Cubs & Mets
Submitted by: raldaz
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | 28 | Majors | 1B | DH | Low | 1.3 | 38.3 | 26.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 14.3 |
Total Value:
11.9
Mets
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Kilian | 26 | Majors | SP | 6.3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | ||
| Luke Little | 22 | Minors | SP | 2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.4 | |||||
| Matt Mervis | 25 | Majors | 1B | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
Total Value:
6.8
Comments
55+ years of control for a bat like Mervis is worth more than 3.5 million in value. Honestly, it would be a steal by the Mets and help to make up the trade loss of PCA to Chicago (Baez deal in 2021).
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
His value is derived from the fact that he has not been a highly rated prospect, is old for the level, offers negative defensive value, and was atrocious in his first stint at the MLB level (-0.6 fWAR, 46 WRC+).
I would counter that many prospects will have their development skewed by 1-2 years due to the effects of COVID on sports. Mervis being a two way athlete shows a degree of athleticism and he would likely be an average defender (so far, his brief stint in MLB was a positive value). Furthermore, many, if not most, prospects come up only to fail and return, or the team just suffers through their initial exposure. Mervis has shown the ability to adapt and adjust, flying through three levels of MiLB last year, and a swing adjustment upon his return to Iowa this year. Bottom line: Mervis has a floor of a 2nd division, long side platoon starter. If that assessment and his health holds up, his minimal value would be 2-5 WAR over the course of his controllable years...a much greater value of WAR (15mil per unit) than this site (3.5 million in total).
But you're assuming the outcome there is the best-case scenario. No one can assume that. You have to calculate all the scenarios, including the bust scenario, which is dominant for most prospects, especially the lower-rated ones. Yes, we know that prospect development is not linear, and many fail in their first callups; however, the fact of that failure skews the most probable outcome toward the negative side of the spectrum.
...and somehow Mervis's value on the site goes from 3.5 to 9 overnight (right in the neighborhood I expected). I understand the bust likelihood, but hitters in AAA (littered with AAAA type talent, and rising prospects) with OBP consistently above .400 for extended times, exhibit a solid skill set that trends toward MLB success (at least in confined periods). Even if Mervis' value jumped to 15 on this site, that would only reflect a WAR of ONE...very achievable and likely.