Rays & Cubs
Submitted by: elurz
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Shaw | 21 | Minors | SS | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12.8 | 16 | 19.1 |
Total Value:
16
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 30 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 38.1 | 25 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 15.8 |
Total Value:
13.1
Comments
30
Some prospect services will be listing Shaw as a top 30 prospect before spring. No way the Cubs trade a grade 55 prospect for one year of an expensive, unreliable rotation piece. Shaw should have been a top five pick in the draft. I highly expect our resident Rays fans to be sorely disappointed in the return for Glasnow.
The value of an inevitable compensation pick from a QO has to be factored in (separate question - is this factored into the BTV model?). I certainly don’t want the Rays to trade him, and would rather all of Fairbanks, Diaz, AND Aroz be moved to clear the payroll than Glasnow. TOR pitching is expensive, rare, and I hope the return reflects that.
This. The Rays have to fill 800+ innings of bulk role pitching in 2024, and with Eflin, Civale, Littell as their only returning healthy SP, they are left with about 400 innings to fill by the likes of Shane Baz and Taj Bradley. Doable, but shit, that's probably on paper their worst rotation since the Devil Rays days, and they have nothing simmering in AA or AAA worth a promotion in 2023. You don't have to squint too hard to see 5 WAR out of their entire starting rotation with a little regression. If Springs and Rasmussen come back heathy, and Baz and Bradley progress, Littell maintains, you can always trade Glas at the deadline. No need to cut your toes off before the race starts when you're already limping. Especially when Margot, Randy, Harold are MUCH less necessary.
The problem with banking on getting a QO pick from Glasnow is the same problem as seriously counting on Glasnow next season. If he gets hurt, he loses all value. You wouldn’t offer a QO to him if he gets injured again. A qualifying offer is not inevitable or guaranteed. I do think the Rays could get a king’s ransom for Glasnow at the trade deadline if he’s healthy and performing as expected. I suspect it will be a challenge for the Rays to net any more than one grade 50 prospect for him this offseason and I personally wouldn’t surrender a grade 55 prospect like Shaw.
I get your point - lately it seems as though every other month the Rays have a great pitcher get knocked out for the year. I will say Glasnow specifically is coming off TJS, pitched well and consistently once he joined the rotation, pitched regularly deep into games, and should be set to pitch 160-180 innings next year in a platform season. If you’re going to bet on a guy to stay healthy it would be Glasnow. He should at least be safer in terms of major arm or shoulder surgery, which would be the only case a QO would be taken out of the picture. This is why I don’t want him gone. We will see what the Rays can fetch, because he is definitely getting traded.
Shaw is not a target for the Rays at this valuation. He's a non-SS playing utility player for the Rays, and the Rays aren't paying $16MM trade value for that guy. As for Glasnow, if the Rays cannot get fair value for him, and that's between $15MM and $20MM of quality players (ie: not scrubs making league minimum), then the Rays should absolutely hold Glasnow and trade Aroz, Diaz, Margot and some relievers instead.
Shaw is overvalued? lol
That’s not what I said. I said he would be a utility player with the Rays who can’t play SS. He’s not beating out B.Lowe, I. Paredes, J.Caminero, C.Williams, or C.Mead for everyday playing time at 2B/3B with the Rays. As such, Rays are better served keeping Glas or trading for different players. $16MM is too much to pay for a non-SS playing utility player, particularly when the Rays have plenty of other options for that role.
When you say utility do you mean positional flexibility but without shortstop on the list? Or are you referring to his bat? Because I don’t see any reason to think his bat isn’t legit and he could be a starting 2B.
I’m saying Shaw isn’t beating out B.Lowe, I. Paredes, J.Caminero, C.Williams, or C.Mead for everyday playing time at 2B/3B with the Rays, and Shaw isn’t good enough in the field to play SS. That just leaves utility for Shaw. I have nothing against Shaw and I suspect he will be a good player, but the Rays have a lot of good players, particularly at 2B/3B. Adding Shaw isn’t a good use of roster resources.
I think by the time Shaw is ready for a starting job B. Lowe won’t be with the team…his option years are expensive, so he will be next out
Not so. The most B.Lowe will make under his current contract is $11.5MM. That's not really expensive, even for the Rays.
It depends on the production and what we are spending around him. It would be third most on team right now. Shaw has two more years in minors at least most likely. I don’t think the Rays make a trade decision based on the last year of a player’s contract that they can likely move (as they often do).
Two to three years is a lifetime when talking prospects, but I expect Mead, Caminero or C.Williams to be manning 2B after B.Lowe right now, depending on Franco's availability and B.Taylor's development. I don't think it matters though for purposes of this discussion. My main point is that the Rays have a ton of top 2B/3B prospects. Shaw isn't an elite defender, which the Rays want at SS, so he would just be another current or likely future top 100 prospect the Rays have collected at 2B/3B. I'd rather see the Rays acquire pitching or farther out high upside prospects in any trade of Glasnow.
Agree 100%. The Rays don't need a middle infield prospect in the upper minors. They need a SP in the upper minors. Walls was worth 2 bWAR in 99 games last year, and should be penciled in as the SS until Wander's situation is resolved. After that, they'll have their choice of Caminero or Williams at SS. None of those guys would be leapfrogged by Shaw, and neither Lowe, Mead, or Paredes would be leapfrogged either. Your thoughts are my thoughts on this subject.
Well, if two great minds like ours are thinking the same, then it must be true. ;)
Cubs farm system is ranked #1-6, depending on who you want to believe. Shaw is my #1 prospect (over PCA). Best pure hitter since Bryant. No one’s untouchable, but this trade would be as bad or worse than Jimenez and Cease for Quintana, imo.
mp on 11/25: “I know some Rays really like him [Shaw].” mp on 11/25: “Shaw is not a target for the Rays at this valuation [$16m for top 50 prospect].” 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I obviously meant "Rays fans" in the first line.
That was the worst gotcha attempt ever lol.
Jed won’t be selling Shaw at $16m (a significantly lagging indicator of his true value) when he’ll be properly valued at $30m+ by the end of the winter. Keep this receipt.
Another crap offer for an all star
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Ray's never had ANY intentions on paying him $25m this year and that much for a guy that averages 60 innings per season is a huge risk. I doubt his real life value is even 16m. Ray's will be lucky to get anything close to the bottom of a top 100 prospect for him.
You saw what Verlander and Scherzer got, right? And they are owed A LOT more, missed more time in 2023, were pretty bad, and aren't in their 20s. Glasnow is, is healthy, and most importantly, is actually good. If Glasnow was a FA and would only sign a 1 year deal, $50M is certainly doable. Look at Bauer's short deal, and he was known as a piece of shit by teammates long before he was accused of crimes that get life sentences. Glasnow probably doesn't get traded. A lot easier ways to get $20M off that roster. But if he does, it's not because they want to shed $. It's because a valuable package of future talent has blown them away.
Both Verlander and Scherzer threw more innings than Glasnow last year so they did not miss more time. Scherzer and Verlander's contracts also allow more team control to Houston and Texas. The mets also paid the contracts down a significant amount. Any team that would pay a pitcher whose career high in innings pithed is 120 50 million is nuts. Also if you think verlander and scherzer were pretty bad last year might want to look at their stats from last year.
Scherzer's FIP was 4.32 and his xFIP was 4.02 and provided 2.2 fWAR in 27 starts. That's great...for a #3 SP. Verlander only K'd 21% of the batters he faced, had a 4.56 xFIP with a 3.85 FIP. That's great for a #4 SP. Glasnow K'd 33% of the batters he faced, had a 2.75 xFIP and 2.91 FIP. One of these guys is dominant, while the other 2 are owed a shit load of money for several years to be #4 starters for the twilight of their career.
i see you ignored that they pitched more, have more team control and the mets paid it down quite a bit. To expect what the mets got back for 120 innings of Glasnow is unrealistic unless Tampa kicks in some cash which i doubt. I also think it would be dumb to trade him.
More team control on 42 year olds with FIPS, xFIPs, and xERA almost 2 runs higher than the previous year isn't a good thing. You'd the only GM in baseball that expects more out of Verlander and Scherzer in 2024 than Glasnow.
Not saying Glasnow wont pitch more than 120 innings than but he never has. Which is why no GM is giving you what the mets got. $208,000 per inning. I never said i expect more from verlander and scherzer.
What he did, and what he will do is very different. An oblique kept him from 170 innings last year with a FIP under 3. Being 42 will keep Verlander from 150 innings next year with a FIP under 4.5