Guardians & Cubs
Submitted by: SchmitzM17
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 35 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 8.2 | 17.5 | -9.3 | -11.2 | -9.3 | -7.5 | |
| Owen Caissie | 21 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 13.4 | 16.1 | ||
| Cash | 9 |
Total Value:
13.1
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 29 | Majors | SP | Medium | 1 | 17.8 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.8 | |
| Tyler Freeman | 25 | Majors | UTIL | 2B | Medium | 5 | 14.7 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 9.5 |
Total Value:
13.5
Comments
9Guardians fan perspective. Guards get an SP to plug in this year and salary relief on that SP plus an OF prospect not too far away. Cubs get a promising young bat from the Guards MIF surplus to help balance out the trade.
Caissie struck out 37% of the time in 2023 at AA. Cleveland would owe Smyly about the same amount of money as Bieber for a lot less positive production. I am not a fan of this deal. It does not provide the MLB ready bat that the Guardians need.
Cassie has a high K rate, but nearly a .400 OBP, which means he just watches pitches a little too often when lengthening ABs. Cassie is a big LH power prospect. Those don't grow on trees. If Smyly were included in a deal, I am sure the Cubs would pay a portion in respect to the return package.
Yes! I did put that money in the proposed deal.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I like this for both sides imo.
The Cubs will likely be able to move Smyly's contract (one year) without giving away one of their best LH hitting prospects. Bieber is cheap and intriguing if he can regain form. Many of us don't believe he will (velocity and spin rate drop make him a middle rotation guy, not a TOR/Cy type). Also, the Cubs have a glut of MIF talent moving up, and the Swanson/Hoerner combo isn't going away anytime soon.
After talking to a Cubs fan friend of mine I realized Freeman doesn't make much sense. Maybe a slightly less valuable pitching prospect going back the other way instead. I would bank on a return to form this year since Bieber is just 28, is one year removed from putting up a 2.88 (with a 2.87 FIP) over 200 IP (with diminished velo), and how much time he had to rest and recover this past season + this offseason. Other than Burnes and Snell, I can't think of a pitcher with a better track record that's still available and I think the Guards would view it the same way. Long term, I would not invest in Bieber's stock but he's primed for a return to form this year.
There is no salary relief with Smyly. He is owed $10.5M in 2024 with a $2.5M buyout for 2025. He will cost at minimum $13M which is about what Bieber will make in 2024. I would much rather have Bieber who is the far superior pitcher.
That’s why I included the cash…