Phillies & Rays
Submitted by: philliescts
Phillies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 3 | 76.2 | 42.8 | 33.5 | 26.8 | 33.5 | 40.1 |
Total Value:
33.5
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 28 | Majors | SP | Medium | 2 | 37.9 | 11.8 | 26.1 | 20.9 | 26.1 | 31.4 |
Total Value:
26.1
Comments
3I was hoping to see MP's thoughts on this since you follow the Rays closely. With the pitching situation, I know they will want MLB-level pitchers and from a financial situation, they will want to keep a modest payroll. Getting Ranger for Randy would save them a few million this year make trading Glassnow a bit more palatable and open up more possibilities for his return. They could then flip Ranger next year if he ends up making too much in arbitration (which would also mean he had a really good year). For the Phillies this would be a hit to the rotation depth, but the long term rotation is getting a bit crowded. Nola is in the rotation for the foreseeable future, they would like to resign Wheeler, Walker is under contract for 3 more years, and you have the trio of Painter, Abel, and McGarry in which 1 should be in the rotation by 2025 (when Ranger would be a FA). And logistically, you can't sustain a starting staff making 100M because one of them will inevitably get injured and you will have to fill it via FA or trade that season. Simply, I don't see the Phillies resigning Ranger when he becomes a FA, so if he can bring in an All-star OF under team control for 3 seasons, I'd do it.
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Ask and you shall receive. Truth be told, there are too many trade proposals right now for me to comment on every trade. I’m only commenting on trades with comments right now (hoping for discussion as always). Anyway, the Rays’ MO when trading their high value players is to seek a 3-5 player return with a couple AAA/MLB players who are highly likely to return real value and a couple prospects with high upside (and high risk). I cannot see them trading Aroz for 1 pitcher, particularly a pitcher with only 2 years of control (ie: 1 really bad timed TJS and they lose basically all of Aroz’s trade value for nothing). From that perspective, this trade is a nonstarter for the Rays. My last point is one of personal bias. I have watched Rays players take a series of haircuts week in and week out on BTV as third party projections come out, which are notorious for failing to properly value the Rays and their players. With that in mind, I think Aroz is more likely to be traded at the high end of his trade value range than the low end. This trade returns only about 2/3 of Aroz’s real world value in my opinion. So yeah, Rays say no to this trade.
Thanks, I agree that Arozarena would be traded at the high end of his value mostly because there is not much out there in terms of hitters (and they are the Rays). I was moreso wondering if a deal centered around Ranger would be a starting point, and it makes sense that it wouldn't be. Ranger has a history of minor injuries with a max of 155IP. One major injury and you lose one of your better trade assets for nothing since he only has 2 years of control. When they traded, I mean committed grand larceny from the Pirates franchise, Glassnow had three years of arbitration and they ended up getting an extra year with the two-year contract. Even if he didn't pitch another inning after his injury you would have gotten 250 innings of all star level pitching for Archer.