Surplus Value and the Win Curve

Are all wins created equal?

The BTV Podcast #110: Breaking Down All the Latest Deals

Burnes, Luzardo, Naylor and More...

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The BTV Podcast #109: Making Sense of All Those Trades

We break down deals for Crochet, Tucker, Gimenez and more.

Featured Trades

Mets GET

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

21.2

Total Value

21.2

Blue Jays GET

Ronny Mauricio

10.4

Brett Baty

7.5

Blade Tidwell

5.2

Jonah Tong

4.9

Total Value

28

cras951

Padres GET

Dean Kremer

13.7

Heston Kjerstad

21.9

Total Value

35.60

Orioles GET

Dylan Cease

33.6

Total Value

33.6

mapetillo11

Cardinals GET

Triston Casas

29.9

Kutter Crawford

27

Total Value

56.9

Red Sox GET

Nolan Arenado

-16.6

Ryan Helsley

12.1

Ivan Herrera

38.4

Cash

20

Total Value

53.9

Cantone832

Pirates GET

Kevin Alcantara

17.2

Total Value

17.2

Cubs GET

Joey Bart

9

David Bednar

2.4

Hunter Barco

5.8

Total Value

17.2

jamesrobert

NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!

Shawn Bergeron

0

We often view the business of baseball as separate from the product on the field. We find ourselves wondering why all 30 teams aren’t aggressively pursuing upgrades in free agency every offseason in a quest for the title. We wonder why there aren’t more small-market teams behaving like last year’s Royals, who used free agency to go from 56 wins to the playoffs. What’s stopping every team from doing the same? As fans, we measure success in wins. This is true at both the...

johnbitzer

0

We recently updated the values on our site, which is normal for us around this time of year. The purpose is to correlate to the market, using free agent contracts as a kind of going rate for our dollars-per-projected-WAR calculations. If the first batch of free agents is skewing high, it may be an indication that our initial assumptions were low on that basis. Why is that? Most of it is inflation. We assume a 3% inflation rate, which is the long-term average. However, as you probably know,...

Epsiode 110

112 Minutes

0

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down all the action around the holidays, including first basemen like Christian Walker, Josh Naylor and Paul Goldschmidt finding new homes, Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies, Corbin Burnes to the Diamondbacks and much more. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or...

Epsiode 109

116 Minutes

Joshua Iversen

0

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down a flurry of trades around the Winter Meetings, including Garrett Crochet to Boston, Kyle Tucker to Chicago, Andres Gimenez to Toronto and more. Then, they run through all the free agent signings, including Juan Soto's record deal with the Mets. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or...

Epsiode 108

108 Minutes

Joshua Iversen

0

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down the Jonathan India/Brady Singer trade, Blake Snell to the Dodgers, Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels and more offseason news. Then, they discuss the non-tender deadline and offseason outlooks of the Dodgers and the New York Yankees. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or download link...