Yelich as "insurance" is expensive. "Money Mike" is a top 5 centerfielder and not a guy I'd rotate out. When did Yelich last player CF anyways? Kelenic/Yelich platoon doesn't appeal to me. Let's let Kelenic play, hit 9th and see what he can do in his first season with ATL. Over the past three years, the most ML games he's been in over a season is 105. I'm thinking "let it eat" with Kelenic. If it's hobbling the team, upgrade at the deadline. When Kelenic plays what does Yelich do? Take AB's from Ozuna? The Milwaukee Brewers made a huge financial commitment to Christian Yelich. He'll be more attractive in a trade if he can again deliver at a 2023-like level, which is something he hasn't done since he signed this monster contract. They're more motivated to trade away Adames and were with Burnes because of expiring contracts. "Flipping Yelich .. for more young talent to rebuild the farm" is silly talk because Yelich's weighed down by his contract that there's not going to be any positive return on him any time soon. As examples, look at how much the Mets had to pay in order to get guys back for Scherzer and Verlander.
I think long term. Yelich for 2024 IS an expensive luxury. He does have the ability to play all three of spots if needed so if any of Kelenic, Harris or Acuna end up on the DL for any time, he's plug and play there. He's also capable of hitting at DH, taking some PA away from Ozuna if/when needed. But the trade is less about 2024 than 2025 and beyond. In 2025, if all goes well for K, H and A in the OF then Yelich can DH with Atlanta letting Ozuna walk, limiting the financial exposure of Yelich's contract especially when you back out the Fletcher dollars. As I said, one of the worst case scenarios is that the Braves package some cash with him to trade him elsewhere or IN EFFECT paying cash for 2 picks and a high international ml signee. There is value in the "potential" for a Yelich resurgence as he gets further from injury. But the real value for the Braves is Adames (who's an upgrade over Arcia even if Arcia continues to produce at 23 levels, and can be tendered a QO if deserving) and the 2 picks and the young international signee. People get confused about OVERALL money. If a team spends $200M on payroll, then spends another $50M on draft and international talent, most don't see that as a $250M expense. If a team spends $250M on payroll and $0 on talent acquisition, most fans don't see that either. People understand the NFL draft where a team will trade a player for picks or trade picks to move up. This trade is the baseball version of that. The Braves are taking on payroll from another team in exchange for whatever talent the contract brings PLUS the picks and developmental talent that comes along with it.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I agree. I don't think Christian Yelich could get paid the remainder of his contract if he were a FA now. The other players and picks don't make up enough of the difference. Adames displaces Arcia, who I am bullish on for 2024, and I too question where Yelich would play. If he's able to improve, as he's done since the shortened season, then maybe the Braves will consider trading for him, after the 2024 has ended. This trade proposal is unappealing to me because I can't figure out a way that it makes any logical sense for either team. Care to share some of your thoughts, JW2024?