Edwin Diaz. Jose Altuve. Rhys Hoskins. Gavin Lux. Brendan Rodgers. All are injured and out for significant portions of the 2023 season (in the cases of Diaz, Hoskins and Lux, it looks like the entire season), so their respective teams would be wise to test the trade market for replacement help. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ rotation has been decimated, at least temporarily. Luis Severino, Carlos Rodon, and Frankie Montas are all on the IL. Clarke Schmidt has gone from likely bullpen arm to...

Should the Red Sox sell this summer? Many Sox fans here at BTV seem to think so – we’re seeing a plethora of proposals with rental players going out the door.  So let’s take a look at the situation, what those players might return, and whether that strategy makes sense for them. The situation The Red Sox are off to a terrible start. As of this writing, they’re in fourth place, 13 games behind the hot-starting Yankees, with Tampa Bay and Toronto also looking like...

In the first installment of this series, we looked at the Christian Yelich trade, which seemed fair on paper at the time, but turned out disastrously for the Marlins. In the second, we looked at the Josh Donaldson trade, which looked incredibly lopsided on paper (using the numbers we have now), and in fact turned out that way as well. Now let’s take a look at one that may be… fair all around? Note: Since this site (and our model) didn’t exist when these trades occurred, we...

In the second edition of our podcast series, BTV editors John Bitzer and Joshua Iversen address the rumors about a potential Wil Myers deal to the Red Sox, and what it might look like; highlight our featured trade of the week, which includes a Kris Bryant move; and break down three of the most significant trades so far this offseason. Listen to the episode here in the player, click the link below to download or find it on your favorite podcast provider! Any questions or comments? Email us at...

Curious to hear more about how we look at trade valuation at BTV? Check out our debut podcast, or download it below (coming soon to iTunes, Spotify, and other major podcast providers): *** Click this link to download to your device! *** BTV editors John Bitzer and Joshua Iversen discuss how we go about valuing major-leaguers, prospects, and tweeners; why sometimes the values change on the site; our analysis of the Mookie Betts trade; how the site’s model is doing vs. real-life trades;...

When news broke on Feb. 4 of the [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="7685"]trade to the Dodgers, there was an avalanche of media coverage. As is typical, it started with the news, then was followed by a slew of analyses about what the trade meant for each team. Here at BTV, we just sat back and waited. Why? Not only was the trade not yet official; the reports were also missing one of the most important pieces of the puzzle: how much money was Boston paying to cover the remaining $96M...

It’s mid-January; time to take stock. How is our model doing vs. real life?   As of January 18: Total trades: 36 Total trades accepted by our model: 30 Acceptance rate: 83.3% Variance: +/- 4.2 Basically, the model has been right five out of every six trades, and overall the numbers have held up reasonably. As a reminder, we keep a running tally of all trades, log each one individually on our site, and keep score via these tracker updates, so you can see how the model is faring...

Recently, on an episode of MLB Tonight, John Smoltz was asked to compare the difference between signing Josh Donaldson or trading for [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="7589"]. His response was, to paraphrase: Donaldson doesn’t cost anything in prospects, but if Arenado was available? You’d have to “back up the truck.” In other words, he thinks trading for Arenado would cost a huge prospect haul. With all due respect to Smoltz, he is not a GM. He assumes...

Update on 2/8/20: We've adjusted Maeda's value up a little based on the latest PECOTA projections. Others involved did not change materially. Update on 2/6/20: Based on new information being reported by Ken Rosenthal, we've downgraded Brusdar Graterol's valuation. Update on 2/5/20: Yes, Mookie's value was high. The Red Sox did well in the Betts/Price trade. Here's why: Assuming the Red Sox are covering about half of David Price's salary in the Betts trade (which is what Ken Rosenthal is...

If you’re a GM, this is the list you don’t want to have your players on. According to our calculations, the following 50 players have the least amount of trade value right now – or, put another way, the most amount of negative value. These are not necessarily bad players; they’re players whose contracts are bigger than their projected field value. Not surprisingly, the common thread here is that most of them are older and past their prime. Only eight of these 50...