Guardians & Cardinals
Submitted by: antonetticooks
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carlson | 24 | Majors | OF | Low | 3.4 | 43.4 | 25.2 | 18.2 | 14.6 | 18.2 | 21.8 | |
| Ivan Herrera | 23 | Majors | C | 6.4 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 8.9 |
Total Value:
25.6
Cardinals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 28 | Majors | SP | Medium | 2.4 | 36.9 | 11.6 | 25.3 | 20.3 | 25.3 | 30.4 |
Total Value:
25.3
Comments
3Carlson is trending toward being a bust and Cleveland is amply set at C now so Herrera isn't a need. If you consider Cleveland's situation they cannot trade either Civale or Bieber without getting some SP in return even if it's guys like Liberatore or Graceffo. This deal just doesn't do anything but hurt Cleveland as it is.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Carlson is a bust? He has a 103 wRC+ while being unlucky and plays solid to above average defense. He had a 2.7 fWAR in 2021 and 2.6 fWAR in 2022. I would say he's about a 2.3-2.4 win player which is what Kwan is on pace for right now. Brennan is on pace for 1.4 fWAR. Carlson is definintly better than Brennan and Straw doesn't need any explaining. Also, Carlson is younger than Brennan and Kwan and has seen an uptick in his barrel% and hard hit%. He's anything but trending toward a bust and would neck and neck with Kwan for the best outfielder on Cleveland. I could see the argument that Herrera isn't the best option because he's a bat first catcher that would be the backup to Naylor. That's fine, but I like Herrera's bat and think him and Bo would be a good platoon. If they trade Bieber, then yes they will need a pitcher that can fill in coming back. I don't see the need with Civale because it's Allen replacing him and they're pretty comparable. Bieber/Bibee/Williams/Allen is fine. If they feel the need to trade for a pitcher to help with inning limits, I'm cool with that. Ideally guys like Freeman/Martinez or a bullpen arm would bring back a rental or one with 1.5 years of control.
Carlson is carrying an OPS+ of 97 which is 3 points below league average. He's slugging .373 while Brennan is slugging .393 and trending up after a slow start to this season. Last season Brennan posted an OPS+ of 159 and slugged .500 in his first taste of MLB. According to BR, Carlson has produced .7 WAR so far this season while Brennan has produced .9. Brennan is less than a year older than Carlson and has a fraction of the big league AB as Carlson. When you look at their minor league numbers Carlson had 1743 PA and slashed 263/353/435/788. Brennan had 1283 PA and slashed 296/367/435/801. I'm not giving up Civale for a lesser player than Brennan. I'd rather take a chance on Adell at a significantly lower cost than Carlson. Cleveland has discovered that Fry is an ample back up C and more. He's quickly claiming the super utility role. Civale's ERA+ is 161. League average is 100. Allen's is 119 so he's not replacing Civale. Especially if you consider that Allen may face an innings limit, McKenzie might not pitch another game this season and Quantrill won't return until the end of this month at best. Any SP being traded has to have a SP or 2 coming back unless other deals are making that happen.