Rays & Padres
Submitted by: elurz
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | 29 | Majors | RP | Very low | 0.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | |
| Blake Snell | 30 | Majors | SP | Very low | 0.4 | 12.6 | 6 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 7.9 | |
| Juan Soto | 24 | Majors | OF | Medium | 1.4 | 90.4 | 42.9 | 47.5 | 38 | 47.5 | 57 |
Total Value:
57.7
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 28 | Majors | OF | Low | 3.4 | 90.1 | 33.1 | 57 | 45.6 | 57 | 68.4 | |
| Austin Shenton | 25 | Minors | 3B | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Total Value:
57.9
Comments
10For those who don’t pay attention to Rays news there have been rumblings of discontent between Randy and our future star Wander Franco. There have also been trade rumors last season, and he is clearly unhappy watching his play this month. This is a change of scenery trade, not a complete sell for Padres because they get an immediate MLB contribute who they can control multiple seasons and possibly extend if it’s a fit. The Rays get two needed pitchers and a player who is much better MLB contributor for their playoff run. They would be trading Aroz over the off-season anyway, now they could (and probably would) trade a year of Soto to recoup prospects.
I see your point about investing too much in a team that hasn’t shown a lot lately. But I still want to win this year and I don’t see next year being some magical different story. Soto in the off-season should have some trade value, so he could fetch prospects back and we could trade from our current trove for catcher or other needs. We are in a division race, if we could step in and try to shake it up in to win the division, my feeling is you do it. Points taken on all three possibly Nelson Cruz-ing us. But I would rather go for it than throw up our hands (which is what minor moves basically is in my mind) and hope for next year, when next year we might not even be competing for a division.
If the Rays acquire Soto, I would be surprised if they flipped him in the offseason. Rather, they'd probably keep him and move guys like Margot and B.Lowe to free up cash. Also, don't forget that Soto comes with QO draft pick compensation, so the Rays could keep him throughout 2024 and then receive a high draft pick when he departs via free agency. The last QO pick turned into McClanny, so it's a pretty valuable pick.
That’s what I would do if I was them, keeping in mind if Soto was producing and the Rays were out of it at the deadline they could move him for pieces closer to the majors. But can you think of a Rays team that paid Glasnow 25 million and Soto 30? And I think we will need Glasnow more.
Or we could extend Soto? Holy shit I make myself laugh. I just spat diet Pepsi all over my keyboard. I really don't want an outfield of Josh Lowe and Harold Ramirez next year, so I hope we bring Soto back if we get him.
I mean, you’re arguing really well why they can and should have the money for this deal. I know how cheap they are, I’ve been a fan since I attended the second game ever. I’ve been along through all these years, all these disappointing trade deadlines. I’m not expecting this trade would ever happen, I’m simply making the argument the deal is what is needed for the team. Padres need a shot in the arm, Rays need pitching and to fix the clubhouse, Randy needs a change of scenery. Seems to work on a lot of levels. Will it happen? Probably not. But most deals proposed on here don’t happen, it’s more armchair GMs debating the merit. Actually spending too much time on what the Rays (especially) WILL do is too depressing. They’ll never win a championship for the reasons you just outlined.
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So out of curiosity are you loaning Stu the money for this trade? Lol cause that's taking on around $15-$20M this season, I don't ever see the Rays doing that IMO. Money aside for the trade part it would be a hard pass to me, TB would be trading their most valuable trade piece for 3 guys that won't be on the team next year, it wouldn't be a smart move. Soto struggled when he first got to SD so if he does that in Tampa then it's Nelson Cruz all over again, Snell tends to be a bit of a head case, he's been dominate lately but he's been very up and down since they traded him, Hader I wouldn't have any concerns with cause even for a reliever he's always been reliable. If the vibe was different I could see going for this trade but even adding these guys I don't see it changing the dynamics much, what's going on just isn't a better players fix, add in Eflin probably going down and it would be best to just stick to minor deals, try to get in the playoffs and roll the dice then this offseason use Arozarena to get some important pieces like a catcher and high end pitching.
Forgot to address the money. If they could afford Ohtani and apparently have no restrictions (as an article mentioned), then they could afford this trade. I’ve had enough of excusing the crying poor of our ownership - they can afford this trade especially if it’s the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.
But I think the problem is your believing the Rays FO smoke screen, they were in on Ohtani about as much as they were really going to sign Freeman, no team ever ends up in 2nd place of deals this much unless they are purposely doing it. Miami has right now a $104M payroll, TB has a $74M, even though the attendance is probably similar and TB probably has a better TV contract yet Miami has a $30M more, almost 40% higher payroll, if the Rays were really as poor as they claim then why would they be looking to put a new stadium right back in Pinellas County where they claim to be going broke at? Its because the ownership and FO are full of shit, profits come before winning, I said many months ago that no matter what happens the Rays have the perfect excuse come the deadline, if they had the best record in baseball then why add pieces, you would make small trades that don't add much to the payroll cause you're already the best team. If they slide like they have well then this team isn't good enough to go all in on so it's just small trades to try to turn it around and be "competitive", either way they have their built in excuses why they won't make big trades and take on salary... but just wait, now that Lynn is gone it'll be someone else that they end up in 2nd place for #RaysLighting
I like the possibility, if Randy is the problem in the clubhouse. Otherwise, I'd prefer to acquire the pitchers with prospects, not a productive major leaguer making next to nothing and having 3 more years of control. Also, it should be noted that one of the things that make Randy so valuable is the fact that his splits aren't extreme. In fact, he's hitting LHP and RHP almost equally well this year (131 wRC+ to 132 wRC+). Soto has much more extreme splits, hitting 107 wRC+ against LHP and 173 wRC+ against RHP. So while Soto may be a better player, the Rays may feel Randy fits their team better. Still, if Randy is a clubhouse issue, then moving him makes sense.