Nationals & Guardians & Braves
Submitted by: SchmitzM17
Nationals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach | 0 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.2 |
Total Value:
5.1
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Thomas | 28 | Majors | OF | Medium | 2 | 22 | 17.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | |
| Andry Lara | 20 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
Total Value:
6.1
Braves
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Straw | 29 | Majors | CF | Low | 3 | 9.2 | 20.5 | -11.2 | -13.5 | -11.2 | -9 | |
| Angel Martinez | 21 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.6 | ||
| Welbyn Francisca | 0 | Minors | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.7 |
Total Value:
6.60
Comments
23
There is no way Cleveland would do this one! They are way too high on Francisca to put him in a deal like this
Martinez has been getting reps in CF and his bat looks like it will play well. Francisca is climbing up prospects lists quickly and his value should continue to rise. I don't see Cleveland dealing those 2 for 2 yrs of Lane Thomas. Cleveland will not let Straw's negative value undermine the value of another player. Straw's contract isn't expensive and they can just cut him loose with no worries.
Not sure why you're so sure the Guards won't let Straw's negative undermine other players. Straw is the 7th most expensive guy on their current roster and only gets more expensive each year in his contract after this. In Guards terms, I would consider him expensive. Turning a guy who hits an empty .230 into a guy who hits .260 with 20+ HR power for about the same salary seems well worth surrendering one guy who clocks in at 4th on the current MIF pecking order (behind Arias, Rocchio, and Brito, with the latter being a very similar player) and another guy who is a promising 17 year old but far from a sure thing (see Gabriel Rodriguez, George Valera, Aaron Bracho, Junior Sanquintin). If the whole farm system is untouchable, then we'll never see a trade lol!
Cleveland doesn't believe Straw is a negative 11 value type of player since he is actually still a positive bWAR on both offense and defense even with those numbers... They would cut him before they would include him in a deal like this...
I think CLEFO likely also recognizes Straw regressed majorly on defense last year. My understanding of the -11 valuation is that a player can have a positive bWAR and be negative surplus value if their contract is large enough. I think that applies well to Straw and I think the trade for Florial (a potential AAAA guy) shows you how confident they are in Straw earning his salary this year. I hope I’m wrong about Straw but I don’t think my perception of CLEFO’s likely view is as off base as you seem to think.
Actually look at the numbers for Straw's numbers and his film... He actually didn't lose anything on defense, he just didn't have the opportunities that he did in 22... He literally did everything the same outside of making big plays, but the pitching actually prevented him from having the big plays... He's not at negative 11 in the FOs mind plus he's not going to be the main guy anymore, but will get in just about everyday...
I'm seeing 60 fewer attempts last year per baseball savant (430 vs. 370). To me that doesn't justify baseball reference rtot going from the teens down to 2. I would be happy to hear any context I'm missing though, genuinely, I want Straw to be as valuable a player for CLE as possible.
I don't remember where the link is, but someone actually went and looked at those numbers and they looked at the difference and they concluded Straw didn't lose a step and was playing the same level of defense, the problem was the amount of the extremely hard catches were drastically lower plus he didn't make one that he did the year before... So essentially in a sense between a missed catch and little opportunities, his value went down defensively even know everything else was exactly the same. His value defensively is still there and I actually firmly believe in a reduced role, he will perform better since he will mostly face lefties, who his numbers are way better against. Plus he will end up closing out games and/or being a pinch runner a lot... Don't be surprised to see the bench something like Straw, Laureano, Fry and Freeman... Freeman will get OF experience and Straw can play SS as well...
I was in on Thomas last year, but he’s soured for me. K% up BB% down, high BABIP, way better home than road stats. Seems like he will regress in 2024. He is better than what Cleveland has in the OF and I would love to be rid of Straw, but the inclusion of Francisca is too much. I’m never for trading just drafted young guys. It’s just too risky; give them a couple of years to see what you have first, something they hopefully have learned from the Caminero trade (heist, steal, rip-off). I’m ok moving Martinez, but overall a no for me.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
That’s a nice opinion, this is mine.
Francisca is already getting some rankings in the Guardians top 10 list on some prospect rankings and he's not even the best players in Cleveland's Dominican team... Don't be surprised if he's well over 20 if he has a strong 24...
I hope you're right! From my perspective, he's got 4-5 more proven players with similar ceilings ahead of him. He's not necessarily expendable but for the chance to turn Straw to Thomas (plus price savings, not giving up untouchable prospect), I think I could see Cleveland pulling the trigger on this one.
I'm always curious to learn about what people are considering when they construct these trade proposals. I'd like to know more about how you see this trade. I'm a Braves fan and I think this looks bad for them. I'd like to think Spencer Schwellenbach's going to be a Major Leaguer for ATL. The team has been successful at further developing pitchers drafted from the college ranks and while they've traded away a slew of other pitchers, they kept him. He had TJ and there's not that much public data, 13 pitches on Statcast, so maybe there's a clearer projection coming. I'm disallusioned on shiny prospects but I think this guy has a good chance akin to how AJ Smith-Shawver's progressed since this time last year. I was hyped for Myles Straw a couple of seasons ago but he's had no power in his swing and for the Braves he's just an expensive as a OF reserve/AAA guy. Is the idea of this trade that the Braves are leveraging their financial strength by buying out his bad contract in order to pick up two stud prospects? If so, what's the big sell?
Guards fan perspective so admittedly don't know the Braves needs / system too well. The main thinking was the Braves' seeming interest in taking on bad money in exchange for prospects. I have a hunch the Guards FO (and for sure many of us fans) would love to shed Straw. Getting a solid ML OF would be a real sweetener. Might be the wrong prospects in the exchange, but seems like the Braves might jump at the chance to essentially pay $7 mill / 3 yrs to get two solid additions to their farm system. I trust you though on whether the Braves would do it.
The belief that the Atlanta Braves are taking on or subsidizing player salary in exchange for prospects is misled. Before the Winter Meetings, the Braves traded for Jarred Kelenic. They also took on Marco Gonzales (9 years in the Majors) and 27 year old, Even White (not a rookie/not a prospect), later flipping them and another player. They also traded for Ray Kerr and took Matt Carpenter's salary, but Kerr's not a prospect either. It's much, much too sweet for me to call Myles Straw a solid ML OF. He's not even close to being an average hitter. If Kelenic's at least that then Straw's on their bench and that's a lot of money for a defensive outfielder/pinch runner. I see those two "solid" additions just like any shiny new prospect. Just about anything can happen on their way up to the Majors. The Braves are winning now and planning to do so for the next several seasons. Stocking the farm system with hopefulness that might arrive in a few years isn't their priority.
Apologize for the lack of clarity! Thomas was a hypothetical sweetener for the Guards in giving up prospects to offload Straw. I hear you on this but also have to think every team cares about having a decent farm system (even established and extended players can get hurt or start to struggle). Will be interested to see if the Braves make any more similar "eat bad money" deals.
Both of these two guys have a lot of upside... I doubt Cleveland would even think of doing this at all. Francisca is someone they are extremely high on and I doubt they part with him for less than like 20 value... Martinez is blocked in Cleveland but he is a fairly well liked prospect and even some scouts have said (this was before Cleveland got DeLauter) that he could end up being their best MIF bat... Problem is he is super young and Cleveland had to add him to the 40 man roster way earlier than they probably would have wanted to...
Paraphrased from my response below: turning Straw's empty .230 into Thomas's .260 with 20+ HR power seems to me well worth surrendering Martinez considering the Guards have suggested interest in playing Rocchio and Arias before him and have Brito who seems to profile as a very similar player. I'm excited about Francisca (he was my breakout prospect prediction last year) but he's far from a sure thing (see Gabriel Rodriguez, Aaron Bracho, Junior Sanquintin, to some extent Valera just in the last half decade or so). Neither guy should be top 5 in the current, very strong farm system. If the whole farm system is untouchable, then it's hard to make any moves.
They will not trade Straw for -11 value and have to give up Francisca to get rid of his contract for a player like Thomas who is a platoon guy with negative defense... He's not worth it to Cleveland... Now if you did just Martinez for Thomas and Lara, Cleveland would at least think on that, but this trade, Cleveland wouldn't want to do...
You don’t think they would and it’s fine for us to disagree on that. I think they would. I do like your counter proposal though.
Find me a deal where Cleveland used a prospect to dump a contract? They don't do that... They haven't since Antonetti took over... Find me an example, since I cannot recall one in the last decade plus... You are saying they will do something that they don't do...
Have not done is not the same as will never do. It may be some evidence but not conclusive. Their Encarnacion/Diaz and Maton/Diaz trades were somewhat similar to this.
Encarnacion plus Diaz was for Santana and Bauers... They actually went and got a prospect and brought back a veteran who saved them money... That wasn't a dump at all... Maton plus Diaz for Straw was because of the mix of wanting a CF and a roster crunch... They decided to keep Lavastida over Diaz... it was the wrong move in hindsight, but they went and got the player they felt they needed at the time... Cleveland's FO does things a certain way and 90% of all the trades they make look to build for now and the future... Who they acquire isn't predictable but the end results all have the same formula... Here in 24 or 25, they will do a major trade for a player... They also went and acquired Laureano who hit lefties well and is a plus defender. He fits the roster way better than Thomas because of that fact. If Cleveland has Laureano they will not make a move for Thomas...