Guardians & Brewers
Submitted by: mrvics hat
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Black | 23 | Minors | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 14.6 | 17.5 | ||
| Robert Gasser | 24 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 12.6 | ||
| Dylan O'Rae | 19 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | ||
| Brock Wilken | 21 | Minors | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.6 |
Total Value:
36.2
Brewers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Arias | 23 | Majors | SS | 6 | 17.1 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 11 | ||
| Logan T. Allen | 25 | Majors | SP | 6 | 60.7 | 32.2 | 28.4 | 22.7 | 28.4 | 34.1 |
Total Value:
37.60
Comments
7Based on a posted trade for Logan Allen (the good one, not the bad one). Not really a counter offer since the only commonality is Allen. It’s just what I would ask from Milwaukee. It’s a high price to pay, but very good MLB controllable pitching is expensive. I’m adding in Arias to balance the books. Arias can play any position in 2024, almost literally, and would replace Adames at SS in 2025, or Adames can now be traded for something. For Cleveland the return is not the best fit position wise, but Black can potentially play outfield or likelier 2B (I know they have a million of these). His bat plays better than what they currently have, even Brito. Wilken is mostly a DH, but can take reps at 3B and 1B. Provides much needed power. Gasser gives SP depth and O’Rae is a lottery ticket, with contact tools the organization seems to like (or used to anyway).
The Brewers refuse. Arias has to prove he can hit big league pitching. Milwaukee has Turang to replace Adames. Allen projects to be a BOR type pitcher, the same as Gasser. Milwaukee has great expectations for both Black and Wilken.
The Brewers would jump all over this immediately as they should, but it would never be offered. Why would Cleveland deal such a good, young SP that has experienced ML success and their most powerful bat who also happens to play GG caliber defense? And for what...2 MIFers, a lesser SP and a low level 3B? This deal makes no sense for Cleveland at all. At worst, Arias is Willy Adames. That's his floor, but I think he's going to hit better than Adames in a couple short years or less.
I don't think Milwaukee wants any part of this. I see Black and Wilkens easily equal to Arias. Black hit .310/.428/.942 OPS at AAA. Wilken is a #1 draft choice just getting started. I think Allen's ceiling is a #4 or #5 and I think the Brewers see Gasser about the same.
You’re not wrong. Again, my basis for this trade was what I would want for Allen (as the main piece). The upside for Milwaukee is that Allen has proof of success at the MLB level, whereas the guys coming to Cleveland are still just prospects, good prospects, but nothing proven. If I were a Brewer’s fan I wouldn’t like it either. Thanks for commenting.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I’m not sure if you’re just trying to sell this trade. I know you like Arias, and maybe I shouldn’t care, but you are seeing something completely different than what I am seeing. Last year his BB/K ratio was 28/113 with an OPS of .628. His Winter Ball ratio is 3/26, .543. He can’t hit. I really respect your comments, and like the discussion, but your evaluation of Arias is perplexing. I was hoping to sneak this trade past the Milwaukee guys, but their responses are spot on.
Why would I be trying to sell this trade? There's no way in hell that I'd make it. This comes down to your lack of seeing the whole picture, but that's ok as we all have our opinions. You're trying to make an assessment based on circumstantial and developmental numbers and ignoring what is painfully obvious. What isn't opinion is that Arias is our starting SS for the 24 season. I showed you his numbers against RHP and explained to you that his struggles against LHP look like an anomaly. He has never had platoon split issues before. My evaluation of Arias is "perplexing" you say? It's the same "evaluation" that the organization holds. No, their responses are inaccurate and they would jump all over the opportunity to replace Adames with a kid whose floor is Adames. If they think Turang is a SS then that's all I need to know that they don't know what they're talking about. He's severely inferior to Arias at SS. We haven't even discussed the absolute ridiculous idea of dealing Allen for this mess. It's simply not logical, not realistic and has no chance of happening because Cleveland would never do it.